Vacancy Bid 1404V
12-15-2013 | 06:59 PM
#342
On Reserve
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 22
Likes: 0
Sled,
I agree with you. Those 05-06 hires are holding Captain so far out of seniority they are going to either be on reserve forever or they are going to get bumped by 67T FOs and Captains. I hope it doesn't happen, they personally don't deserve it, but if it does it does.
But in any case they are going to be junior for a LONG time. 50% of all Airbus FOs can hold guppy Captain and 75% of 76T FOs. Not to mention all the 76T Captains that can't hold 777 will have to go somewhere when bumped.
Yes there are new guppies coming online as replacement, but 76T FOs are sitting home getting 70+ hours to not fly and they are going to live that dream until they are forced out, then take their guppy Captain slot. That's in addition to the pilots who will bid those openings, including pilots being bumped out of the 747 FO in LAX, 777 FO in SEA, and other pilots that just bid.
I predict we will see a surplus on the guppy Captain position just like we are seeing on the other fleets. Won't be every domicile, but LAX and DEN (maybe even ORD) are prime candidates.
I agree with you. Those 05-06 hires are holding Captain so far out of seniority they are going to either be on reserve forever or they are going to get bumped by 67T FOs and Captains. I hope it doesn't happen, they personally don't deserve it, but if it does it does.
But in any case they are going to be junior for a LONG time. 50% of all Airbus FOs can hold guppy Captain and 75% of 76T FOs. Not to mention all the 76T Captains that can't hold 777 will have to go somewhere when bumped.
Yes there are new guppies coming online as replacement, but 76T FOs are sitting home getting 70+ hours to not fly and they are going to live that dream until they are forced out, then take their guppy Captain slot. That's in addition to the pilots who will bid those openings, including pilots being bumped out of the 747 FO in LAX, 777 FO in SEA, and other pilots that just bid.
I predict we will see a surplus on the guppy Captain position just like we are seeing on the other fleets. Won't be every domicile, but LAX and DEN (maybe even ORD) are prime candidates.
I do agree that no young 05/06 hire Captains will ever get bumped ever. That we agree, even though some wish that would happen, but no worries it won't. I would also disagree that there is going to be a tsunami of displacements from the 76fo to 73ca. There might be some but I predict very little to none. With the slow replacement of 73 to 76 there has been easy movement into 73 vacancies by senior 76ca. One can only move into the fleet with vacancies and there's plenty of 76 guys in line to hold it. The 76 staffing is getting sucked down from the top, leaving no need to displace. Down the road there might even be lual 76ca vacancies. 76fo's will be waiting a long time before getting into a 73ca seat. By that time there'll be enough retirements that it'll all even out.
12-15-2013 | 07:38 PM
#343
Don't say Guppy
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,926
Likes: 0
From: Guppy driver
PV;
I couldn't disagree more. There is no way the company is going to sit on 700-1000 767 pilots that aren't flying, but getting paid. If you live in base, there is no reason to bid out to commute to another base.
There will be some 76 CAPT retirements, and more than a few that bid to wide body, but the vast majority of 76 FO's cannot hold wide body capt, so where are they going to bump to?
I would guess there will be a bloodbath, unless UCH decides to sit on too many 73 Capt. They rarely do this for any length of time.
I couldn't disagree more. There is no way the company is going to sit on 700-1000 767 pilots that aren't flying, but getting paid. If you live in base, there is no reason to bid out to commute to another base.
There will be some 76 CAPT retirements, and more than a few that bid to wide body, but the vast majority of 76 FO's cannot hold wide body capt, so where are they going to bump to?
I would guess there will be a bloodbath, unless UCH decides to sit on too many 73 Capt. They rarely do this for any length of time.
12-15-2013 | 08:26 PM
#344
On Reserve
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 22
Likes: 0
PV;
I couldn't disagree more. There is no way the company is going to sit on 700-1000 767 pilots that aren't flying, but getting paid. If you live in base, there is no reason to bid out to commute to another base.
There will be some 76 CAPT retirements, and more than a few that bid to wide body, but the vast majority of 76 FO's cannot hold wide body capt, so where are they going to bump to?
