Search
Notices

Alaska or Jetblue?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 08-30-2019, 04:04 PM
  #91  
Line Holder
 
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Posts: 80
Default

Originally Posted by Rabid Seagull View Post
Where are you getting your info? I think it's still above 12 years.
Somebody posted an excel sheet on the potato farm, showed 8 years and one month for LGB CA.
Dashbro is offline  
Old 08-30-2019, 06:22 PM
  #92  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Posts: 503
Default

Originally Posted by Dashbro View Post
Somebody posted an excel sheet on the potato farm, showed 8 years and one month for LGB CA.
Hmmmm, maybe you have/ they have friends in high places and you have advanced knowledge of the yearly system bid that won't be out for another week or there's a 8 yr CA that's doing a temporary base trade with someone in LGB? But as of the last quarterly system bid ( move date of DEC) the last CA to get into LGB is a MAR/APR ' 07 hire.

Or I need to check my emails
Rabid Seagull is offline  
Old 08-30-2019, 06:44 PM
  #93  
Line holder
 
symbian simian's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,228
Default

Doesn't really matter for the people trying to decide between JB and AL now really, does it?
symbian simian is offline  
Old 08-30-2019, 07:43 PM
  #94  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: May 2019
Position: 757/767 CA
Posts: 253
Default

Originally Posted by symbian simian View Post
Doesn't really matter for the people trying to decide between JB and AL now really, does it?
It most definitely does... For a west coast person, upgrade time plays a massive role in the decision process. If I had job offers from both and wanted to remain west of the Mississippi, I’d weigh upgrade time up there with most other metrics. Money in the bank, dude!

And... LGB upgrade is definitely NOT 8 years. 12 for the lowball reserve plug. The seagull is wise.
HostileCombover is offline  
Old 08-31-2019, 07:52 AM
  #95  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 692
Default

Originally Posted by HostileCombover View Post
It most definitely does... For a west coast person, upgrade time plays a massive role in the decision process. If I had job offers from both and wanted to remain west of the Mississippi, I’d weigh upgrade time up there with most other metrics. Money in the bank, dude!

And... LGB upgrade is definitely NOT 8 years. 12 for the lowball reserve plug. The seagull is wise.
4 yr upgrade for SFO Airbus at AS right now. Maybe another bid in Spring. Hired/hiring 300 this year and next.
KnockKnock is offline  
Old 08-31-2019, 08:39 AM
  #96  
Line holder
 
symbian simian's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: On the bus,seat 0A
Posts: 3,228
Default

Originally Posted by HostileCombover View Post
It most definitely does... For a west coast person, upgrade time plays a massive role in the decision process. If I had job offers from both and wanted to remain west of the Mississippi, I’d weigh upgrade time up there with most other metrics. Money in the bank, dude!

And... LGB upgrade is definitely NOT 8 years. 12 for the lowball reserve plug. The seagull is wise.
Off course upgrade time matters, but the people upgrading now were hired over a decade ago. Using that number to make a prognosis about upgrade time for future hires is not an exact science. Our upgrade in DTW went from 10 to 2 years in one class because of no hiring for 4 years and all DTW FOs were where they wanted to be. If you want to make a (more?) educated guess you need to look at standing bids, forecast retirements and forecast growth (and hope and pray nothing else changes in the next decade). Conservative option: pick a company (and hope it picks you back) where you want to work, unless the upgrade is below 3 years, results from the past don't matter.
symbian simian is offline  
Old 08-31-2019, 09:07 AM
  #97  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 144
Default

Originally Posted by KnockKnock View Post
4 yr upgrade for SFO Airbus at AS right now. Maybe another bid in Spring. Hired/hiring 300 this year and next.
That upgrade was 2000 of 3000 pilots. I think the results point more to luck, the desirability of SFO, and reserve QOL than anything else.

Since Alaska doesn't allow us to see standing bid preferences, we'll know if it was an anomaly or an actual trend when the next bid comes out.
Back2future is offline  
Old 08-31-2019, 09:39 AM
  #98  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 692
Default

Originally Posted by Back2future View Post
That upgrade was 2000 of 3000 pilots. I think the results point more to luck, the desirability of SFO, and reserve QOL than anything else.

Since Alaska doesn't allow us to see standing bid preferences, we'll know if it was an anomaly or an actual trend when the next bid comes out.
How do you define a trend? In the 4+ years I’ve been here it’s “trended” down from 12 to 4 years. In the last 2 years, it’s gone from 5 to 4 years. All things being equal, the same percentage of those who bypass will continue to bypass. If the upgrade is hovering around 4 years during a period of .02% growth, I would think that trend would continue in the upcoming .04% growth year/s.
KnockKnock is offline  
Old 08-31-2019, 10:58 AM
  #99  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 144
Default

Originally Posted by KnockKnock View Post
How do you define a trend? In the 4+ years I’ve been here it’s “trended” down from 12 to 4 years. In the last 2 years, it’s gone from 5 to 4 years. All things being equal, the same percentage of those who bypass will continue to bypass. If the upgrade is hovering around 4 years during a period of .02% growth, I would think that trend would continue in the upcoming .04% growth year/s.

In the 4+ years you have been here age 65 got into full swing and Alaska has had unprecedented growth because of their reaction to Delta's growth in Seattle. We've also merged with another airline which has bases that most of the ANC and SEA pilots would compare to Mogadishu.

Now that we've settled into the usual 3% growth per year that AAG feels comfortable with, I'd say that its a trend if the upgrade stays at 4 years for longer than 1 year.
Back2future is offline  
Old 08-31-2019, 11:34 AM
  #100  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 692
Default

Originally Posted by Back2future View Post
In the 4+ years you have been here age 65 got into full swing and Alaska has had unprecedented growth because of their reaction to Delta's growth in Seattle. We've also merged with another airline which has bases that most of the ANC and SEA pilots would compare to Mogadishu.

Now that we've settled into the usual 3% growth per year that AAG feels comfortable with, I'd say that its a trend if the upgrade stays at 4 years for longer than 1 year.
I think we're saying the same thing. It has stayed sub 5 for the last yr and has been inching closer to 4 for a while. Even before integration. We've hired more this year, (and are told we're hiring the same next year), than we've ever hired before. We just had the largest upgrade bid in our history. Prior to that, the previous 4 years saw unprecedented hiring with 200-250 a yr. (Minus 1 yr of only 150ish). So we're "trending" towards shorter upgrade times and more hiring. This is not purely based on the minimal attrition we've had. If the same factors are in play for the foreseeable future. I can't see the percentage of bypasses changing keeping upgrades around 4, maybe sub 4 yrs.
KnockKnock is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Flyin1500
Alaska
64
10-23-2023 06:14 PM
Splanky
Regional
47
01-28-2011 07:59 AM
Lone Palm
Regional
5
01-25-2011 09:48 AM
fireman0174
JetBlue
6
08-24-2006 05:06 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices