CactusCrew

Possibly Yes, or not.

But one thing is certain, line pilots will be the last to know.

Busflyer

I think the training for this bid is supposed to be completed by January. I’d guess another bid comes out Novemberish for early next year classes.

whalesurfer

Jimmy, congrats on the pool letter! Hope to see you on the property soon.

We don’t really have any answers to your questions because most of us here are regular line pilots. We typically learn about the latest and greatest from USAtoday or other news outlets.

The hiring pool is an enigma to most of us. How many people are in it is somewhat irrelevant because everything is based on one’s total score (interview, experience, sim, recommendations, etc), not when he or she ended up in the pool. We don’t know how they score applicants. It has never been explained to us.

To give you an idea, if there’s only one person in the pool and someone else interviews a day later and gets a higher score, that person will be called first. There was a poolie in my class (more than a decade ago) who ended up swimming for 3 years and had to re-interview at one point!
I am not trying to sound negative, just giving you the facts. You probably will get a call soon. Most people do. ..but maybe it’ll take a while.
Six months from now, if you’re still in the pool I’d go to a job fair to ask them in person. Hopefully you won’t have to.

Class sizes can be anywhere from 1 (yes, it has happened) to 30 or more.. Recently they have been in the 10-20 range. Sometimes we have a class every two months and sometimes several classes in one month.
As you can tell, there is no rhyme or reason to what we, the line slugs see out there. There’s probably a plan but they sure like to keep it to themselves.
Wish you the very best but in the meantime keep pursuing other airlines. You just never know.
Good luck.

whalesurfer

Possible but doubtful. Training departments on all fleets will be busy as is. The effective date for the latest awards is the end of January 2019! Used to be ~3 months. Now they gave themselves 7 months.. ..but many still won’t be trained by then.
Why? Well, we’ve seen it before. We have pilots from the previous system’s bid who haven’t been trained yet.

FTv3

To be fair, some of those 2 year upgrades at FedEx suffer the same fate - training occurring months to a year after the award date.

Delta’s same thing and they have hired so many young guys and gals (in their 20’s) over the past few years that anyone older joining the list now or in the short future probably won’t see widebody captain in their careers and if they do they will be at the bottom of the list. Delta isn’t necessarily a good choice for folks 40+...

BoilerUP

Public math with assumptions follow:

Based on ST's seniority list from earlier this month...there are 2780 pilots on property, the average First Officer age is 48, and the average age of 2014-2018 hires is 43.

With junior CA normally around 65%, that would mean a pilot would need to be roughly 1807 based on today's pilot group size in order to hold bottom person in the left seat system-wide.

Through year end 2028, there are 1086 mandatory Age 65 retirements. Assuming a static pilot group, historical junior CA percentage and based on mandatory retirements alone, today's plug should have no trouble holding junior CA position by the end of 2028.

Between now and year end 2022, we will take delivery of 32 more airframes, all of which have been slated for growth. Based on historical staffing, those 32 growth airframes should generate approx. 600 additional pilot positions, roughly half of which will be new Captain positions.

Additional CA positions will of course serve to reduce upgrade time even further.

Past results not indicative of future performance, nor are projections guaranteed, etc etc etc.

PastV1by10

Why do people try and justify their own choices by making others jobs look bad? If your over 40 and you choose UPS over others like Delta and FedEx, you need to have your head examined.

FTv3

As far as the doom and gloom for UPS goes, a little research paints a different story: net incom, net profits, revenue, stock price etc, all continue their longstanding upward trend. As Boiler pointed out, net aircraft are increasing, our seniority list is growing and even the sourest amongst us can see the increased volume despite the company’s handling of it. Sideshow’s grand theory of the company holding out on expansion in prediction of a recession in the near future isn’t exactly rocket science, many indicators and economists opinions to support this theory. If his theory comes to fruition, UPS will be sitting in a rather good position and it might even prevent possible furloughs if the recession is deep enough. Of course that assuming a lot on the company’s part - it still feels like UPS’s ego is getting in the way of doing smart business.

As far as avoiding UPS as a career choice, until real evidence of this company’s demise starts to materialize I wouldn’t worry about this being a sinking ship. But keep your eyes wide open because she has some leaks and realize this isn’t the place to come for fast movement. If we do go into a recession and the pax guys start losing their profit sharing $$, you’ll see a huge difference in pay between UPS/FX and pax airlines. As I’ve always said, UPS wouldn’t be my first choice nor my last choice.

FTv3

Hey, I’m asking you nicely here if you could please be a mature, respectful, professional individual and please leave this thread?

PastV1by10

No, *** not as long as you brown cool aid drinkers are making this place the end all and be all of the aviation world.