What the company needs
3080 -20% = 616

mitigation will bring the number too
385

For those of you affected, I am really sorry, I only tried to help, there was no hidden agenda, just transparency. I try to do that and all I get is blown up with nonsense and hate.... It is honestly embarrassing how you all treat Mea and me for what? What other airline got this kind of heads up, this kind of accuracy? I am going to start my own podcast but I am going to be upfront and honest!

250-300 is my guess. I don't have the insider info like OTZ. No premium during furlough is going to hurt the company if we aren't properly staffed that runs as lean as ALK does in the summer.

That would be on the low side. At 12 pilots per aircraft (again my apologies for the wrong number last time) that puts us between 360 and 480 overstaffed. I haven't been here long but AS doesn't strike me as a place where they will keep people sitting around on the payroll for no reason.

I agree they won’t keep one more person than necessary, with only 200 planes that’s 2400 pilots at 12 per plane. If they offer any early out at all it’s going to be a joke I’m sure. I think even OTZ furlough numbers are on the low side

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
2385 needed for Q3 2021
That is a zero adjusted number
The number should increase significantly with scheduling changes and mitigation
385 looks only more like the number now, 195 downgrades
May 29th drop, was told something was passed to the union Friday.
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Really your calling me out but using my numbers. I posted that those numbers first of May.... I posted the same numbers in early April... I think the union can save some numbers. We have guys retiring, we have medicals, mil leave, maybe a few LOA’s.... 385 when adjusted for all that. Early out program would help... I don’t think that will happen though.

~37 planes is 444 pilots assuming the remaining planes fly a full schedule

50-100 Retirement (I'd guess a spike in guys taking the lump sum and leaving)
50 voluntary leave
​​​​​​100 extra needed with no premium (total WAG might be more)
??? mitigation through reduced block

I don't think it's going to be as bad as some are thinking. Certainly not 20%.

​​​​​​
Optomistic it's not over 300 furloughed.,

New contract by next summer.... It will include premium, 85hr block, single fleet, PBS, and a raise to make sure the 3 year deal passes...
That is my guess. I know, everyone laugh, laugh hard, I have been drinking again.

It will be 400 +- 50.... That came from M- and I would still bet that is the smartest guy at Alaska... I still think 385!

What's to stop the company offering straight rate open time and what prevents a pilot picking up at straight time?

Nothing.


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I'm not sure I understand your question. The company is required to leave open time available for pickup per the contract? Premium pay encourages pilots to work extra and is added as convertible credit allowing you to go above the max window+5 hrs.