How long will it last?
10-22-2020, 05:12 AM
#241
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,295
Originally Posted by Name User
During the earnings call they stated they have "over 200 older aircraft" they will park if demand remains as it has.
That tells me they do intend to keep the 777s on property.
Bad news however as it takes us to a little under 600 aircraft, and 9000 total +/- pilots.
That tells me they do intend to keep the 777s on property.
Bad news however as it takes us to a little under 600 aircraft, and 9000 total +/- pilots.
10-22-2020, 05:25 AM
#242
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
Originally Posted by FlyyGuyy
Yeah, we're effed. As one of the first furloughs... I'll see y'all in a decade.
Analysts are hitting them hard on what is their future plan, what does a future AA look like, is this a viable business? And quite frankly they (analysts) have some major suspicions that management is blowing smoke.
I feel like these guys don't have a true grasp of how to make AA viable. That is what scares me. People fly AA because they have to (cheap, we serve a destination etc) not because they want to.
10-22-2020, 06:33 AM
#243
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2020
Posts: 484
Originally Posted by Name User
During the earnings call they stated they have "over 200 older aircraft" they will park if demand remains as it has.
That tells me they do intend to keep the 777s on property.
Bad news however as it takes us to a little under 600 aircraft, and 9000 total +/- pilots.
That tells me they do intend to keep the 777s on property.
Bad news however as it takes us to a little under 600 aircraft, and 9000 total +/- pilots.
10-22-2020, 07:12 AM
#244
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
Originally Posted by Downtime
Yeah that 200 was out of 1350 which would include the regionals. So it seems it wouldn’t come out of mainline per se.
Go back a few pages and look at my summary of fleet age and # of aircraft and it closely correlates (outside the 777s) with their mention today. They seem to love 321s so I'd expect the 737s, 319s, and 320s to go.
10-22-2020, 07:29 AM
#245
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
Originally Posted by El Peso
Obviously AA has been taking on huge loans to ride this thing out. Assuming they meet their goal of being cash burn neutral by the end of the year (I know DAL & UAL won’t, but probably by next summer), what would stop AA from returning the money they didn’t need to lenders? Assuming the loan terms allow that.
10-22-2020, 08:42 AM
#247
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 207
Correct me if Im wrong, from a simpletons point of view if at best case we burn 25 million a day and have a bingo amount of 8 billion Prior to BK starting with 13.6 billion at the end of the third quarter we have about 7 to 8 months to play with taking us to April or May of 2021. That of course is counting on some type of cares act getting through so it might not even get us into the spring. Now for the not so good news...
10-22-2020, 08:45 AM
#248
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,503
Originally Posted by Name User
They stated on the earnings call that 40% of our debt is pre-payable without penalty, and the average of our total debt is roughly 4%.
10-22-2020, 09:14 AM
#249
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Yeah, but the LAST sale of junk bonds was at 12%. As those 3.5-4.0% bonds become payable, it is unlikely they will be able to roll it over to new debt at anything resembling 4%. Look at what the yield to payout is of AA bonds in the secondary market is right now.
It's all long term debt. AA isn't financing any more bonds AFAIK and won't until things improve, and by then rates will have normalized (hopefully). We don't even need normal traffic by then, but people booking out into the future. We need a viable path.
Hands down I'm not as nearly concerned about our debt, as I am about the lack of a long term plan for the next 5-10 years.
United had a similar issue post merger and was kinda like a rudderless boat adrift at sea. Munoz worked through it and rallied the employees.
10-22-2020, 11:59 AM
#250
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,503
Originally Posted by Name User
???
It's all long term debt. AA isn't financing any more bonds AFAIK and won't until things improve, and by then rates will have normalized (hopefully). We don't even need normal traffic by then, but people booking out into the future. We need a viable path.
Hands down I'm not as nearly concerned about our debt, as I am about the lack of a long term plan for the next 5-10 years.
United had a similar issue post merger and was kinda like a rudderless boat adrift at sea. Munoz worked through it and rallied the employees.
It's all long term debt. AA isn't financing any more bonds AFAIK and won't until things improve, and by then rates will have normalized (hopefully). We don't even need normal traffic by then, but people booking out into the future. We need a viable path.
Hands down I'm not as nearly concerned about our debt, as I am about the lack of a long term plan for the next 5-10 years.
United had a similar issue post merger and was kinda like a rudderless boat adrift at sea. Munoz worked through it and rallied the employees.
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