View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
Yes
219
70.65%
No
91
29.35%
Voters: 310. You may not vote on this poll
Bankruptcy
01-24-2022, 07:41 AM
#822
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by Al Czervik
AA may very well declare. If that happens UAL and DL will also declare. The other two won’t be able to compete with the new cost structure of the third. That’s been proven previously.
I think it would be just AA, they are not efficient at anything. 3 training centers with a pyramid of salary’s at all 3. 3 WO with a pyramid of salary’s at all 3.
I think Delta outsources more MX to Central America than AA is allowed to.
Delta has 80,000 workers AA has over 100,000, they need a BK to outsource, and trim 20k jobs.
I think almost every job at AA is better than their peers, and there are more of them, except for pilots. I’ve heard topped out AA FAs make more than Delta, and have better cancel rules.
If AA files BK they would lower their cost to match their peers, that would effect every group except pilots since they are the ones without higher cost.
01-24-2022, 07:59 AM
#824
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by AllYourBaseAreB
2 training centers. Was going to be one but someone realized that was a bad idea in the short term
01-24-2022, 08:14 AM
#827
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 511
AA says 30-60 day bookings look really good and they expect to be profitable in March. In the next 5 years instead of buying back shares and spending billions of capex on merger expenses they’ll be paying down $15 billion in debt. I think the biggest issue for legacy carriers is going to be keeping the network together with a shortage of regional pilots. I don’t see how we don’t get to a point where the E175s are on the mainline certificate in a few years if they want to keep the flight frequency up to small/medium sized markets.
01-24-2022, 08:16 AM
#828
You scratched my anchor
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 4,878
Originally Posted by Dunkin
AA says 30-60 day bookings look really good and they expect to be profitable in March. In the next 5 years instead of buying back shares and spending billions of capex on merger expenses they’ll be paying down $15 billion in debt. I think the biggest issue for legacy carriers is going to be keeping the network together with a shortage of regional pilots. I don’t see how we don’t get to a point where the E175s are on the mainline certificate in a few years if they want to keep the flight frequency up to small/medium sized markets.
01-24-2022, 08:33 AM
#829
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2018
Posts: 564
Originally Posted by OpieTaylor
I think it would be just AA, they are not efficient at anything. 3 training centers with a pyramid of salary’s at all 3. 3 WO with a pyramid of salary’s at all 3.
I think Delta outsources more MX to Central America than AA is allowed to.
Delta has 80,000 workers AA has over 100,000, they need a BK to outsource, and trim 20k jobs.
I think almost every job at AA is better than their peers, and there are more of them, except for pilots. I’ve heard topped out AA FAs make more than Delta, and have better cancel rules.
If AA files BK they would lower their cost to match their peers, that would effect every group except pilots since they are the ones without higher cost.
I think Delta outsources more MX to Central America than AA is allowed to.
Delta has 80,000 workers AA has over 100,000, they need a BK to outsource, and trim 20k jobs.
I think almost every job at AA is better than their peers, and there are more of them, except for pilots. I’ve heard topped out AA FAs make more than Delta, and have better cancel rules.
If AA files BK they would lower their cost to match their peers, that would effect every group except pilots since they are the ones without higher cost.
2 training centers for now, but the goal is one and the clt center is just a necessity at the moment.
3 WO... well having 3 was very good when the contacts were negotiated 2011 through 2015 when the contacts were concessionary, "Jets for Jobs" and pitting the three groups between eachother. Today the pilot group costs are very high along with the total operation. I suspect their will be a major shakeup in the AAL regional fleet and WOs. This will probably happen to the other airlines aswell. The economics of contract FFD flying just isn't going to make a much sense as the companies recover. I suspect there will be consolidation and more blood on the water as MESA, Skywest and others
As far as the envoy and Piedmont ground handling, AAG saves oodles with them. And when a station or a contractor gets too expensive to operate it shuffles Piedmont or Envoy in. Including when a station is envoy with senior members, magically is Piedmont tomorrow and jet stream the next day.
If a flight attendant had done their job for 30 years, great, let them make a decent salary. Yes flight attendants are a huge labor group, but price of labor is going to continue to rise. I belive we are 4.5% on the late yoy numbers..
Going to be tough to lower cost of labor in tight labor market and relatively high inflation.
The regional flying that American relies on is going to be a problem though. Cost to run these operations is getting astronomically higher.
If Ukraine stabilizes, which I'm sure it will eventually.. port's continue to get rid of the backlog.. used car prices come down.. stock market stabilizes.. omicron ends.. fluvid shot comes out along with readily accessible antivals. Travel restrictions ease and much needed business travel returns, which should be quite a bit, travel industry should return well along with AAL, DAL and UAL. Will AAL management succeed in properly pivoting to take advantage... I think so.. will they do it perfectly no.. will their be missed opportunities.. sure.. but with the chips they have I think AAL along with the other 2 or in the best positions to continue business.
