September Vacancy Bid (713 Total)
09-02-2025 | 08:59 PM
#31
Line Holder
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,200
Likes: 33
From: 777 CA
I don’t disagree but I don’t think there will be any SFO 777 displacements. the 787s aren’t coming fast enough to outpace attrition.
there are enough senior trash bag jumpers that the FO list will shrink from the top. Also there are a ton of “new hire” 777 FOs who have been riding 2 years of reserve I’m willing to bet we see enough Junior 777 FOs take the CA bid in NOV.
and if none of that happens the company has shown they are not afraid to crew other bases flying from over staffed bases.
there are enough senior trash bag jumpers that the FO list will shrink from the top. Also there are a ton of “new hire” 777 FOs who have been riding 2 years of reserve I’m willing to bet we see enough Junior 777 FOs take the CA bid in NOV.
and if none of that happens the company has shown they are not afraid to crew other bases flying from over staffed bases.
09-02-2025 | 11:14 PM
#32
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 308
Likes: 1
I would guess Quayle isn’t going to tip his hand until deliveries are assured.
supposedly 24 of the next 26 are being delivered with a high first class layout and low economy. So my guess is that they will replace the 767s in the same configuration and probably the 777s flying to high priced destinations (HND/LHR/ZRH/GVA/TLV/SIN)
then those planes will backfill be retired or fly somewhere new. The oldest 767s hit their HMVs next spring……that’s 20 frames.
supposedly 24 of the next 26 are being delivered with a high first class layout and low economy. So my guess is that they will replace the 767s in the same configuration and probably the 777s flying to high priced destinations (HND/LHR/ZRH/GVA/TLV/SIN)
then those planes will backfill be retired or fly somewhere new. The oldest 767s hit their HMVs next spring……that’s 20 frames.
09-03-2025 | 03:16 AM
#34
Redeye avoider
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 933
Likes: 14
From: 737 Captain
09-03-2025 | 07:39 AM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 3,599
Likes: 205
From: 787
The only senior trip even being mentioned as possibly going to the 787 is SYD and as a 777 CA currently in SFO I find SYD something I doubt will be going to sparky anytime soon, I don’t think it’s going to affect the top of the list. I personally think Europe will get the majority of the transfer flying. It sounds good saying that the 787 can have the extra weight but pallet count is the biggest factor in cargo capacity. It’s not just the weight. The schedules are loaded through next summer and SFO-SYD is still a 777
I don’t have the answers but let’s speak theoretically for a moment within reason.
lets say that the new 787-9s will carry 220 people. That’s about a 50 seat weight restriction built in. Now let’s assume you are able to sell 20 more first class seats and a few more purple seats at 10-15K a seat. Now there are also less economy seats to sell so now they are at a premium aswell. Then let’s assume that the 787 burns 20-25K less fuel per trip than the 777.
how much is that pallet worth that is being left behind? Vs the profit being made by flying people on the 787?
I’m not saying SYD is going to be the first market pulled for the High first class 787s but is probably in the top 5. SFO/LAX- SIN/LHR/HGK/TLV/SYD/MEL/HND…..probably in that order
09-03-2025 | 08:14 AM
#37
Line Holder
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,200
Likes: 33
From: 777 CA
O
ok so how weight restricted are you on average with the 777?
I don’t have the answers but let’s speak theoretically for a moment within reason.
lets say that the new 787-9s will carry 220 people. That’s about a 50 seat weight restriction built in. Now let’s assume you are able to sell 20 more first class seats and a few more purple seats at 10-15K a seat. Now there are also less economy seats to sell so now they are at a premium aswell. Then let’s assume that the 787 burns 20-25K less fuel per trip than the 777.
how much is that pallet worth that is being left behind? Vs the profit being made by flying people on the 787?
I’m not saying SYD is going to be the first market pulled for the High first class 787s but is probably in the top 5. SFO/LAX- SIN/LHR/HGK/TLV/SYD/MEL/HND…..probably in that order
I don’t have the answers but let’s speak theoretically for a moment within reason.
lets say that the new 787-9s will carry 220 people. That’s about a 50 seat weight restriction built in. Now let’s assume you are able to sell 20 more first class seats and a few more purple seats at 10-15K a seat. Now there are also less economy seats to sell so now they are at a premium aswell. Then let’s assume that the 787 burns 20-25K less fuel per trip than the 777.
how much is that pallet worth that is being left behind? Vs the profit being made by flying people on the 787?
I’m not saying SYD is going to be the first market pulled for the High first class 787s but is probably in the top 5. SFO/LAX- SIN/LHR/HGK/TLV/SYD/MEL/HND…..probably in that order
Just for reference SIN/MEL/TLV are 787 trips from SFO. AKL/BNE are seasonally swapped between the 777/787. 777 does the trips with higher capacity like SYD and more cargo like HKG which is twice/day on the 777-300ER. I have no idea what the future holds as we still have no true 777 replacement aircraft on order.
Who knows, maybe they’re considering cargo from the Asia region will continue to drop due to tariffs. Maybe they’re hedging their bets in case it does? Either way it’s a good thing continuing to see large WB CA positions on these bid.
09-03-2025 | 08:19 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 3,599
Likes: 205
From: 787
I often take off at 775,000 leaving HKG. Rarely leave anything behind but does require adjusting CI at times to make the numbers work.
Just for reference SIN/MEL/TLV are 787 trips from SFO. AKL/BNE are seasonally swapped between the 777/787. 777 does the trips with higher capacity like SYD and more cargo like HKG which is twice/day on the 777-300ER. I have no idea what the future holds as we still have no true 777 replacement aircraft on order.
Who knows, maybe they’re considering cargo from the Asia region will continue to drop due to tariffs. Maybe they’re hedging their bets in case it does? Either way it’s a good thing continuing to see large WB CA positions on these bid.
Just for reference SIN/MEL/TLV are 787 trips from SFO. AKL/BNE are seasonally swapped between the 777/787. 777 does the trips with higher capacity like SYD and more cargo like HKG which is twice/day on the 777-300ER. I have no idea what the future holds as we still have no true 777 replacement aircraft on order.
Who knows, maybe they’re considering cargo from the Asia region will continue to drop due to tariffs. Maybe they’re hedging their bets in case it does? Either way it’s a good thing continuing to see large WB CA positions on these bid.
absolutely!!
09-03-2025 | 09:43 AM
#39
Line Holder
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 516
Likes: 3
From: 787 right
May I ask a very dumb question:
For SFO 787 CAP for example we see that there are 155 pilots currently, and the min/max is at 182. Bingo 27 vacancies very straight forward.
There are 8 retirements scheduled from now until 1/30.
Do those 8 positions just get filled from a secondary vacancy? Or are those 8 positions covered by the 27 vacancies? Thus meaning there are only 19 “new” positions created.
For SFO 787 CAP for example we see that there are 155 pilots currently, and the min/max is at 182. Bingo 27 vacancies very straight forward.
There are 8 retirements scheduled from now until 1/30.
Do those 8 positions just get filled from a secondary vacancy? Or are those 8 positions covered by the 27 vacancies? Thus meaning there are only 19 “new” positions created.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
