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Old 07-06-2023, 11:54 AM
  #7511  
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For anyone looking to come to Alaska…. I’ll say it as others have repetitively: Whatever they tell you “the plan” is…. growth, pilots, planes, bases etc…. It is snapshot that can and probably will change within 30 secs if you knowing it. WE call that “unreliable” data. Management calls that being “nimble” or “flexible”. They LOVE it!! To them, it’s a feature, not a bug. Two types of airlines. Lions, and hyenas. Almost every other airline is a lion. They look for prey…. come up with a plan to hunt it down and kill it. Alaska, waits until prey either dies of natural causes or is killed, and then picks at the bones, …. Unless the apex airlines decide they want it back, and then we run as fast as we can back to SEA.

So, just know…. take literally every “plan” with 1/32 of a grain of salt.
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Old 07-06-2023, 08:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Carebear
Sounds like the company had hiring goals to fill classes with 600 but weren’t able to hire enough applicants. Also, do you guys count hiring a pilot the same as completion of training for them? If they hired 50 in July (7) and 50 in August (8) and 50 in September (9), is it even possible to hire more? No airline is able to hire the remaining 250 pilots needed and train them within the double digit numbered months (see: Oct/Nov/Dec dba 10/11/12) of the year, that’s for sure.
Every year I’ve worked here and we have been hiring the goal has never been met. The other years were during Covid so a couple years where they were not hiring. It’s pretty much tradition at this point.

There are plenty of applicants but not enough training bandwidth. In 2024 it might be possible to meet the 2023 year goals because the training department won’t be tied up with Airbus transitions.
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Old 07-06-2023, 09:23 PM
  #7513  
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That 600 plan was also made assuming the last A321 flight being Q1 2024. Aviation changes on the fly, and with the A321 retirements accelerated to Sept 30, 2023, along with getting the entire LAX based closed in 1 bid (unlike 3 for SFO), the training is gonna fairly full and busy the rest of the year. Of course we won’t be hiring 600. That plan was outdated with new changes mentioned.

And yes, finding pilot applicants are going to be an issue. That said, I know several pilots that either applied and never got an interview, or interviewed and weren’t hired.
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Old 07-07-2023, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by GoodJet
Every year I’ve worked here and we have been hiring the goal has never been met. The other years were during Covid so a couple years where they were not hiring. It’s pretty much tradition at this point.

There are plenty of applicants but not enough training bandwidth. In 2024 it might be possible to meet the 2023 year goals because the training department won’t be tied up with Airbus transitions.
So here’s the question. With the 600 number posted in here earlier this year, you figure for hiring goals you have about 12 pilots per airframe. If you accelerate the loss of 10 airplanes (120 pilots + about 70 for instructors, fleet captains, chief pilots) from next year to this year, doesn’t that number get absorbed into the hiring goals for the 737 fleet projection? If you announce 600 pilots needed for the 737s, and now you dump a full fleet of 321s, you now have an extra 190 pilots not needed for hiring, because they get absorbed into your 737 fleet.

Now, instead of needing to hire 600 pilots, you need 410. 200 already hired means you need to hire 210 more pilots, or 43 a month. Is that number not attainable?
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Old 07-07-2023, 10:09 AM
  #7515  
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Originally Posted by Carebear
So here’s the question. With the 600 number posted in here earlier this year, you figure for hiring goals you have about 12 pilots per airframe. If you accelerate the loss of 10 airplanes (120 pilots + about 70 for instructors, fleet captains, chief pilots) from next year to this year, doesn’t that number get absorbed into the hiring goals for the 737 fleet projection? If you announce 600 pilots needed for the 737s, and now you dump a full fleet of 321s, you now have an extra 190 pilots not needed for hiring, because they get absorbed into your 737 fleet.

