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Old 08-12-2017, 04:20 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
DL 2015(?) civilian avg was 7600 TT and 4100 PIC.
Really??
I was hearing that if you had more than 8k-10k TT you were overqualified ans considered un-trainable at DL.
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Old 08-12-2017, 04:31 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by itsmytime View Post
Nobody minds reality, but let's have it on both sides of the coin. So if bombs fall on NK, does everybody at the airlines stop aging? Retirements are coming regardless of what happens in the world. You would need massive shrinkage of over 5% a year to not need to hire for retirements. And that's just the mandatories. To say nothing of those that leave before 65 or lose their medical, LTD etc.
Just look at what happened after the last black swan event. Most (major) carriers were about 50%-60% their original (2000) size before their respective mergers. While a significant portion of domestic flying was transferred to the regionals. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 51% of all domestic flying is now done by the regionals when it used to be around 10%.

We are already starting to see some furloughing from the top with single FOS and PBS being implemented. I am guessing somewhere between 8%-10% less folks needed. Hard to tell from the recent seniority list since it also purged the remaining furloughees.

In the even of another black swan event, I predict that 10% would be gone almost immediately and another 5%-10% over the next 12-24 months. Scope would be obliterated and even more flying would be transferred to the regionals. Shrink to profitability would stir its ugly head again and even more flying would be transferred to the code-shares. Just look at how many flights BA has into CONUS vs AA to the UK.
Something about that virtual airline that previous management wanted.

Ever time their is supposed to be a pilot shortage, something happens and there is no longer one.

Hope for the best but plan for the worst.
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Old 08-12-2017, 04:48 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
DL 2015(?) civilian avg was 7600 TT and 4100 PIC.

That's the median guy. That's what I'd be shooting for.
May 2105 at ~510 hired was a published 6815TT and 3166 PIC

The average from Jan 2014 to May 2015 was 7293TT and 3790 PIC.

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Originally Posted by Thedude View Post
Really??
I was hearing that if you had more than 8k-10k TT you were overqualified ans considered un-trainable at DL.
Depends? What has one done on their resume BESIDES fly?

There's been pilots at DAL with 20K plus hired.
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Old 08-12-2017, 04:51 PM   #44
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I still think some people don't grasp the number of retirements the next 10 years.
I quite agree. In the next 10 years HALF of all the Legacy Carrier Airline pilots will retire. For American, a little MORE than HALF.

(Southwest, FedEx, and UPS are just a few years behind this with their own huge waves.)

The next decade (11-20 years) will see another 40% retire as well (including a lot of the first hired from the regionals).

This does not consider any growth.

Some major external event can happen, it may cause a blip in the system, but the retirement freight train (sorry to mix my metaphors) is barreling down the track. Nothing is going to stop it.

It is like having a 250 knot tailwind.
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Old 08-12-2017, 05:05 PM   #45
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I quite agree. In the next 10 years HALF of all the Legacy Carrier Airline pilots will retire. For American, a little MORE than HALF.

(Southwest, FedEx, and UPS are just a few years behind this with their own huge waves.)

The next decade (11-20 years) will see another 40% retire as well (including a lot of the first hired from the regionals).

This does not consider any growth.

Some major external event can happen, it may cause a blip in the system, but the retirement freight train (sorry to mix my metaphors) is barreling down the track. Nothing is going to stop it.

It is like having a 250 knot tailwind.
Exactly. This is what makes this time different from all other past hiring booms. It was also mentioned in another thread that a lot of guys getting hired at American now are in their 40's. which will set off a second mini-wave of retirements.
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Old 08-12-2017, 09:18 PM   #46
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even if age 67 happens all its going to do is slightly delay things, wont change the end result.
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Old 08-13-2017, 07:00 AM   #47
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Really??
I was hearing that if you had more than 8k-10k TT you were overqualified ans considered un-trainable at DL.
Oldest was 58. Highest TT was 23,000.
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Old 08-13-2017, 02:44 PM   #48
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So the airlines are just going to massively shrink?
Well, if a major war happened in Asia or just NK, air travel would seize up fast, followed by a the mother of all economic contractions. That would certainly stop hiring for awhile.

9/11 was only over three airliners striking the US and it took a trillion dollars off the world economy. Now multiply that by a 100 times.

GF
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Old 08-13-2017, 10:39 PM   #49
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Greetings fellow aviators,

If anyone currenly at AA can answer this for me it would help me greatly. I am currently working at one of the big ME3 as a WB FO. I would like to return to the US with the wife & kids. I am currently sitting at 7600 TT, A320/ A330 TR, 4 yr deg, former US Marine, Pic 1200 hrs (all GA time during my CFI days), no Jet Pic, International experience. Will AA even take a look at me or would it be better if I go to a regional & get Jet Pic time first? Any advice will be appreciated. Getting tired of the ME. Need to return back. Thank you guys.

Regards
Jet
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Old 08-14-2017, 05:43 AM   #50
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Greetings fellow aviators,

If anyone currenly at AA can answer this for me it would help me greatly. I am currently working at one of the big ME3 as a WB FO. I would like to return to the US with the wife & kids. I am currently sitting at 7600 TT, A320/ A330 TR, 4 yr deg, former US Marine, Pic 1200 hrs (all GA time during my CFI days), no Jet Pic, International experience. Will AA even take a look at me or would it be better if I go to a regional & get Jet Pic time first? Any advice will be appreciated. Getting tired of the ME. Need to return back. Thank you guys.

Regards
Jet
I'm sure they'll look at you. But if you really want to come back to the US. I would go to a WO and wait it out.
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