E175 sfo
02-12-2021, 06:45 AM
#61
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 537
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
Ah, this is really embarrassing. So many smart people trying to re-invent the wheel 😂😂😂. Let’s make this really easy, there is a ZERO percent chance AS and QX merge, ZERO. There is a ZERO percent chance of QX getting 195s. We are getting MAX 7s, they will pay the same as a MAX 9s. All you chicken littles keep running around terrified, 747 to QX, 787 to QX... in five years you will have a new conspiracy I am sure. You can all sit around your campfires and tell ghost stories.
02-12-2021, 11:47 AM
#62
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,174
Originally Posted by copy
Good, sounds like you guys should be able to secure some solid scope language using minimal negotiating capital to codify it in black and white then if it’s that easy.
3 to 1, 76 seat max, will be in the next contract.
Saw some numbers this morning, this should display the power of single fleet. If we exercise every option, should have a seniority list of 3,250 in 2025. I believe those numbers had some section 25 synergies baked in also. Quick swag, that would have us probably hiring 60 fall of 2023, 150 or so in 2024, and probably 260 in 2025 and 200 in 2026. Pretty dark water we’re staring through, right now that’s best case scenario also. 3,360 in 2026 as it looks right now.
Last edited by OTZeagle1; 02-12-2021 at 12:26 PM.
02-12-2021, 12:39 PM
#64
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,174
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
3 to 1, 76 seat max, will be in the next contract.
Saw some numbers this morning, this should display the power of single fleet. If we exercise every option, should have a seniority list of 3,250 in 2025. I believe those numbers had some section 25 synergies baked in also. Quick swag, that would have us probably hiring 60 fall of 2023, 150 or so in 2024, and probably 260 in 2025 and 200 in 2026. Pretty dark water we’re staring through, right now that’s best case scenario also. 3,360 in 2026 as it looks right now.
Saw some numbers this morning, this should display the power of single fleet. If we exercise every option, should have a seniority list of 3,250 in 2025. I believe those numbers had some section 25 synergies baked in also. Quick swag, that would have us probably hiring 60 fall of 2023, 150 or so in 2024, and probably 260 in 2025 and 200 in 2026. Pretty dark water we’re staring through, right now that’s best case scenario also. 3,360 in 2026 as it looks right now.
02-12-2021, 01:24 PM
#66
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: Back of the Bus
Posts: 87
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
From your February 1st seniority number subtract 351 and that will give you a pretty good idea of your global seniority number end of 2026. Junior CA would be 8-9 range, most likely in that scenario.
02-12-2021, 02:43 PM
#67
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Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,174
AS expects to take every option, there is a little flexibility built in the order, approximately 24 mos... which would push us towards 2028 to 287 aircraft. Good news 2027, 2028, 2029 are large retirement years. If current trends are true, +-260 will go over those three years. So if the options slip 24 mo’s, hiring projections may not as much as one would expect normally. Planning for this summer has been problematic, so planing 6-8 years out of something like this is difficult at best. Just giving everyone an idea. Obviously, I hope it’s way off. All things considered though, I think it will be pretty accurate. Many have asked... I would expect about 90ish E175’s in Alaska colors 2026-2028 timeframe.
Last edited by OTZeagle1; 02-12-2021 at 03:02 PM.
02-12-2021, 07:54 PM
#69
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Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,898
While I am not doubting the airplane/fleet predictions, I am reminded how in 2015/2016 everyone was saying starting 2020 and onwards would be the biggest hiring spree known to pilotkind, massive retirements, growth, etc. Then of course Covid came and things went haywire. Who knows what will happen. It does seem that about every 10 yrs there is a “serious” event in the industry. I really hope that Covid is the event for the 2020 decade (as in 2022-2029 go smoothly).
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