Trust me I know. This stuff changes by the day honestly. I think it will hold up and turn out pretty similar. 2027-2028 could bring as many as 48 additional aircraft, but that is some behind the scenes magic baked into this deal.
A321 should be gone late 2024... could last as long as late 2025

What happen to the B6 merger?

A normal person would be embarrassed to post that... Cheers and a Merry Christmas to you and yours. Please feel free to add any great insight you have in the coming new year!

Right now it looks like AAL will take our A321’s November of 2024... This transaction could stretch into 2026, all depending on the recovery. There are a few ways AAL can back out or we could back out is my understanding.

Likely in trade for additional west coast routes on our end of the bargain?

B6 M&A predictions?

Casual talks... two giant egos, each has its own vision, I would put it at 8 to 1 odds. I think a tornado blowing in from the south is at 3 to 1. I guess you have to ask yourself, can the puzzle palace walls withstand such a wind. I know they want too.

I know this may be a hard pill to swallow if you are a Airbus guy... The numbers are unbelievable though, this is huge shot of career security in the arm. We can complete with anyone on any field moving forward. The only likely losers are pilots that live in or near the Bay. That could change, doesn’t look good right now though.

So Alaska is planning to keep 10 A321’s? Why not get rid of them for 10 more MAX’s??

Maybe they have a niche subset of routes where the economics really smoke, enough to more-than-cover the fleet overhead?

Maybe they want to keep a foot in the bus door just to keep Boeing from getting complacent?

Maybe just keep their future options open?

I'd guess some of all of the above.

If you want to fantasize, maybe airbus has a widebody they like and most of the buses have very common training.

They are gone, they want them all gone. The leases on the 321 are high, they are just simply cheaper to fly right now, then the significant cost to return. Over the next 24 months as the NB market thaws, they too will make their exit. They already have a AIP with AAL, but they will go at the first reasonable opportunity. Those planes have a lot of value, Alaska is cheap, they want a return on those jets.