Furlough Estimates
#201
Maybe not the best thread to post this but close enough for what is current. Here's what I wish I could of asked Vasu because something doesn't add up. We are hoping to reduce cash burn anyway we can. This even to the point of pulling parking permits from airports we don't normally use which is great. So here it goes:
For July wide body 777/787 flying CLT=0, MIA=0, DFW=12-14 average lines/day, LAX=5-6 average lines/day, ORD=1 line/day, PHL=0, and LGA=0. Total 21 lines per day systemwide. Meanwhile as of August 31st captains alone (on 3xp so add double these amounts for total pilots) CLT=49, MIA=149, DFW=380, LAX=117, ORD=81, PHL=111, and LGA=138. That should add up to 1025 captains and maybe 2000 FO/FB/FC for approximately 3000 total wide body crewmembers.
There appears to be a huge disparity between supply and demand. Even if all the excess were on leave making 55 hours per month that's a big cost to carry over until next summer. Am I missing something? Now there is a small bit of domestic mix in the line count above but probably no more than 10-15%. Most think international flying will be the last to return. Conservatively speaking you could at least reduce international wide body staffing by one half and yet no displacements. I dont get it. What strategy do you think AA is formulating if any. Im curious to what others are thinking.
For July wide body 777/787 flying CLT=0, MIA=0, DFW=12-14 average lines/day, LAX=5-6 average lines/day, ORD=1 line/day, PHL=0, and LGA=0. Total 21 lines per day systemwide. Meanwhile as of August 31st captains alone (on 3xp so add double these amounts for total pilots) CLT=49, MIA=149, DFW=380, LAX=117, ORD=81, PHL=111, and LGA=138. That should add up to 1025 captains and maybe 2000 FO/FB/FC for approximately 3000 total wide body crewmembers.
There appears to be a huge disparity between supply and demand. Even if all the excess were on leave making 55 hours per month that's a big cost to carry over until next summer. Am I missing something? Now there is a small bit of domestic mix in the line count above but probably no more than 10-15%. Most think international flying will be the last to return. Conservatively speaking you could at least reduce international wide body staffing by one half and yet no displacements. I dont get it. What strategy do you think AA is formulating if any. Im curious to what others are thinking.
1. it’s incredibly expensive to displace a wide body guy. As he moves down he creates 3-5 more down line secondary / cascading displacements.
2. maybe the plan is to utilize the airplanes domestically on the trunk routes. Reduce frequency, but keep seats into market (saving gas)
3. You’re paying them roughly the same anyways, yes there’s a difference between g4 ca pay and g2 ca pay, but 342 vs 278 may seem far - but keeping displacements in mind furloughing a guy that makes 90 or 137 is perhaps a lot easier and cheaper?
who knows, I doubt aa even truly does at the moment.
#202
some of my thoughts.
1. it’s incredibly expensive to displace a wide body guy. As he moves down he creates 3-5 more down line secondary / cascading displacements.
2. maybe the plan is to utilize the airplanes domestically on the trunk routes. Reduce frequency, but keep seats into market (saving gas)
3. You’re paying them roughly the same anyways, yes there’s a difference between g4 ca pay and g2 ca pay, but 342 vs 278 may seem far - but keeping displacements in mind furloughing a guy that makes 90 or 137 is perhaps a lot easier and cheaper?
who knows, I doubt aa even truly does at the moment.
1. it’s incredibly expensive to displace a wide body guy. As he moves down he creates 3-5 more down line secondary / cascading displacements.
2. maybe the plan is to utilize the airplanes domestically on the trunk routes. Reduce frequency, but keep seats into market (saving gas)
3. You’re paying them roughly the same anyways, yes there’s a difference between g4 ca pay and g2 ca pay, but 342 vs 278 may seem far - but keeping displacements in mind furloughing a guy that makes 90 or 137 is perhaps a lot easier and cheaper?
who knows, I doubt aa even truly does at the moment.
I think that’s why Vasu said we shouldn’t be spring loaded to furlough like we’ve always done. I don’t have any good answers, especially answers that we’d like. Due to the nature of this pandemic, compounded by the fact that our COVID numbers are very high, if we start getting blackballed all over the world, then this starts to really suck. Vasu has been asked about just putting wide bodies on big domestic routes, and he said that the costs are almost always too high. He said Mia-Lax works because of the type of customer that frequents that route.
