How long will it last?
#231
Expect that to be a lot less on the earnings call. First, our burn rate just went way.up without CARES support. Second, no business will run down to zero cash before filing for bankruptcy. Estimates are AAL will have to file when they reach 8 billion. You can't reorganize, operate, and pay all the lawyers with zero cash and record low revenues. Third, the BK laws are not as generous to the company as the last time AAL took this carnival ride. So you 2022 estimate, yeah, cut that in half for the 8 billion cutoff and take a few more months off of that for the lack of government money now burning through the war chest. Why do you think they were so quick to furlough? Why did they bring an executive with BK experience onto the board? Why wouldnt APA answer a direct question about them retaining bankruptcy advisors during the BOS/LGA town hall in Sept? No way this lasts with current conditions until 2022. Spring 2021.Late summer with CARES.
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
These are all valid points, I’m aware of the loan covenants, but I was planning on the growth continuing and them finding more ways to cut expenses, with the cares act extension being a wild card.
I don’t think it’s fair to call us out for being the only one to furlough, Delta is right behind us, and furloughing a larger number, and United took a deal that I don’t think would pass here.
I’m no financial expert, and am learning much of this on the fly, but I think there is still some hope here. I just hope there is enough cash flow for reorganization if that time comes.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
#232
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jan 2009
Posts: 212
These are all valid points, I’m aware of the loan covenants, but I was planning on the growth continuing and them finding more ways to cut expenses, with the cares act extension being a wild card.
I don’t think it’s fair to call us out for being the only one to furlough, Delta is right behind us, and furloughing a larger number, and United took a deal that I don’t think would pass here.
I’m no financial expert, and am learning much of this on the fly, but I think there is still some hope here. I just hope there is enough cash flow for reorganization if that time comes.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I don’t think it’s fair to call us out for being the only one to furlough, Delta is right behind us, and furloughing a larger number, and United took a deal that I don’t think would pass here.
I’m no financial expert, and am learning much of this on the fly, but I think there is still some hope here. I just hope there is enough cash flow for reorganization if that time comes.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
#233
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2015
Position: UNA
Posts: 4,419
again if you owned the Q shares you made out. AMR holders got screwed. You need to read your link. Those with preferred convertible also made out as your link said. THese aren’t common share holders. If you buy common today and they file again it’s virtually worthless.
I was only wrong in that common lost 97% of their investment where I thought it was 100%. But if you still held onto that 3% today’s value would be worth 1 penny of what AMR was converted to.
I was only wrong in that common lost 97% of their investment where I thought it was 100%. But if you still held onto that 3% today’s value would be worth 1 penny of what AMR was converted to.
#234
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
As for cutting expenses... they’ve had 6 months. Pax numbers are climbing VERY slowly, revenue might not even be that good
#235
the reason to declare early isn’t loan covenants entirely. It’s that the company has to either get more loans (debtor in possession financing) or keep using its own cash. AA doesn’t have anything left to mortgage for DIP.
As for cutting expenses... they’ve had 6 months. Pax numbers are climbing VERY slowly, revenue might not even be that good
As for cutting expenses... they’ve had 6 months. Pax numbers are climbing VERY slowly, revenue might not even be that good
There are, IIRC, two tranches maturing, one for a half billion and another for three quarters of a billion. Both of these were sold back when things were good and the company is currently only paying 3 and a half to 4 percent on this money. They are going to need to sell new bonds to pay off the old bonds and that causes a couple of problems.
For one, many of the resources used to collateralize the initial bonds have lost value. Airplanes are parked, many airlines around the world have failed, and there is a glut of used planes driving down the prices. Similarly, with nearly everyone downsizing, gates and slots aren’t the value they once were. So the same assets that collateralized the original bonds may not be enough to collateralize their replacements.
Another issue is that the replacement bonds are unlikely to sell at the same coupon rate as those original bonds. The last bonds that the company sold this summer - $2.5 billion worth - they sold at an effective rate of 12%. So let’s say the 1.25 billion in bonds gets refinanced at 10% rather than 4%, that will cause an increase in the annual debt service of $75 million. The company already pays about a billion dollar in debt service annually, and unless the bond buyers can be calmed down by better earnings and brighter prospects that can only go up.
So I wouldn’t recommend judging what is going on simply by burn rate versus liquidity, you have to judge it by what the market thinks of the company bonds. Because if they can’t bring the cost of borrowing down as that older debt comes due, the increased debt service costs will put the company in a death spiral. However it got there, it’s not going to be able to withstand servicing $40 billion in debt at 12% interest, it just can’t.
#236
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2020
Posts: 484
You might want to do some research before you post. Not all banks where saved nor was all of the auto industry. If DP is hanging his hat on to big to fail , AAL has much bigger problems than I thought .
I personally think AAL will survive this, but I am assuming they have a strategy and not just hanging out at the bar with the to big to fail mentally.
I personally think AAL will survive this, but I am assuming they have a strategy and not just hanging out at the bar with the to big to fail mentally.
#237
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2020
Posts: 484
Expect that to be a lot less on the earnings call. First, our burn rate just went way.up without CARES support. Second, no business will run down to zero cash before filing for bankruptcy. Estimates are AAL will have to file when they reach 8 billion. You can't reorganize, operate, and pay all the lawyers with zero cash and record low revenues. Third, the BK laws are not as generous to the company as the last time AAL took this carnival ride. So you 2022 estimate, yeah, cut that in half for the 8 billion cutoff and take a few more months off of that for the lack of government money now burning through the war chest. Why do you think they were so quick to furlough? Why did they bring an executive with BK experience onto the board? Why wouldnt APA answer a direct question about them retaining bankruptcy advisors during the BOS/LGA town hall in Sept? No way this lasts with current conditions until 2022. Spring 2021.Late summer with CARES.
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
#238
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 618
not true. if you held AMR it turned into AAMRQ stock when AA declared BK, AAMRQ then was converted to AAL stock at about a 1 share of AAMRQ =.75 shares of AAL.( I believe the exact number was .787) If you held AMR stock in 2011 and did not sell it, you had AAL stock in 2015
#239
And yes, in the vast majority of cases, “Q” stock becomes worthless in bankruptcy, but not in every case. That depends on the terms of the bankruptcy. The AMR bankruptcy was one of the relatively rare cases Where the people who held the stock did not see it become worthless.
https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com...amrq-beginning
So, clearly you’ve got a lot of emotional investment of your own in being right about this...but you are not.
#240
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,097
During the earnings call they stated they have "over 200 older aircraft" they will park if demand remains as it has.
That tells me they do intend to keep the 777s on property.
Bad news however as it takes us to a little under 600 aircraft, and 9000 total +/- pilots.
That tells me they do intend to keep the 777s on property.
Bad news however as it takes us to a little under 600 aircraft, and 9000 total +/- pilots.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
TonyWilliams
Hiring News
2
10-24-2008 05:55 AM