Americans pilot group is going to get very young very quick, which reduces overall labor cost with retirees leaving. Over 30 percent of the airline is going be on year 3 pay or less this end of this year.
Doom and gloom does nothing.. everthing works out in the end...
01-24-2022, 08:47 AM
#830
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
I guess ill take a swing..
2 training centers for now, but the goal is one and the clt center is just a necessity at the moment.
3 WO... well having 3 was very good when the contacts were negotiated 2011 through 2015 when the contacts were concessionary, "Jets for Jobs" and pitting the three groups between eachother. Today the pilot group costs are very high along with the total operation. I suspect their will be a major shakeup in the AAL regional fleet and WOs. This will probably happen to the other airlines aswell. The economics of contract FFD flying just isn't going to make a much sense as the companies recover. I suspect there will be consolidation and more blood on the water as MESA, Skywest and others
As far as the envoy and Piedmont ground handling, AAG saves oodles with them. And when a station or a contractor gets too expensive to operate it shuffles Piedmont or Envoy in. Including when a station is envoy with senior members, magically is Piedmont tomorrow and jet stream the next day.
If a flight attendant had done their job for 30 years, great, let them make a decent salary. Yes flight attendants are a huge labor group, but price of labor is going to continue to rise. I belive we are 4.5% on the late yoy numbers..
Going to be tough to lower cost of labor in tight labor market and relatively high inflation.
The regional flying that American relies on is going to be a problem though. Cost to run these operations is getting astronomically higher.
If Ukraine stabilizes, which I'm sure it will eventually.. port's continue to get rid of the backlog.. used car prices come down.. stock market stabilizes.. omicron ends.. fluvid shot comes out along with readily accessible antivals. Travel restrictions ease and much needed business travel returns, which should be quite a bit, travel industry should return well along with AAL, DAL and UAL. Will AAL management succeed in properly pivoting to take advantage... I think so.. will they do it perfectly no.. will their be missed opportunities.. sure.. but with the chips they have I think AAL along with the other 2 or in the best positions to continue business.
Americans pilot group is going to get very young very quick, which reduces overall labor cost with retirees leaving. Over 30 percent of the airline is going be on year 3 pay or less this end of this year.
Doom and gloom does nothing.. everthing works out in the end...
2 training centers for now, but the goal is one and the clt center is just a necessity at the moment.
3 WO... well having 3 was very good when the contacts were negotiated 2011 through 2015 when the contacts were concessionary, "Jets for Jobs" and pitting the three groups between eachother. Today the pilot group costs are very high along with the total operation. I suspect their will be a major shakeup in the AAL regional fleet and WOs. This will probably happen to the other airlines aswell. The economics of contract FFD flying just isn't going to make a much sense as the companies recover. I suspect there will be consolidation and more blood on the water as MESA, Skywest and others
As far as the envoy and Piedmont ground handling, AAG saves oodles with them. And when a station or a contractor gets too expensive to operate it shuffles Piedmont or Envoy in. Including when a station is envoy with senior members, magically is Piedmont tomorrow and jet stream the next day.
If a flight attendant had done their job for 30 years, great, let them make a decent salary. Yes flight attendants are a huge labor group, but price of labor is going to continue to rise. I belive we are 4.5% on the late yoy numbers..
Going to be tough to lower cost of labor in tight labor market and relatively high inflation.
The regional flying that American relies on is going to be a problem though. Cost to run these operations is getting astronomically higher.
If Ukraine stabilizes, which I'm sure it will eventually.. port's continue to get rid of the backlog.. used car prices come down.. stock market stabilizes.. omicron ends.. fluvid shot comes out along with readily accessible antivals. Travel restrictions ease and much needed business travel returns, which should be quite a bit, travel industry should return well along with AAL, DAL and UAL. Will AAL management succeed in properly pivoting to take advantage... I think so.. will they do it perfectly no.. will their be missed opportunities.. sure.. but with the chips they have I think AAL along with the other 2 or in the best positions to continue business.
Americans pilot group is going to get very young very quick, which reduces overall labor cost with retirees leaving. Over 30 percent of the airline is going be on year 3 pay or less this end of this year.
Doom and gloom does nothing.. everthing works out in the end...
I don’t think if they did file for BK it would trigger two others because their is so much fruit they don’t pick for lots of reasons.
A BK won’t just make them lean an mean and able to price cut D and U into a BK.
I am proud their labor groups have been able to prevent outsourcing, and retain wages against their peers at other shops.
I do think one tactic the APA needs to use is to show mgmt how their non pilot labor groups stack against their peers and they do not.
Why should AA pilots be in 3rd place, if they are, if all the other trades aren’t.
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