We were already a very seasonal international airline, more so than our competitors. I have no evidence of this, but I think another move could be to close the 777 fleet, and just grow intl as the new 787s come in. That would be the most drastic measure, but could realign the company with the new look of long haul demand.
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#203
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,285
Likes: 0
From: 175 CA
some of my thoughts.
1. it’s incredibly expensive to displace a wide body guy. As he moves down he creates 3-5 more down line secondary / cascading displacements.
2. maybe the plan is to utilize the airplanes domestically on the trunk routes. Reduce frequency, but keep seats into market (saving gas)
3. You’re paying them roughly the same anyways, yes there’s a difference between g4 ca pay and g2 ca pay, but 342 vs 278 may seem far - but keeping displacements in mind furloughing a guy that makes 90 or 137 is perhaps a lot easier and cheaper?
who knows, I doubt aa even truly does at the moment.
1. it’s incredibly expensive to displace a wide body guy. As he moves down he creates 3-5 more down line secondary / cascading displacements.
2. maybe the plan is to utilize the airplanes domestically on the trunk routes. Reduce frequency, but keep seats into market (saving gas)
3. You’re paying them roughly the same anyways, yes there’s a difference between g4 ca pay and g2 ca pay, but 342 vs 278 may seem far - but keeping displacements in mind furloughing a guy that makes 90 or 137 is perhaps a lot easier and cheaper?
who knows, I doubt aa even truly does at the moment.
You don't fly a widebody domestically to save gas.
You can fly 3 A321's for the fuel flow of a 777.
#204
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 484
Likes: 0
I think that’s why Vasu said we shouldn’t be spring loaded to furlough like we’ve always done. I don’t have any good answers, especially answers that we’d like. Due to the nature of this pandemic, compounded by the fact that our COVID numbers are very high, if we start getting blackballed all over the world, then this starts to really suck. Vasu has been asked about just putting wide bodies on big domestic routes, and he said that the costs are almost always too high. He said Mia-Lax works because of the type of customer that frequents that route.
We were already a very seasonal international airline, more so than our competitors. I have no evidence of this, but I think another move could be to close the 777 fleet, and just grow intl as the new 787s come in. That would be the most drastic measure, but could realign the company with the new look of long haul demand.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We were already a very seasonal international airline, more so than our competitors. I have no evidence of this, but I think another move could be to close the 777 fleet, and just grow intl as the new 787s come in. That would be the most drastic measure, but could realign the company with the new look of long haul demand.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited by Downtime; 07-05-2020 at 07:37 PM.
#206
Im not too sure about all this doom and gloom everyone here is spewing. My flights have been full or nearly full the past several weeks. The airports are crammed. We are running full 319s to Jackson, WY on an equipment sub from an Eagle RJ. MCO flights are packed. We’re filling up 321s from AUS to DFW. My commutes are always nearly full. Even had to ride jumpseat last week. I get that the overseas stuff is dead for now, but the domestic side has recovered nicely. I think everyone has resigned themselves to the fact that COVID is here to stay for a while, there’s nothing they can do about it, and it’s time to get back to their lives.
#207
Im not too sure about all this doom and gloom everyone here is spewing. My flights have been full or nearly full the past several weeks. The airports are crammed. We are running full 319s to Jackson, WY on an equipment sub from an Eagle RJ. MCO flights are packed. We’re filling up 321s from AUS to DFW. My commutes are always nearly full. Even had to ride jumpseat last week. I get that the overseas stuff is dead for now, but the domestic side has recovered nicely. I think everyone has resigned themselves to the fact that COVID is here to stay for a while, there’s nothing they can do about it, and it’s time to get back t o their lives.
#208
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 2,100
Likes: 0
From: C47 PIC/747-400 SIC
you are our least favorite airline to fly because of the lack of social distancing ( ie full middle seats ) on your flights, only Delta and SWA are doing it right, we are pushing our travel department to give preference to them, I hope you don’t furlough anyone, and come out of this intact ( I have many friends who work at AA) , but in the meantime I have no desire to fly on you while your present practices continue. Cheers.
#209
you are our least favorite airline to fly because of the lack of social distancing ( ie full middle seats ) on your flights, only Delta and SWA are doing it right, we are pushing our travel department to give preference to them, I hope you don’t furlough anyone, and come out of this intact ( I have many friends who work at AA) , but in the meantime I have no desire to fly on you while your present practices continue. Cheers.
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