Outsider here. How many pilots are on your list? Thanks

 

3100 plus or minus

 

We have no way to see a current list. It comes out twice a year and is not accurate then. However, with chinaflu slamming on the brakes it is between 3000-3100. That would be total. Active pilots is usually 150-200 less...

 

3087... lost about 23 to resignations and retirements early spring to early summer. That should have us at about 3064 right now. Last I heard we had 94 non flyers (management, medical, military, LOA) that number does change each bid usually.

 

Next question is are the bid results going to be released early?

 

Yes, I think they will. I think late Thursday if everyone plays nice.

 

Even though we still have a long road ahead towards October, watching the so called “experts” (and everybody else for that matter), trying to predict the outcome of our current situation, it’s like watching the weather channel’s spaghetti model predictions during a hurricane. Things have been changing by the minute and I hope the articles below and the latest trend on travel are signs of better things to come. In the mean time don’t lower your guard, continue to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Stay strong and stay healthy!

https://apple.news/AqXZgFAwYSkexgi7n9r9jyw

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/coro...ng-demand.html

 

Although I appreciate any good news, this is horse S. When compared to Alaska’s and the industries modeling, we are only consistently missing markers to this point, trending bellow those low expectations. In my mind it’s the same as putting out a pod cast saying, “company only sees this as short term” and “there has been no mention of furloughs”, when every union leader has been briefed by both their and company experts, that this industry will be 20-25% smaller in 2021, when compared to 2019. Do you really think WB would have sold his entire stake at or near the bottom if this was going to recover quickly? You don’t think with him owning 10% of the entire industry, he wouldn’t have had some industry experts, like really goods ones, pouring over the numbers. You don’t think Boeing, Airbus, DAL, SWA, UAL CEO’s would have said 3-5 years if it were not the expected outcome? Pilots are not children, they can handle the truth, whether we want it to be true or not. The recent green shoots in our industry represent the possibility of solvency, not the possibility that we and others don’t shrink significantly.

 

I don't see how we can be back to 70% back by next summer. This was not an economic or financial crisis, this was a medical crisis. It requires a medical solution to fix. There's only two ways out of this, either we get an effective vaccine or herd immunity. A possible third way might be this just goes away on its own like some of the less-serious viruses in the past. Despite the name operation warp speed most experts agree it will be at least 12-18 months to a vaccine. Even assuming best case scenario and by next May a vaccine comes, it will still take a long time to get 330 mil people vaccinated.



China is about to put 100 million on lockdown with a second wave of the virus. Being that we are about 4 months behind China, that would imply we should expect a second wave here around Fall in the 3rd quarter. Then what?

 

I love how the article says there's an uptick in demand, then points out levels are 92% of where they were before.