This 100% tells me you haven't been around very long. It always happens. If people stop traveling how on earth do you thing UAL or anyone else deals with that. United Next startegy?? Doesn't work when nobody is flying.

We were supposed to hire 2000 this year. Thats been cut to around 700. Come August its all going to dry up. Writing is on the wall. These crazy 4 years are not the norm.

 

If massive cuts come then the costs outway the savings. United next may have planned for a downturn it didnt plan for a world wide trade war. When people stop traveling for vacation Orlando gets pummeled. Usually its a sector, not the entire world. Unless something gets fixed very soon I would plan for very bad times ahead for the airlines . Delta is already 5 steps ahead as usual.

Back to original point. I dont think MCO is closing either, but it has a better chance of that then becoming an Intl hub. That was my entire point.

 

My friend, times are changing. All of Florida has been the recipient of a massive population and wealth transfer over the past decade, more than likely from the northern state you occupy. That trend is only accelrating and I think UAL management, which is the most competent that I've seen in my 30 years, is savy enough to position for that. We sure know DAL has been riding that wave. Not to mention reshoring will probably turbocharge most of the US enconomy starting in 2026.It will most negatively affect the couple hundred generational wealth families in the US that have benefited most in the past 4 decades of outsourcing labor to China, who fly on business jets. The average US traveling family will only benefit from this trend.

As for your post about preparing for 3-4 years of recession. Thats pretty comical. A recession is defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP. One quarter is 3 months in case your unaware. In the modern era (post 1945) the vast majority of recession are 2 or 3 quarters of negative GDP growth.

 

Sorry, will rephrase. Economic depression, that better? Ever been through a world trade war??

Why would anybody bring any factory to the US with nobody wanting to work thwre and knowing trump is out in 3 years??? Plus costs going up 3 fold on whatever they make. Nobody is going to do that. Wake up.

Good try on the florida comment. Lived there 35 years, recently left. Back about 10 times a year. Lots of friends and family there. Sure they have some tech and medical but tourism is by far and away the bread and butter.. Florida sits about 30th in the US in household income, crushing it!! The yields are LOW, really not that hard to understand. You won't find a single full fare paying first class ticket going there. First is all upgrades.
Florida is one of the first to get crushed in economic downturn, always has been. That isn't going to change.

 

Pretty sure they changed that during the last administration because they had 2 quarters of GDP contraction but they wouldn’t use the R word.

 

I check loads 3-2 days out for my commutes. Not a lot of first class to and from MCO. So saying FC is all upgrades is objectively wrong. Maybe certain time slots FC might not be totally booked, but it’s not all upgrades like you’ve stated. If this was the case, DL, an airline that deals with a “premium” product wouldn’t double down on MCO.

There has been such growth in the last 5-10 years that it’s not just people coming here to visit grandma or Mickey Mouse. The housing market exploded with new construction and every house sells (no, not just from Blackrock). I follow what city and county leaders are trying to do regarding growth and they’ve done a good job executing their initiatives.

It seems like you’re bent out of shape about trying to sell the idea that Orlando is JUST tourism and it’s doomed. None of the numbers back up what you’re saying. Idk what Orlando did to hurt you, but relaaaaax, dude lol

 

Not a FLA cheerleader by any means, just under a year here (born in EU, raised in NE), no long term plans in FLA. But there is no way to debate the shear stats on what has happened in the Southeast and Southcentral US. There really isnt much to compare it to. Continuously looking far backwards at data about US demographics will get you in trouble. As Ray Crock (McDonalds) famously quiped, When your green you grow, when your ripe you rot.

Windshield big, rearview small. Read about the demographic trends in the US (I do) the Northeast especially, rapidly aging mean, extremely low births, etc, etc. Its all out there. The government Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out mountains off data if your interested. Pretty sure our C Suite in Willis Tower isreading. And yes, once those big Nvidia, Tiawan Semi, Honda and Apple plants get built over the next 24-36 I can almost guarantee you that they wont be shuttered in 4 years, even if Biden gets reelected. It's really, really difficult to think clearly when your entire world view is clouded by politics.

If your my advanced age I hope you have a financial adviser working with you on your long term investments and future plans. Ive seen good friends make bizarre decisions in the past few weeks based on TV personalities hysteria and opinions that will fundamentally alter thier retirements. Unfortunately you sound quite a bit like them. Politics suck. Cheers!

 

Delta 5 steps ahead? How’d they do coming out of Covid retiring fleets when we kept growing? This mgmt is not full of chicken littles
like you. There has been a paradigm shift and when there is blood in the water they attacked.

The sky is not falling, and any weakness shown by one of our competitors will be taken advantage of by this mgmt, which is a serious change in strategy from decades past.

 

Just from the outside looking in and not meaning to be a smarta** in any way. If yields are low to MCO what’s the reasoning to flying a 777 there daily and have also seen your new NEOs taxiing around.

 

Because people hear a talking point and there is no possible way that the situation can change.

there isn’t a soul on here who knows the yield and profit margins of MCO.