View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
Yes
219
70.65%
No
91
29.35%
Voters: 310. You may not vote on this poll
Bankruptcy
01-24-2022 | 09:01 AM
#831
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 370
Likes: 62
Training center in CLT was on the chopping block. They announced the closure and wrongly thought the staff would be willing to go to DFW to continue work. Almost no one committed. They then realized it would worsen the staff shortages we already have.
CLT is dirt cheap to operate. There is zero non instructor staff. One security person at the front desk. Remember too PSA and Piedmont do all their training there.
Interest rates on AA debt are really low. Cost of new aircraft will rise because of inflation and supply pressures. Interest rates on future purchases will be hire. Increase in oil costs will be less significant due to new fleet of very efficient aircraft. Every time I fly the NEO I am amazed at such low fuel flows.
CLT is dirt cheap to operate. There is zero non instructor staff. One security person at the front desk. Remember too PSA and Piedmont do all their training there.
Interest rates on AA debt are really low. Cost of new aircraft will rise because of inflation and supply pressures. Interest rates on future purchases will be hire. Increase in oil costs will be less significant due to new fleet of very efficient aircraft. Every time I fly the NEO I am amazed at such low fuel flows.
01-24-2022 | 09:43 AM
#832
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
Training center in CLT was on the chopping block. They announced the closure and wrongly thought the staff would be willing to go to DFW to continue work. Almost no one committed. They then realized it would worsen the staff shortages we already have.
CLT is dirt cheap to operate. There is zero non instructor staff. One security person at the front desk. Remember too PSA and Piedmont do all their training there.
Interest rates on AA debt are really low. Cost of new aircraft will rise because of inflation and supply pressures. Interest rates on future purchases will be hire. Increase in oil costs will be less significant due to new fleet of very efficient aircraft. Every time I fly the NEO I am amazed at such low fuel flows.
CLT is dirt cheap to operate. There is zero non instructor staff. One security person at the front desk. Remember too PSA and Piedmont do all their training there.
Interest rates on AA debt are really low. Cost of new aircraft will rise because of inflation and supply pressures. Interest rates on future purchases will be hire. Increase in oil costs will be less significant due to new fleet of very efficient aircraft. Every time I fly the NEO I am amazed at such low fuel flows.
01-24-2022 | 09:50 AM
#833
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,237
Likes: 254
Interest rates on AA debt are really low. Cost of new aircraft will rise because of inflation and supply pressures. Interest rates on future purchases will be hire. Increase in oil costs will be less significant due to new fleet of very efficient aircraft. Every time I fly the NEO I am amazed at such low fuel flows.
NEOs and Max’s certainly are more fuel efficient, but they remain a relatively small percentage of the AA fleet. Interest rates are going up and unless one can generate the free cash flow to pay off the old bonds as they mature, you must refinance at the higher rates. Most aircraft orders are backed up for years and will largely have their prices set by the deal that was made when the order was finalized although sale and leaseback terms are likely headed higher in the future because of higher inflation and the fed upping interest rates.
01-24-2022 | 01:36 PM
#834
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,208
Likes: 2
From: B737
I have a feeling that over the next decade, you'll see AA extend the orders of the MAX and NEO in small batches to replace older 737s and Airbii. A number of the 737-800s and 319s/320s are entering their twilight years.
01-24-2022 | 08:13 PM
#835
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,070
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
AA says 30-60 day bookings look really good and they expect to be profitable in March. In the next 5 years instead of buying back shares and spending billions of capex on merger expenses they’ll be paying down $15 billion in debt. I think the biggest issue for legacy carriers is going to be keeping the network together with a shortage of regional pilots. I don’t see how we don’t get to a point where the E175s are on the mainline certificate in a few years if they want to keep the flight frequency up to small/medium sized markets.
Pay off 15 billion of debt in 5 years? That is a pipe dream. AA has never, not even in it's most profitable year ever, been able to generate that kind of cashflow. Not even close. The savings they keep talking about, 900 million a year or what the latest number was again, goes directly into paying the higher interest because of increased borrowing.
They can only touch 7 billion of their liquidity without triggering their loan covenants, so they really don't have that much wiggle room.
They will survive, but it will be interesting to see what plays they will call.
01-27-2022 | 10:38 AM
#836
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 394
Likes: 19
01-27-2022 | 10:42 AM
#837
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 394
Likes: 19
01-27-2022 | 11:36 AM
#838
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
01-27-2022 | 12:01 PM
#839
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 0
NEOs and Max’s certainly are more fuel efficient, but they remain a relatively small percentage of the AA fleet. Interest rates are going up and unless one can generate the free cash flow to pay off the old bonds as they mature, you must refinance at the higher rates. Most aircraft orders are backed up for years and will largely have their prices set by the deal that was made when the order was finalized although sale and leaseback terms are likely headed higher in the future because of higher inflation and the fed upping interest rates.
01-27-2022 | 01:22 PM
#840
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,237
Likes: 254
Current.
https://simpleflying.com/american-airlines-fleet-2021/
Anybody can order as many more as they like and have the money to pay for from the manufacturers I suppose.
Except for Emirates. Airbus and they are apparently in a pi$$ing contest currently.
https://simpleflying.com/american-airlines-fleet-2021/
Anybody can order as many more as they like and have the money to pay for from the manufacturers I suppose.
Except for Emirates. Airbus and they are apparently in a pi$$ing contest currently.
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