I'm thinking there's a very high likelihood that we have crossed paths.

 

Ah, I do believe you are correct. Forgot that detail. However, the stronger dollar does give us some wiggle room to ask for a discount. Kind of like going into a car negotiation knowing the dealer's invoice price.

Another fill in to that last post of mine wondering about 777-300 intake and assumption of 747 flying. I didn't consider the conversion of older 777s to domestic configurations. Thus, there are going to have to be at least some additional WBs acquired after the 14 -300s, be they more -300s or A350s.

 

According to the website below:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...19&output=html

We are receiving 5 787's in 2017 (Jan, Feb, Aug, Dec and Dec)

Now I know those can't hope to replace a whale in any world but the one that UA apparently thinks we live in, so don't shoot the messenger. At least that is 5 more airframes in the top Salary bucket.

P.S. Don't worry a thing about all those Norwegian Air International 787s you see on that list, it is a perfectly legitimate organization and is completely in line with the open skies agreement , just ask the DOT!

 

They moved up the delivery date on the two that are now going to arrive in December of next year it appears, from your chart.

Unfortunately these five 787s completes our firm orders for 788s and 789s.

 

Well, I didn't boldly predict the retirement of the -400 fleet after this summer but apparently I was on the scent of something. Lots of folks have talked about getting additional 300ERs, and I feel pretty comfortable boldly predicting there are going to be several more coming starting next spring in time for the summer '18 high season. They could be used airframes I suppose, but the most likely sources would be ME carriers (who are parking jets now) needing extensive refurbishment and I see no good reason to put money in their pockets when we can have new airframes for not that much more. Additional 300ERs would also allow us to start retiring our oldest A models in a few years while reconfiguring slightly newer -200ERs for domestic/Hawaii ops. 777-8/9s are definitely a possibility down the road.

Airbus has got to be sweating our 350 order after AA deferred theirs. We may yet get ours, but I expect a deferral at least as the 300ERs will take care of all our needs the next few years. That said, I think a swap of 350s for 321LRs is more likely, to replace our oldest 757s.

I'll bet we are going to buy the C-Series in modest numbers to unlock scope and replace some of our oldest 319s/700s. I also think we'll eventually swap some of our deferred -700s for additional 787s as some of our oldest 767s age out. I pray we don't announce an order for Max -10s this week or ever.

Earnings call this week gentlemen, place your bets!

 

I bet none of this happens.

Putting 772's on domestic routes is a waste of capability.
The 350 problem is FAR117 Crew rest compliance. You'd think that's an easy fix, apparently not.
319/700's are soldiering on, why get rid of them?
737 swaps don't equate to 787's... Boeings order book is full up on that side.
I hope you're right on 321's. That and 330's would make for good 756 fleet replacement. Especially 330neos.

 

My bet?
No new orders on the conference call. The 777s and 787s coming this year, can, and will, replace the current 747 flying.

 

I understand what you are saying. However, WBs on select domestic routes allows us to increase seat availability at peak demand hours. Especially into slot constrained airports. Older WBs may not be as fuel efficient as newer ones, but if they fly shorter routes the higher fuel burn is less of a factor. A few years ago, I wouldn't have guessed we'd be flying many domestic legs on 777s, but here we are.

True, but our oldest 320s are 23 years old, oldest 319s/700s are 19/17 years old respectively. They are going to need something to start showing on property in a few years to start replacing that lift. Plus we have lots of aircraft on lease now that we could return, especially since interest rates favor buying right now. That is why we announced in Nov that we were buying 175s for RJET instead of leasing them, saving $100m.

Not equal for sure, I didn't mean a one for one swap of airframes. I do think there will be opportunities to pick up 787s or whatever quickly as other carriers run into problems and try to defer orders (Turkish Airlines for example). Sixty deferred -700s could equal maybe a dozen 787s (I'm not gonna look up exact values, but I'm sure you get what I'm saying).

 

I believe they will announce CS100/300 orders that we take from Republic (they have 40 with 40 options). Consider we just purchased the 175s for republic, they probably owe us money as well as Bombardier, this could be a good way to get a SNB on property. Kirby likes RJs from what I've heard, and this opens up the option for more of them within the UPA.

I'm really hopeful we see NB Airbus orders as well.

 

This.
New jets? Where would we park them? Gates are always full. Who would fly them? Pilot hiring has been slowing. Who is gonna maintain them? Im always hearing about how understaffed mx is. (well I usually just hear that in SFO). 6 hours to replace a fire bottle is unreal.


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