I would guess there will be a bloodbath, unless UCH decides to sit on too many 73 Capt. They rarely do this for any length of time.
I couldn't disagree more. There is no way the company is going to sit on 700-1000 767 pilots that aren't flying, but getting paid. If you live in base, there is no reason to bid out to commute to another base.
There will be some 76 CAPT retirements, and more than a few that bid to wide body, but the vast majority of 76 FO's cannot hold wide body capt, so where are they going to bump to?
I would guess there will be a bloodbath, unless UCH decides to sit on too many 73 Capt. They rarely do this for any length of time.
12-15-2013 | 09:45 PM
#345
Don't say Guppy
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,926
Likes: 0
From: Guppy driver
PV;
No offense intended, but how long have you been at UAL? Why would you bid off a shrinking fleet, when you are getting paid to stay home and not fly? Answer is……..you wouldn't. You would wait until you get bumped. Getting bumped is a much better deal, with no freezes.
Why would UAL keep paying them to sit at home and not fly on a shrinking fleet? Answer is….they won't
I will look again but in 1404v I don't remember more than 1 (if any) DEN 76t FO bidding for something else.
They are all waiting………...
No offense intended, but how long have you been at UAL? Why would you bid off a shrinking fleet, when you are getting paid to stay home and not fly? Answer is……..you wouldn't. You would wait until you get bumped. Getting bumped is a much better deal, with no freezes.
Why would UAL keep paying them to sit at home and not fly on a shrinking fleet? Answer is….they won't
I will look again but in 1404v I don't remember more than 1 (if any) DEN 76t FO bidding for something else.
They are all waiting………...
12-15-2013 | 10:12 PM
#347
Don't say Guppy
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,926
Likes: 0
From: Guppy driver
Yes but only in NYC and IAH I believe. Has to be the same domicile. In the last couple, and next year or so, UAL will have parked over 80 757's. That is over 1000 pilots.
Only 2 Den Capt and FO's bid off in this last bid, and they were only to 747 slots. I believe there are a couple of hundred DEN 767 pilots, the vast majority of which live in base, and plan on staying that way. If there are more DEN 737 Capt BIDS they might bid it, but if not, they will wait to bump. In the end, unless UCH plans on flying PS 757's to Denver, I believe that the DEN 757 base will close, or at least be shrank massively, and it is not that big now.
If it were me, and I am getting paid to not fly, I would wait to bump, for as long as possible.
Only 2 Den Capt and FO's bid off in this last bid, and they were only to 747 slots. I believe there are a couple of hundred DEN 767 pilots, the vast majority of which live in base, and plan on staying that way. If there are more DEN 737 Capt BIDS they might bid it, but if not, they will wait to bump. In the end, unless UCH plans on flying PS 757's to Denver, I believe that the DEN 757 base will close, or at least be shrank massively, and it is not that big now.
If it were me, and I am getting paid to not fly, I would wait to bump, for as long as possible.
12-16-2013 | 12:38 AM
#348
On Reserve
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 22
Likes: 0
Yes but only in NYC and IAH I believe. Has to be the same domicile. In the last couple, and next year or so, UAL will have parked over 80 757's. That is over 1000 pilots.
Only 2 Den Capt and FO's bid off in this last bid, and they were only to 747 slots. I believe there are a couple of hundred DEN 767 pilots, the vast majority of which live in base, and plan on staying that way. If there are more DEN 737 Capt BIDS they might bid it, but if not, they will wait to bump. In the end, unless UCH plans on flying PS 757's to Denver, I believe that the DEN 757 base will close, or at least be shrank massively, and it is not that big now.
If it were me, and I am getting paid to not fly, I would wait to bump, for as long as possible.
Only 2 Den Capt and FO's bid off in this last bid, and they were only to 747 slots. I believe there are a couple of hundred DEN 767 pilots, the vast majority of which live in base, and plan on staying that way. If there are more DEN 737 Capt BIDS they might bid it, but if not, they will wait to bump. In the end, unless UCH plans on flying PS 757's to Denver, I believe that the DEN 757 base will close, or at least be shrank massively, and it is not that big now.
