We just let the last class in March continue rather than letting them go, certainly aren’t hiring.

"AA is not bringing back pilots for training this summer. There was an error in yesterday's email."

You’re not debunking anything
 

And please don’t insult everyone here by saying you “spend seconds” on this site. I think you spend more time here than you spend flying. Are you even a line pilot for Alaska? Someone said you were removed from a union position. Seems likely to me. You claim that you’re trying to help our pilot group. How is what you’re posting here helping?

This is the exact reason the union should have said something.... You have 400 people on a manic ride. One minute they are low realizing the unthinkable is about to happen, the next sky high because AAL is running new hire classes, and back straight down when they realize it wasn’t true.

Right now AS is running about 24% of its 2020 planned schedule at 40% load factor, at 65% of last year ticket pricing. Right now fall looks about a 40-50% load on a significantly reduced schedule. We are forecasting 817 bid blocks August ‘21. Everyone is smarter then this but I get it, I have lost a loved one, everyday I woke up I was happy, then I remembered. No matter where you are on the seniority list you want to believe the impossible, I get it.

Well I do agree with you on something. It is a manic ride...


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I'm not doubting you. I'm just wondering about the outside firm AS has hired to look at demand outlook for Summer 2021. AS isn't the only one, pretty much every major airline has done the same. My only question is since this is absolutely unprecedented in modern history, how exactly can they predict anything for next summer? It would have to make large assumptions about a lot of factors (second wave, third wave, vaccine, treatments, etc).

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thepoin...-schedule/amp/

I guess Southwest uses different consultants!

Southwest raised a ton of liquidity, they are ready, my guess is they may be going for the jugular with AAL. If all that capacity keeps AAL at or near current burn rates, they would likely have to file around the first of the year. Essentially, modeling says 50,70,90% return by next summer, most airlines are planning the middle.

I think it’s important to note: those are domestic travel returns only.

Alaska has access to the same liquidity as Southwest. The only difference is Southwest is always on offense and Alaska has never picked a fight it couldn’t run away from. Alaska and Southwest are the two healthiest airlines in the US, but only one is going to come out the other side stronger & bigger.

I will make this really simple:

Alaska made 8,781,000,000 in 2019

If revenue returns at 70%, that means AS has a 6,147,000,000 dollar pile of money for 2021.

The costs to run our full operation are about 7,718,000,000, that means we would be short or lose (1,571,000,000) for the year. That would not work.

If we reduce our operating costs by 20%, our expenses will be roughly, 6,174,000,000


70 % 2919 revenue 6,147,000,000

Minus 80% 2019 costs -6,174,000,000

Equals a survivable negative number (27,000,000)

We are not Southwest, we do not have Southwest cost structure. We are determined to survive this and take advantage on the backside. We are not looking to become one of the big 4, we are about responsibly growing our brand.