In the matter of: UAL DRC vs CAL DRC
06-16-2014, 07:43 AM
#101
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: Gets weekends off
Posts: 1,168
Originally Posted by Gupboy
According to July staffing, the most junior LUAL EWR 737 CA is number 7954. Mixed right in with LCAL 05 hires. So that "long time" comment is subject to debate. Nearly half of LCAL 05 hires are merged with LUAL 97 hires, who are rightfully assuming CA bids. Most LCAL 05 hires that wanted a captain bid already have it. The others are 777/787 FO's or very senior in seat 737 FO's. Without knowing the companies staffing plans, it's pure speculation stating how long it will take for ANY bid.
06-16-2014, 08:31 AM
#102
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Position: 737 Cap
Posts: 451
Originally Posted by Dave Fitzgerald
Uh....yes they did. How about 2 or more years of Captains pay?? Can be significant. 
Scott
06-16-2014, 08:49 AM
#103
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Posts: 621
Originally Posted by Scott Stoops
It is actually much more significant than that in the senior bases as the junior Cal pilots holding the bids effectively act as blockers from new bids occurring. By Cal taking those bids when they did, they filled an entire seat/domicile way out of seniority. As an example, the junior 737 Cap in Denver is nearly 8500 on the list. The junior 320 Cap is about 5200. Over 3000 numbers difference. I am around 4900 and would love to be a Den Cap again (for the third time), but I doubt I'll hold it for several more years due to bids already being filled nearly 3000 numbers junior to where they will likely end up falling. The coming bump train will only exacerbate this. That said, it is what it is. The SLI is done, the disputes (short of the lawsuit) are done. Best we move on.
Scott
Scott
06-16-2014, 09:33 AM
#104
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: A Nobody
Posts: 1,559
CALFO
Sorry to bust your bubble on future bids but the Guppies are replacements for many other retiring airplanes.
Most of the upward movement is going to come because of retirements. Of course that also depends on the industry, Arab Airlines, the current Senate issues about foreign flying and more. Who knows UCH could move to just sell tickets and outsource everything in the future, just look at Quantas.
So my recommendation is as always, bid what a pilot is willing to fly and willing to live. Don't count on future changes!
Sorry to bust your bubble on future bids but the Guppies are replacements for many other retiring airplanes.
Most of the upward movement is going to come because of retirements. Of course that also depends on the industry, Arab Airlines, the current Senate issues about foreign flying and more. Who knows UCH could move to just sell tickets and outsource everything in the future, just look at Quantas.
So my recommendation is as always, bid what a pilot is willing to fly and willing to live. Don't count on future changes!
06-16-2014, 10:02 AM
#105
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Posts: 621
Originally Posted by Regularguy
CALFO
Sorry to bust your bubble on future bids but the Guppies are replacements for many other retiring airplanes.
Most of the upward movement is going to come because of retirements. Of course that also depends on the industry, Arab Airlines, the current Senate issues about foreign flying and more. Who knows UCH could move to just sell tickets and outsource everything in the future, just look at Quantas.
So my recommendation is as always, bid what a pilot is willing to fly and willing to live. Don't count on future changes!
Sorry to bust your bubble on future bids but the Guppies are replacements for many other retiring airplanes.
Most of the upward movement is going to come because of retirements. Of course that also depends on the industry, Arab Airlines, the current Senate issues about foreign flying and more. Who knows UCH could move to just sell tickets and outsource everything in the future, just look at Quantas.
So my recommendation is as always, bid what a pilot is willing to fly and willing to live. Don't count on future changes!
The "junior" captains will not block anything. The company has and will continue to train 737 capt's at max capacity.
06-16-2014, 11:28 AM
#106
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: A Nobody
Posts: 1,559
CALFO
I think you understand 737 bases are growing as others shrink. In the short term this does provide some opportunity. In the longer run the merged UAL will be smaller than the two were separate.
Also which airplanes will the 737 Capts bid to?
I think you understand 737 bases are growing as others shrink. In the short term this does provide some opportunity. In the longer run the merged UAL will be smaller than the two were separate.
Also which airplanes will the 737 Capts bid to?
06-16-2014, 01:28 PM
#107
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Posts: 621
Originally Posted by Regularguy
CALFO
I think you understand 737 bases are growing as others shrink. In the short term this does provide some opportunity. In the longer run the merged UAL will be smaller than the two were separate.
Also which airplanes will the 737 Capts bid to?
I think you understand 737 bases are growing as others shrink. In the short term this does provide some opportunity. In the longer run the merged UAL will be smaller than the two were separate.
Also which airplanes will the 737 Capts bid to?
06-16-2014, 01:35 PM
#108
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2006
Posts: 621
Originally Posted by Gupboy
Since ISL there have been relatively few CA bids, so naturally they will be taken by LUAL pilots who can hold them and WANT them.
According to July staffing, the most junior LUAL EWR 737 CA is number 7954. Mixed right in with LCAL 05 hires. Obviously some very senior LUAL pilots did not bid those seats. So that "long time" comment is subject to debate. Nearly half of LCAL 05 hires are merged with LUAL 97 hires, who are rightfully assuming CA bids. Most LCAL 05 hires that wanted a captain bid already have it. Most others are 777/787 FO's or very senior in seat 737 FO's. Without knowing the companies staffing plans, it's pure speculation stating how long it will take for a seniority block to hold a seat.
According to July staffing, the most junior LUAL EWR 737 CA is number 7954. Mixed right in with LCAL 05 hires. Obviously some very senior LUAL pilots did not bid those seats. So that "long time" comment is subject to debate. Nearly half of LCAL 05 hires are merged with LUAL 97 hires, who are rightfully assuming CA bids. Most LCAL 05 hires that wanted a captain bid already have it. Most others are 777/787 FO's or very senior in seat 737 FO's. Without knowing the companies staffing plans, it's pure speculation stating how long it will take for a seniority block to hold a seat.
I think this analysis may be flawed. Was the 7954 pilot awarded the position in a vacancy bid or via a displacement? My guess is that it's a displacement. I think the real seniority number of pilots bidding in is at about 7000. I expect it will get closer to 8000 within a year, but right now that's what you need in order to be awarded captain on the 737.
06-16-2014, 02:20 PM
#109
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: Gets weekends off
Posts: 1,168
Originally Posted by CALFO
I think this analysis may be flawed. Was the 7954 pilot awarded the position in a vacancy bid or via a displacement? My guess is that it's a displacement. I think the real seniority number of pilots bidding in is at about 7000. I expect it will get closer to 8000 within a year, but right now that's what you need in order to be awarded captain on the 737.
I think these displacements are going to keep the open vacancy bids down slightly for guppy Captain, making it artificially more senior on vacancy bids. That's what's happening already, and its going to increase.
I'd be surprised in a year from now if 8,000 isn't about what it takes to hold a left seat somewhere.
The combined airline now has about 5,000 Captain positions and 7,000 FO positions (obviously because of widebody airplanes). Obviously, if everyone bid as high as they could, no one below 5,000 would be a Captain.
Good analysis CALFO. I agree.
06-16-2014, 02:30 PM
#110
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: Gets weekends off
Posts: 1,168
Originally Posted by CALFO
787 and 777. As pilots retire off of those planes, someone has to take their place. The 787 will increase its captain staffing by at least 100 in the next two years while at the same time having retirements. Lots of 777 captain retirement, which will be filled with both ual and cal pilots.
I think the 787 is going to be the big growth fleet, since we have 65 total orders and only about 16 on the property now.
If we don't park any widebodies early, the entire 747, 777, 787, A-350 fleet will be about 200 airplanes by 2020. I'm sure some older 777s will get parked though.
Anything can happen.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
