The new terminal hasn’t been constructed in TPA yet; don’t think it’s fair to assume Delta is finished there. “At minimum” Delta is taking 6 gates with room to expand in the primary intl. terminal with many Skyteam partners. If an outstation were to get a Delta One lounge it would be TPA or AUS in the 5-10 yr outlook would be my guess.

Delta’s TPA operation alone is larger than United’s MCO operation. Factor in DL v UA MCO/TPA combined operation:

United Market Share: MCO 7% TPA 10%
Delta Market Share: MCO 12% TPA 17%

The disparity grows steeply when you factors in Skyteam v Star Alliance and JV’s.

Delta is of course focusing on already established hubs: SEA and BOS.. AUS seems to be the primary focus with RDU a second. The argument that hub proximity equates to failure has been disproven many times. TPA would never be a major hub, more of a mini-hub with emphasis on O&D that compliments/relieves ATL traffic.

If Delta didn’t have such an excessively diverse domestic fleet I imagine a 320 or 737 base would already exists in MCO/TPA. Fun read below..

https://simpleflying.com/us-airports...l-legacy-hubs/

 

Not many stats there but I noticed since then (December) delta has gone from projecting decent growth to being flat. Not saying Tampa can't be one of their "focus cities" but they clearly have to prioritize other cities. Another older article about how SEA is a struggle for them https://onemileatatime.com/news/delt...g-seattle-hub/ and I'm sure they have competition from jetblue in Boston, and southwest in Austin too.

If the revenue environment gets even worse, they're going to have to put all growth plans on pause/stopped altogether to not get investors upset. Basically the United issue in somewhere other than a hub too.

I don't think it's a coincidence that on this previous crew resource update, the company basically said they hope that the satellite bases shrink from natural attrition.

 

Thats exactly why big airplanes fly there. You cant run a 319 there because yields are so low. You have to get as many seats as possible with the low fares paid.

 

thr last vacancy, they were ok to let Houston and Orlando attrit by 10 737 CA. (I think Houston may have been 20?).

so, they are fine letting both of those shrink a bit for now. Who knows when they will grow again?

 

??? I don’t think any of us have heard anything like that. Can you cite your source?

 

Well I think with houston it's balancing with the airbus. Cleveland, Vegas, and Orlando almost seem like they won't be backfilled for more than a year. I guess we will see with the next vacancy bid. I heard we're expecting one in May.

 

Informal Q&A last year with a NH class. To clarify, management didn’t say it explicitly, of course, but alluded to the possibility of it

 

So if anyone has more details please fill in my gaps. But, at TK last month was told the uptake of first year Capts that were awaiting 500 hrs in type is now near 100% which was not the case when CA bids were plentiful and guys were backing out? So UAL will end up with a significant surplus of 737 Capts after all. Again, if anyone is more knowledgeable in this please fill in the details.

 

Got it. So I will file it with the rumor of 30,000 pilots on the seniority list by 2030…

I really don’t want to give perspective pilots that Orlando is anything more than a station that has a small 737 only pilot base for flying to and from the other hubs.

Orlando is not a hub. It’s not planned to be a hub. It wouldn’t be a good hub for reasons discussed in this thread. It could close at any time (like SEA, MIA, and HNL did). Where you plan to live is perhaps the biggest consideration when picking a major airline. I wouldn’t pick United if I lived in Florida. You’re probably better off choosing American (MIA) or Delta (ATL).

 

No specific/inside details but looks like the 737 fleet is still growing steadily throughout the year according to the SEC filing. I can't imagine there's going to be many upgrades still after the last couple years. I wouldn't say a significant surplus but it seems as if the surplus will be there cutting 4% capacity by the end of the year although it might hit the airbus fleet more.

Upgrades will probably stay pretty senior if/when vacancies happen. Secondary vacancies probably will still happen as the 787 deliveries still happen.