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Old 05-16-2020 | 03:40 PM
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No, they are furloughing based on summer 2021 numbers, like everyone else. This isn’t hard. But yes this fall looks terrible but way better then right now.
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Old 05-16-2020 | 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
No, they are furloughing based on summer 2021 numbers, like everyone else. This isn’t hard. But yes this fall looks terrible but way better then right now.
The way this reads below implies that 1500-1600 pilots total will be needed this fall. If your other numbers are good, then that's better than I personally expected.

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
I heard 1500-1600 for this fall 😱
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Old 05-16-2020 | 03:50 PM
  #73  
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Originally Posted by ASpilot0936
The way this reads below implies that 1500-1600 pilots total will be needed this fall. If your other numbers are good, then that's better than I personally expected.
Yes that’s all that’s needed, but you can’t go from 3100 to 1500 to 2700 or whatever it is in a 12 month timeframe due to training time. Same reason delta has 7,000 more pilots than they need this fall. They won’t furlough near that many because they can’t. Ramp down and ramp up to that degree is impossible. If training for a new seat/requal was 1 week long for everyone, then yeah you’d prob see 50% of the lists furloughed until demand comes back. But training requirements prevent that.
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Old 05-16-2020 | 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
I think when the final furlough Numbers come out, you will finally realize how good that 385 number I gave you was. I know your kind though, you won’t even believe it then.

I’m doing everything possible financially to prepare for being unemployed for a long time.

Except getting a monkey to throw darts at a furlough numbers board.

I have you for that.


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Old 05-17-2020 | 10:20 AM
  #75  
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So, IF we need to furlough, what happened last time? What did the company/union estimate...and what was the actual number? Did they under promise (a lot of furloughs) and over deliver (not a lot)? What % of the pilot group got letters (given it was like what 100 guys and gals last time?). Obviously this is kind of different animal given that this is fear AND money based...vice just money.
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Old 05-17-2020 | 10:38 AM
  #76  
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Originally Posted by MiLtoMajor123
So, IF we need to furlough, what happened last time? What did the company/union estimate...and what was the actual number? Did they under promise (a lot of furloughs) and over deliver (not a lot)? What % of the pilot group got letters (given it was like what 100 guys and gals last time?). Obviously this is kind of different animal given that this is fear AND money based...vice just money.
Quick estimate: Union will say nothing, just regretfully the company is choosing to furlough. They will beat a drum about how hard they tried to persuade the company otherwise.

Company will send out 600 letters. They will reduce the number of actual furloughs to 400 just prior to the furlough. After a month or two they will call back 30 pilots because they furloughed too many.

This is very different, changes daily, company could cancel the whole thing days before, if things change drastically. Don’t put too much stock in that but it really could happen.

I think that is a pretty good ratio when comparing the last furlough numbers and scale to the new numbers and scale.
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Old 05-17-2020 | 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
Quick estimate: Union will say nothing, just regretfully the company is choosing to furlough. They will beat a drum about how hard they tried to persuade the company otherwise.

Company will send out 600 letters. They will reduce the number of actual furloughs to 400 just prior to the furlough. After a month or two they will call back 30 pilots because they furloughed too many.

This is very different, changes daily, company could cancel the whole thing days before, if things change drastically. Don’t put too much stock in that but it really could happen.

I think that is a pretty good ratio when comparing the last furlough numbers and scale to the new numbers and scale.
As the MEC Chairman tonight OTZ, armed with the info you now have, what would you say tomorrow at 8am to your pilot group. How would you explain your efforts to dissuade Brad Tilden from furloughing your pilots. What tools would you have given Brad to build a bridge around using furloughs. If you are going to play this game then slow down and explain yourself...Dont rush. You may be tapped into a data stream or you may not but put your thoughts together slowly and logically....Thats all
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Old 05-17-2020 | 05:48 PM
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Originally Posted by 9mikemike
As the MEC Chairman tonight OTZ, armed with the info you now have, what would you say tomorrow at 8am to your pilot group. How would you explain your efforts to dissuade Brad Tilden from furloughing your pilots. What tools would you have given Brad to build a bridge around using furloughs. If you are going to play this game then slow down and explain yourself...Dont rush. You may be tapped into a data stream or you may not but put your thoughts together slowly and logically....Thats all
BT will do what is in the best interest of shareholders, period.

This is not the unions fault, the union can not stop it, they have no real control or say. I would argue they should have been more transparent but that is my opinion.

My Dad used to say “life isn’t fair”. This is life, sometimes life isn’t fair. I hope for better days, but I feel very good about arming my friends with the truth.


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Old 05-18-2020 | 05:55 AM
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Have to agree on the” Life is not Fair”....The very essence of life is that it cannot be “Fair”.....Fortunately we have the option of being “Fair” with each other....Have to agree that good information, properly presented and factual is good for everyone. On a good day this airline job is sketchy and on the bad days it is a twisted cruel joke...Many of us, likely you and I included, know this and approach it that way....Many more may not and information can be fearful and scary...They too need our consideration
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Old 05-18-2020 | 09:15 AM
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So somewhere between 800 or 600 or 340 or zero pilots will get furloughed.

OK.

Armed with the truth? You’ve got to be kidding me!

OTZ/MEA is making my dart throwing monkey look good.


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