Again, why would we vote for a lower rate for anything right now if we have all the leverage? I could see, maybe, a new category being created that is current book group 1 pay, with everything else getting boosted, in an entirely new contract, not an LOA.

if you onboard a bunch of RJ guys at once and keep them at subpar mainline wages for a few years with fences they will still be bailing left and right and the company will have solved nothing

 

Disagree. The key is one legacy putting 50-76 seats on a mainline list. As an aside, my guess is that will be DAL, whom I believe already have a CRJ900 rate in their contract (they still do pay rates per type).

Beyond that, I think you see the other two legacies (UAL, AA, and maybe Alaska) panic and then do the same thing.

Wild cards in that process would be a SKW OR RAH acquisition by any of the legacies and then detangling all the aircraft operated for other carriers. That could be a catalyst.

At the end of the day I think the goal is to get all those aircraft on one seniority list, then the competition for pilots via pay rates that we’ve seen over the last 5 years continues.

Don’t let perfect be the enemy of the good.


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Delta is already putting regional jets on their list. They are the 220's. The more 220s they add, the fewer 50-76 seat regional jets they need.

They can cut service to a "regional" city from 7 RJ flights down to 4-5 220 flights, move more passengers, fewer pilots needed, and on the mainline certificate.

A slower, gradual replacement.

 

You're not wrong; if you used to work where I worked there are quite a few places where we parked our band new CRJ900s right next to 717s (haven't seen a 220 yet).

But if they want to operate 76 seat aircraft, I'm of the position that outsourced carriers aren't going to be able to staff appropriately sooner rather than later.

 

The only thing that makes regional jets make sense is the lower wages. Other than that, there's no difference between one less 717 or 220 to a regional city.

Now that the regionals have to offer big bonuses and higher pay to get butts in the seats, that gap keeps decreasing and it makes sense to mainlines to protect their brand by bringing that flying in house. It's really that simple. Look for this trend to continue. Soon, SkyWest and Republic will be the only RJ operators (E175), and they will do the scraps mainlines cant do with 717s/220s/737s/319/320s. CRJs and E145s will be gone. There isn't anyone left to fly them.

 

I'm gonna disagree with you slightly.

RJs allow mainline carriers to provide the same level of frequency in smaller markets that they do in larger ones, probably more of an issue for Business travelers than leisure, but there's also a leisure crowd that appreciates having 1 hour layovers in hubs vs 3.

That, and that allows for a certain level of rebooking and flexibility when IROPs and mx issues hit. In certain parts of the areas of the country PSA serves, the moment there's a delay or weather issue there's 2-3 other hubs in play that passengers can be re-routed through. I was in one of our larger outstations a while back when a LCC had to do a return to field for a mx issue. The outcome for passengers? A no questions asked refund and "Have a nice day," because the next flight wasn't for two days and was already full with whatever bargain basement fares they were advertising.

Whatever value Vasu and his minions apply to that is up to them, but there's a certain level of flexibility and resiliency that RJs contribute to that isn't solely seen in the bottom line.

And people keep missing the point I'm trying to bring up: the missing part of the compensation for 76 seat aircraft is accruing seniority on a seniority list that they want to be on for the next 20-30+ years. The first carrier that figures that out and solves that problem can have as many pilots for those airplanes at current rates as they want, until the other 2-3 carriers with significant outsourced lift join in and the competition for pilots via compensation starts all over again.

As I type this, money really isn't the issue, or the retention bonus AAG offered the regionals would've had a much higher uptake. It's all about the longer term benefits that accruing seniority on a mainline list ultimately provide, and pilots are keen not to miss out on.

 

long term with the ability to plan ahead? Yes

but 1/3 of the big 3 have those planes and 0/3 have lots of spare capacity.

so short term (short defined as time needed to manufacture several hundred 220’s) they need the 76 seat jets. And the sooner they get the jets and the pilots tacked down the better

 

That's also a good point as well.

 

Theyll keep the seats filled with not having to hope to flow, the light at the end of the tunnel will be daylight instead if a train coming at them. They will all get a raise too, it just won’t be at current 100 seat pay to fly 5-0+76 seaters.

 

Delta has 76 seat rates. Roughly $100 fo, $175 captain