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-   -   Furlough Estimates (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/129761-furlough-estimates.html)

sanicom3205 08-20-2020 09:52 AM


Originally Posted by Sandwich Artist (Post 3112870)
How many airlines has Doug Parker taken through Chapter 11?

Zero.

Might as well quit wasting your energy, they never absorb this fact. I honestly don’t feel one way or another about the guy yet but the facts are the facts.

I think everyone would benefit from taking a step back for a couple days. We don’t know what management is thinking. We don’t know what APA is thinking as NDAs have been signed. We don’t know if there will be furloughs. We don’t know if these LOAs saved any jobs or killed any jobs — that leaves us knowing, well, pretty much nothing.

I am neither defending nor denouncing the actions of the union or the company. I will know enough to do so probably by tomorrow or the next day. At that point I will pass judgement, but not before then.

We should exercise some sound judgement and not publicly castigate the union we are members of, letting the company know how divided some of you are before the die is even cast. Many questions will be answered in the next 24-48 hours. Trust me, you can wait.

biigD 08-20-2020 09:55 AM

^^^^ this. Thank you.

Varsity 08-20-2020 11:22 AM


Originally Posted by FetaCheese (Post 3112733)
The most shocking thing about everything that has happened recently is how in a matter of months we at AA went from being the envy of the industry with our LOAs back in April, to the laughing stock of it now.

Other Airlines and their unions are watching as APA blatantly tells 2500 pilots they're not worth saving. They're not important enough. Other airlines are bending over backwards to save their pilots from furlough. Or as many as possible at the least.

APA? Let's throw 2500 (or as many as it takes) pilots on the street rather than risk our senior pilots "only" make $25k a month vs $28k. There needs to be a serious reckoning of APA after all this dust settles.


APA has done this since the beginning of time. Look at the TWA merger.

This is an ugly event. Guys are going to be on the street. It won't be pretty. People will act and vote in their own self interest.

The government cheese is just kicking the can down the road. Outside of getting nationalized like the post office, the outcome is inevitable.

sanicom3205 08-20-2020 11:35 AM


Originally Posted by Varsity (Post 3112957)
Outside of getting nationalized like the post office, the outcome is inevitable.

If only the Madison had snuck airlines into the constitution, I wouldn't be in this situation. Damn those founding fathers!

Mozam 08-20-2020 12:00 PM


Originally Posted by sanicom3205 (Post 3112962)
If only the Madison had snuck airlines into the constitution, I wouldn't be in this situation. Damn those founding fathers!


That was pretty good , I spit my beer out . Thanks for the laughs :)

aquagreen73s 08-20-2020 12:08 PM


Originally Posted by FetaCheese (Post 3112778)
Ex Us Airways/America West guys feel free to chime in. But I see a very disturbing pattern emerging.

FC, I have worked under Parker since the day he became a CEO, 19+ years ago. What is no longer speculative is his business strategy - a strategy that flat out does not plan for anything but usual economic events. There is no contingency planning as that would impact debt servicing and/or stock buy backs. Three times now he has been completely unprepared for black swan events, and three times now his airline financials have been exposed as having no margin to withstand anything beyond a normal, macro economic environment. Black swan events are completely off his radar, and that's likely why he would make a perverse statement that AA would never lose money again. In his mind that was true, but with the condition that the macro picture didn't have any black swans in it. This is why most of us pilots froze when we heard his proclamation because we sure as heck can't go to work thinking that nothing out of the ordinary will occur. It can, and over time certainly will in a long enough career.

So, my suspicion is that AA is in a very poor financial situation as that's exactly what the last two black swan events revealed. It explains the disconnect between AA's furloughs and just about everybody else. It explains why Parker could care less about the horrible optics of the two codeshares with airlines that aren't furloughing while AA is - deeply. The problem now is that this swan is much bigger and angrier than the last two.

R57 relay 08-20-2020 01:02 PM


Originally Posted by aquagreen73s (Post 3112986)
FC, I have worked under Parker since the day he became a CEO, 19+ years ago. What is no longer speculative is his business strategy - a strategy that flat out does not plan for anything but usual economic events. There is no contingency planning as that would impact debt servicing and/or stock buy backs. Three times now he has been completely unprepared for black swan events, and three times now his airline financials have been exposed as having no margin to withstand anything beyond a normal, macro economic environment. Black swan events are completely off his radar, and that's likely why he would make a perverse statement that AA would never lose money again. In his mind that was true, but with the condition that the macro picture didn't have any black swans in it. This is why most of us pilots froze when we heard his proclamation because we sure as heck can't go to work thinking that nothing out of the ordinary will occur. It can, and over time certainly will in a long enough career.

So, my suspicion is that AA is in a very poor financial situation as that's exactly what the last two black swan events revealed. It explains the disconnect between AA's furloughs and just about everybody else. It explains why Parker could care less about the horrible optics of the two codeshares with airlines that aren't furloughing while AA is - deeply. The problem now is that this swan is much bigger and angrier than the last two.


Welcome back. Can't disagree with you.

Dobbs18 08-20-2020 01:46 PM


Originally Posted by aquagreen73s (Post 3112986)
FC, I have worked under Parker since the day he became a CEO, 19+ years ago. What is no longer speculative is his business strategy - a strategy that flat out does not plan for anything but usual economic events. There is no contingency planning as that would impact debt servicing and/or stock buy backs. Three times now he has been completely unprepared for black swan events, and three times now his airline financials have been exposed as having no margin to withstand anything beyond a normal, macro economic environment. Black swan events are completely off his radar, and that's likely why he would make a perverse statement that AA would never lose money again. In his mind that was true, but with the condition that the macro picture didn't have any black swans in it. This is why most of us pilots froze when we heard his proclamation because we sure as heck can't go to work thinking that nothing out of the ordinary will occur. It can, and over time certainly will in a long enough career.

So, my suspicion is that AA is in a very poor financial situation as that's exactly what the last two black swan events revealed. It explains the disconnect between AA's furloughs and just about everybody else. It explains why Parker could care less about the horrible optics of the two codeshares with airlines that aren't furloughing while AA is - deeply. The problem now is that this swan is much bigger and angrier than the last two.

I mean at what point does the BOD vote his ass out??!!! I get that he makes stock holders happy for short periods but come on at what point does his reckless behavior catch up to him? Not planning for a rainy day(year + in this industry) is just foolish. But alas CEOs live in a different world than us...

aquagreen73s 08-20-2020 03:02 PM

They won't vote him out, because he is executing the exact game plan that the powers above Doug - aka his masters - want employed. It's not about building a better structure for the long term even though that type of long term thinking and investing usually yields much better returns for both employees and investors alike. No, it's all about short term gains and the maximum extraction of revenue from the operation for the benefit of the large institutional investors. There is no long term beyond the current business cycle. They're in it until the cycle starts to top, then they sell out to the pension funds and the retail investors with the help of pumped up stock valuations thanks to buy backs and paid financial pundits. Wash rinse repeat. It's the way of modern Wall Street.

Al Czervik 08-21-2020 07:26 AM

Did the company say something would be out today?


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