Now, instead of needing to hire 600 pilots, you need 410. 200 already hired means you need to hire 210 more pilots, or 43 a month. Is that number not attainable?
They could hire that many per month, but maybe half that number will actually stay for any significant period of time.
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Old 07-07-2023, 09:11 PM
  #7516  
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Originally Posted by Carebear
So here’s the question. With the 600 number posted in here earlier this year, you figure for hiring goals you have about 12 pilots per airframe. If you accelerate the loss of 10 airplanes (120 pilots + about 70 for instructors, fleet captains, chief pilots) from next year to this year, doesn’t that number get absorbed into the hiring goals for the 737 fleet projection? If you announce 600 pilots needed for the 737s, and now you dump a full fleet of 321s, you now have an extra 190 pilots not needed for hiring, because they get absorbed into your 737 fleet.

Now, instead of needing to hire 600 pilots, you need 410. 200 already hired means you need to hire 210 more pilots, or 43 a month. Is that number not attainable?
Which is why I believe they changed the projection to around ~400 this year, and planning 600+ for next year. I’d have to go back and look when, but pretty sure the company did down the hiring from 600 to ~ 400 this year due to the Airbus drawdowns.
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Old 07-08-2023, 08:06 AM
  #7517  
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Originally Posted by Carebear
So here’s the question. With the 600 number posted in here earlier this year, you figure for hiring goals you have about 12 pilots per airframe. If you accelerate the loss of 10 airplanes (120 pilots + about 70 for instructors, fleet captains, chief pilots) from next year to this year, doesn’t that number get absorbed into the hiring goals for the 737 fleet projection? If you announce 600 pilots needed for the 737s, and now you dump a full fleet of 321s, you now have an extra 190 pilots not needed for hiring, because they get absorbed into your 737 fleet.

Now, instead of needing to hire 600 pilots, you need 410. 200 already hired means you need to hire 210 more pilots, or 43 a month. Is that number not attainable?
I don’t know I just work here. I do know it won’t be possible to hire 600. I also didn’t really believe it when the number was touted initially.

After seeing this happen for years I don’t believe any number….
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Old 07-08-2023, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by GoodJet
I don’t know I just work here. I do know it won’t be possible to hire 600. I also didn’t really believe it when the number was touted initially.

After seeing this happen for years I don’t believe any number….
There just aren’t enough pilots. The big 3 need about 20,000 pilots in the next 7 years. United and Delta are hiring 23-30 year olds left and right, all being thrown in the right seat of widebodies and any other airplane they want. The great pilot shortage we’ve been talking about for the past 15 years to arrive is finally in full force.

There’s a difference between “the company is lying about numbers” vs there just isn’t enough pilots to hire to support the fleet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see all airlines slow growth projections because of it. Over at United, if you get hired on as a 44 year old, you would retire at about number 7000 on the list. Crazy times.
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Old 07-08-2023, 12:06 PM
  #7519  
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Originally Posted by Carebear
There just aren’t enough pilots. The big 3 need about 20,000 pilots in the next 7 years. United and Delta are hiring 23-30 year olds left and right, all being thrown in the right seat of widebodies and any other airplane they want. The great pilot shortage we’ve been talking about for the past 15 years to arrive is finally in full force.

There’s a difference between “the company is lying about numbers” vs there just isn’t enough pilots to hire to support the fleet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see all airlines slow growth projections because of it. Over at United, if you get hired on as a 44 year old, you would retire at about number 7000 on the list. Crazy times.
Sure I get that we aren’t as an appealing place of employment as Delta et al, but we just aren’t hiring what we could due to the fact we don’t have the training bandwidth.

I agree that being able to hire good pilot candidates is important. I’ve helped a few out with recommendations and writing a letter of rec. They would up flying somewhere else because they didn’t want to watch the seniority ship sail away while waiting on our training department.
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Old 07-08-2023, 09:46 PM
  #7520  
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Originally Posted by GoodJet
Sure I get that we aren’t as an appealing place of employment as Delta et al, but we just aren’t hiring what we could due to the fact we don’t have the training bandwidth.

They would up flying somewhere else because they didn’t want to watch the seniority ship sail away while waiting on our training department.
Exactly this. I wasn't going to use Alaska as a stepping stone - I want Alaska over the others due to PNW bases, but I am interviewing with United this week and if they offer the job, I imagine I will take it and that will be that.
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