Block hours aren’t going down so all of those 80 block hours and pilots will have to be absorbed elsewhere. I just don’t see massive displacements occurring.

 

I don’t think we’ll see anymore secondary displacements with the loss of airframes. Too much hiring/training.

 

The vacancy forecast shows big increases in the 737 and 320 staffing for both CA and FO in Nov. It looks like that's where they plan on the S-80 guys going. If they all bid the same thing, they could really screw things up.

 

August to November - +66 737 FO's, +175 320 FO's.

S80 FO's - 175 in November
E190's - 144 in November

They'll figure it out. It might not be perfect but AA won't go away in the end of 2019.

 

https://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/new...-232027-1.html


so the 319neo was certified today, maybe AA orders a bunch of these in lieu of the 220? or 195?

 

Dougweiser says pretty much the same price as a 321, so they don’t want it. I’m not sure if fuel-savings cost would play into their decision or not.

 

The 319Neo was in the works when the CSeries deal was made. Airbus has signaled that the 319Neo was going to be DOA with only a handful of orders. We have stated multiple times that we’d rather order 319’s over a new 100 seat airplane.

Personally I’d love to see the A220, but I’ll take 100+ more 319’s at G2 rates. It would make sense considering training simplicity, new aircraft acquisition costs and new fleet mx, etc...

I wonder how close the cost comparison is to the A220(300 series).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

You all have hinted around what my crystal ball says.

1. It tells me the A319 is almost the price as an A321. At seats for A321 that price is good. At A319 seats that is not as cost effective.

2. Airbus has hinted the A319neo is DOA.

3. The lines for the A319/A320/A321 are booked with A321 orders.

4. Good low hours used A319s are hard to come by.

5. As markets grow and pilot shortage grows, some of the regional 76 seat will grow to mainline 100-130 seat demand. 50 seats will be parked as they are replaced by 76 seats.

6. Airbus is a motivated seller on the A220. They bought it, they want to keep those lines busy, they want to have market share, and they want to prove a good return on their investment. They will keep the price more competitive than the A319.

7. My bet, consistent with the current pay tables, the A220-100 will be Group 1 and A220-300 will be Group 2.

I realize American’s management statements today, and statements of some of the pilots here, are contrary to this. I am looking up over the horizon to see what will happen a few years ahead. Or, for those inclined to chess, I am looking at the chess board, 4 or 5 moves ahead.

 

https://www.airbus.com/content/dam/c...rices-2018.pdf


If the product line is running at a high level putting in a smaller model reduces the total profit. Perhaps AB is less willing to negotiate prices as much for 319 deliveries?

 

Missing from this discussion is the E195-E2. This stretched and updated plane can go further than our E190 and Max out our group 1 limit nicely.

Three classes120 seats | 12 @ 36" | 24 @ 34" | 84 @ 31" pitch

a. Group I: With the exception of aircraft identified in Groups II through V below, any aircraft
configured (i.e. as operated by American Airlines) with greater than seventy-six (76) seats
and less than one-hundred-eighteen (118) seats, including E190/195, CRJ-1000, MRJ-
100, and Bombardier CS100.