If it were me, and I am getting paid to not fly, I would wait to bump, for as long as possible.
Are you saying UAL is going to park 80 76T and displace 1000 pilots by next year? If so you're delusional, that's not going to happen. They'll be slow transitional vacancies with little to no bumps whatsoever. If you want to sit, go ahead, I'm sure other pilots will take those slots. Ual would rather build dh pairings to fly out of base trips then displace a thousand pilots. I bet the majority of 76 guys will bid out thru a vacancy whenever they can hold it with a small fraction of displacments, if any. Only the senior people are getting the ca vacancies anyway. Go ahead and sit in the right seat and wait for a bump, I think you'll be waiting for a while, let me know how that turns out.
12-16-2013 | 01:00 AM
#349
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,738
Likes: 5
From: Sleeping in the black swan’s nest.
P,
Are you saying UAL is going to park 80 76T and displace 1000 pilots by next year? If so you're delusional, that's not going to happen. They'll be slow transitional vacancies with little to no bumps whatsoever. If you want to sit, go ahead, I'm sure other pilots will take those slots. Ual would rather build dh pairings to fly out of base trips then displace a thousand pilots. I bet the majority of 76 guys will bid out thru a vacancy whenever they can hold it with a small fraction of displacments, if any. Only the senior people are getting the ca vacancies anyway. Go ahead and sit in the right seat and wait for a bump, I think you'll be waiting for a while, let me know how that turns out.
Are you saying UAL is going to park 80 76T and displace 1000 pilots by next year? If so you're delusional, that's not going to happen. They'll be slow transitional vacancies with little to no bumps whatsoever. If you want to sit, go ahead, I'm sure other pilots will take those slots. Ual would rather build dh pairings to fly out of base trips then displace a thousand pilots. I bet the majority of 76 guys will bid out thru a vacancy whenever they can hold it with a small fraction of displacments, if any. Only the senior people are getting the ca vacancies anyway. Go ahead and sit in the right seat and wait for a bump, I think you'll be waiting for a while, let me know how that turns out.
Obviously if some one can bid and hold a vacancy capt bid they'll take it. Nobody will wait to get bumped if they can bid and get what they want. But if you think I am going to take a 737 F/O bid to get out of the right seat of the 76T when there are 737 captain jr to me in BES you sir are the delusional one.
If Jeffy wants to pay me 73 hours a month to not fly that's his business. But I am NOT Taking a narrow body F/O bid or bidding out of DEN simply because the company has some fantasy that we will solve their severe need to surplus through normal attrition. Not going to happen my friend.
12-16-2013 | 05:10 AM
#350
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 3,071
Likes: 0
sled/gofer,
I do agree that no young 05/06 hire Captains will ever get bumped ever. That we agree, even though some wish that would happen, but no worries it won't. I would also disagree that there is going to be a tsunami of displacements from the 76fo to 73ca. There might be some but I predict very little to none. With the slow replacement of 73 to 76 there has been easy movement into 73 vacancies by senior 76ca. One can only move into the fleet with vacancies and there's plenty of 76 guys in line to hold it. The 76 staffing is getting sucked down from the top, leaving no need to displace. Down the road there might even be lual 76ca vacancies. 76fo's will be waiting a long time before getting into a 73ca seat. By that time there'll be enough retirements that it'll all even out.
I do agree that no young 05/06 hire Captains will ever get bumped ever. That we agree, even though some wish that would happen, but no worries it won't. I would also disagree that there is going to be a tsunami of displacements from the 76fo to 73ca. There might be some but I predict very little to none. With the slow replacement of 73 to 76 there has been easy movement into 73 vacancies by senior 76ca. One can only move into the fleet with vacancies and there's plenty of 76 guys in line to hold it. The 76 staffing is getting sucked down from the top, leaving no need to displace. Down the road there might even be lual 76ca vacancies. 76fo's will be waiting a long time before getting into a 73ca seat. By that time there'll be enough retirements that it'll all even out.
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