The Chicago-based carrier said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday that it is cutting domestic capacity by about 4% starting in the third quarter of 2025, "in response to the current demand environment." The airline's third quarter covers July, August and September, traditionally a peak travel period.

 

Kirby also said that they released two forecasts.

Recession, $7-9/EPS full year guidance

No recession, $13-15/EPS full year.

Projecting a profit in a recession. Think about it. The sky is not falling as much as you seem to want it to.

In this business you should always have your house in order. The real black swan events happen suddenly and without warning. Covid should’ve taught everyone that.

 

That's not 4% from current flying. Its 4% from future published schedule, which is more than it is currently. This was clarified after the filing by Nocella when he was asked about it specifically. Obviously we have new hire classes still running and scheduled to continue. If we were cutting 4% from current, they would probably stop hiring for the rest of the year.

Quote from an interview...

The company is planning to cut capacity as a result of slowing economic growth. Chief commercial officer Andrew Nocella says it intends to reduce utilisation of its narrowbody by roughly 2% in coming quarters, ”effectively lowering our domestic capacity by two points”, he says.

Its only "domestic capacity" being reduced but international will still grow as we've announce new routes and new 787s are being delivered.

Also they said on the earnings call that Basic Economy is bringing in more revenue than expected and they plan to offer more tickets at that price level to stimulate demand.

 

Sure. I was being sarcastic in response to the "sky is falling" crowd or person, rather.

 

Thank you for proving my exact point about no hiring. If you reduce your growth estimate by 4% you reduce your projected pilot need. Thank you again!!!

And FYI, they also talked about retiring 767 and 777 if Economy goes south.

 

SK literally said we are going to continue hiring.. The planned hiring for the rest of the year is smaller than Q1 because that’s how it was planned since last year. It’ll be something like a class a month IIRC.

Do you post anything positive or have any positive outlook? Idk what your malfunction is, but we’re still forecasted to make a profit in a recession. That should create some breathing room for you

 

Oldest 767 (641UA) is 34 years old, built in 1991…….Oldest 777 (777UA) is 30 years old. Those airplanes both want to be retired, tomorrow if convenient. Approximately 134 787-9/10’s on firm order. Got one on Thursday, check the MX ramp at Dulles. Its the big shiny one..

 

I just flew 777UA not too long ago and it didn't say anything to me about wanting to retire, and we hauled way more cargo than a 787 can.

 

They're paid off and print money for UA so I doubt they will get retired until suitable replacements or a huge black swan occurs.

Airplanes can be flown nearly forever if you're willing to do the maintenance...just look at the C-5s and B-52s.

 

you could have also used your old Motorola flip phone forever. At some point it does t make any sense any more. Apparently, the old planes are still profitable to operate. They’d be gone otherwise. Maybe they provide “spill capacity” 🤣