Putting a low CASM plane on the routes to minimize losses? Giving people signing up for the loyalty program enough seats to use their miles on?

No one doubts there's lots of traffic to/from Orlando. Just that it doesn't make sense to put a hub there when the business traffic isn't there to put tons of flights there to smaller cities that would justify smaller planes.

Might as well just keep building the hubs to increase the profits there.

 

Which was the original point. MCO would be a hub AFTER the current hubs are maximized

 

Totally agree with your analysis. The problem UAL management has is, if you put five 750 mile radius circles around all 7 of UAL's hubs you end up with a big glaring hole in the Southeast (where DAL probably makes 50% of it's system wide profits). And if you transverse any of those 7 UAL hubs it becomes readily apparent that most are now bursting at the seams. UAL will go somewhere and I would argue the Southeast is its last frontier. But (and a big but) UAL probably wont step on DAL's toes and try and establish a true Southeast hub, but more likely a smaller regional hub in the periphery (FLA or nearby). 400 more Max's and 150+ A321's are coming and they will need a home, somewhere.

 

At best that's 5+ years away. All the terminal construction is going on at most of the hubs currently which will definitely take the first priority.

And by then who knows what areas of the country are growing/shrinking or rich/poor to focus on. I wouldn't expect orlando to be a big part of the company with those odds.

 

Didn’t Delta objectively do better (making more) coming out of COVID? Can anyone say for sure retiring those 777’s was a mistake? United absolutely seems more aggressive as of late, but aggression doesn’t equal success. Although, United is clearly succeeding lately taking advantage of overlap from AA and WN.

I’m positive any competitor would take advantage of each other if they have the resources to do so; I’m sure would Delta would jump on United if they made a mistake in LAX and I believe, DL and AA will everything in their power to keep UA from establishing a full sized hub in the Southwest U.S. I see Delta getting their AUS “mini” hub up and running post terminal-B construction before a MCO hub for any legacy.

Management teams come and go. EB already has backups in place for his leave and SK is past his midpoint. Will be interesting to see how the next management teams bring the companies

 

ATL is better geographically and is actually a major city with great wealth and CLT is just a cheap city for American to squeeze flights into. MCO doesn't really have either of those.

Also at this point i'd say it's a big stretch to say that those planes coming in are growth. With the current administration and economic climate hurting aviation heavily i'd say it's very likely those planes are replacements. It's still growth to replace an older 319 with a new 321NEO with cheaper CASM too. Might just be replacing the RJs too at some point doing the same routes with more seats.

 

Wouldn’t count Orlando out just yet. MCO was named fastest growing city in the US last year alone. ATL at the moment definitely has a more robust economy for business, but who knows where Orlando is headed. If the growth plans continue for Orlando like it’s planned too and the hubs are utilized to maximum capacity in about the same time frame then MCO is primed for a hub. Primarily to compete with AA out of MIA and DL out of ATL.

I think it’s why DL is doubling down on TPA? Time will tell with that move though. Should be interesting to say the least

 

Who knows where Orlando is headed?

Probably for more low fare leisure travel with all of the retirees, remote workers, and low to average income hospitality workers moving to that part of the state. Those people ain't paying a premium to fly.

The big spenders who drive Bentleys and RRs tend to end up closer to waterfront areas like Naples, FTL, WPB, etc...all for one simple reason: it's nicer with easy ocean access.

If you had multiple millions, are you really moving to Orlando?

I'm not trying to throw shade, it's a decent place to be middle class in the outlying areas, but c'mon man it's Orlando lol.

 

400 Max's and 150 321's minus all the retirements that are coming up. The 757's are already scheduled to go once we get enough XLR's. The original NG's are getting close to retirement age (oldest is 27 years). And the end state of the Bus Fleet is going to be all 321, roughly the same size that the 319/320 fleet size was at its peak.

So in 5 -10 years the "where to put all these planes" is going to be self correcting. Outside world events can make it happen even faster by parking planes and deferring orders.

Has there been growth? For sure. Will there be more? That's the plan. But its not like all the planes ordered are for growth only.

 

Can't really compete with Miami. It's just so much better with latin flying. But i'm not counting Orlando out yet. Just that so many things can change in 5-10 years. As for Delta in TPA, they're not doing that much. They're more focused on AUS, BOS, RDU, and SEA. Just because they have a lounge in the terminal doesn't mean much. With where ATL is in their network, they'll basically never add another hub/focus city that competes with that.