Airhoss

You are not understanding the current situation. All of the "New hires" at LCAL at the moment are LUAL furloughees. However only about one in seven took the offer of employment at LCAL.

Therefore we still have approximately 1,000 pilots waiting in the wings not to mention the 400 or so now at LCAL who are STILL furloughed from LUAL. Wee have 300+ very senior voluntary furloughs who when they come back will be rightfully returning to their wide body captains seat which puts a major plug in at the top of the list as well. BTW only 15 of those guys are currently at LCAL so that leaves over 285 of them waiting to be recalled.

So LCAL for arguments sake starts hiring in October. We sign a JCBA at some point in the future lets say December. All of sudden these non LUAL guys who were hired in Oct, Nov and Dec have 1,000+ pilots pouring in on top of them. You the unlucky new hire will be squished into the the very very deepest bottom of the seniority list for the foreseeable future. now we have the slightest mouse fart in the economy and history tells us UAL will furlough like crazy it's a cultural thing here. Guess where Mr. new hire winds up? On the street for say a short decade? Roll the dice and take your chances here at UCH my friend. But don't say you weren't warned.

Dave Fitzgerald

I would think furloughs highly unlikely in any event, remember:

1.December 12th is rapidly approaching and LUAL has not adequately planned for it, as usual,
2. If the work rules end up like I think they are, LUAL, then LCO will immediately need a couple of hundred more bodies just to stay even

These two factors seem to point to continued hiring for the forseable future, but I've been wrong before.

Airhoss

Nobody can show you time that an airline furloughed for the sole reason of bringing back a senior person.

BECAUSE this is the first time in the history of the US airline industry that this situation has occurred. This is virgin ground.

Airhoss

Chris you completely and totally misunderstood this.

First off I am a Jr pilot at UAL. Secondly I am referring to any non UAL pilots who are considering hiring on when LCAL starts taking new hires in October. I am not speaking of any of the LUAL folks who took the LCAL offer of employment.

How you made the jump to "Wishing harm to the most screwed pilots" is not clear to me. In fact not only am I not wishing our furloughees harm I am trying in create awareness to the ****e sandwich that is going down in regards to our guys right now.

Big picture, LCAL is getting ready to hire off the street when LUAL still has guys on the street. This is wrong in so many ways!!

BTW Bypass is used specifically in the context of a furlough recall. If somebody did not take the LCAL offer that person simply refused a preferential offer of employment. Semantics obviously, but that's how I see it.

CheapFlyer

Then why are you predicting that it will happen here in this situation?

I think everyone that wishes to fly for UAL/CAL knows that they will be junior for quite a few years. If the company, combined or separate, eventually needs to furlough then yes, the junior will get furloughed. Everyone understands that.

You saying "folks that hire on to the LCAL side this fall are furloughed within 6 months due to the flood of recall guys" is 100% wrong.

Again, no one will get furloughed due to recalls. If there are furloughs, it will be due to something else.

slammer1906

Thats exactly right.. Hoss was making it seem like returning UAL folk would cause furloughs. Any new hire anywhere can expect to be jr for a long, long time....so what? Thats the name of the game.

SoCalGuy

I'm trying to follow the "true" numbers of L-UA Furloughs.

Does the 1400-ish number include the Vol-Furloughs, or exclude them??

If the Vol-Furloughs ARE included in the 1400-ish, and 400 of the 1400-ish took L-CAL offers, I come up with a much 'tighter' number than the "1:7" you draw above??

Can you please explain the 'accuracy'?

CheapFlyer

For those hopefuls wondering how the recalls will actually affect a new hire (NOT Hosss' dumb theory) .

1437 furloughs.
~400 already at CAL
~1000 still bypassing.

Out of the 1000 still bypassing, best guess based on history, is that 60% will come back. The combined company has approximately ~400 retiring a year. So for those that are new hires at CAL this fall and next spring plan on being at the absolute bottom for about 1.5 years. After that you should then progress up the list 'naturally' as the ~400 retirements a year continue. This is based on no growth, and no shrinkage.

YMMV.

Airhoss

1435 Furloughs. I don't know if that number includes voluntary guys but I am almost certain it does.

I've been told 1 in 7 I don't know the exact number of guys who took the LCAL deal or therefore if the 1 in 7 number is correct. I was trying make it simple using broad numbers. Obviously a mistake when dealing with pilot personalities. Please feel free to gather that information yourself as it is just as easy or difficult for you to it as it is for myself.

Which is besides the point obviously. The point is we've still got guys on furlough. We are hiring off the street before we bring those guys back. That is a problem, hopefully a short term problem.

It is also problematic for the guys who accept an offer of employment as they've got a bunch of guys filtering in above them. Which also a new precedent which AKAIK has not been experienced in the industry prior to this extremely unique situation. This something for anybody not already on the LUAL list accepting a job here in the near future to seriously consider plain and simple.

PS

I am going to be out of contact for a couple of days. I've got to help out a sick family member who lives in a very rural area and has no internet service. I'll be glad to continue this banter when I return. Until then.

cadetdrivr

Not quite.

Same thing happened at DAL a few years back with their off the street hiring while furloughed guys bypassed with their 10 year recall rights.