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Old 11-11-2021 | 06:23 PM
  #741  
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT
this is a two-part transaction. The first part was considered investment grade (see link)
Correct. The pass through certificates were collateralized by new A321 and E-175 aircraft that were worth more than the certificates were sold for, allowing them to be rated BB+ which on the Fitch and S+P scales is investment grade, albeit at the low end.
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Old 11-11-2021 | 09:44 PM
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Alaska is A1 rated I believe.
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Old 11-11-2021 | 10:45 PM
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Transaction Summary: The class B certificates are an add-on to the class A certificates announced on Oct. 25. Fitch rated the class A certificates 'A'. The class A certificate ratings are unaffected by the issuance of the class B certificates.”
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Old 11-12-2021 | 05:20 AM
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Originally Posted by ZeroTT
Transaction Summary: The class B certificates are an add-on to the class A certificates announced on Oct. 25. Fitch rated the class A certificates 'A'. The class A certificate ratings are unaffected by the issuance of the class B certificates.”
Yep. They rated two different tranches of certificates with different ratings. With good collateral (a lot of new aircraft or support equipment for instance) you can (generally) up the rating of your certificates to (generally) allow borrowing at a lower rate. What actually determines the actual effective rate is what people are willing to pay at auction at the time of sales, and that is dependent on buyer sentiment and - especially - buyer expectation of what else they can do with that money. While collateralization somewhat protects bond and certificate buyers against the possibility of loss IF THE BONDS OR CERTIFICATES ARE HELD TO MATURITY if they need to be sold before maturity (in the secondary market) at a time of higher bond yield, the sellers can still lose money on the investment. Similarly, if buyers tie up their capital for years by buying currently priced bonds or certificates, they will forfeit the opportunity to invest that capital at higher rates shoukd inflation ouch up bond coupons. And the protection is “somewhat” because all the collateral is in aircraft related equipment and in the event of another black swan event affecting flying (pandemic, war, $300 a barrel oil, etc.) the value of these items could plummet and the certificate owners wind up actually losing money.

There is a whole financial industry that works these issues and the only guaranteed winners appear to be the underwriters and the rating agencies themselves, who take their cut of the action off the top.

The write up by the ratings agencies are particularly interesting because they give what the ratings agencies believe to be critical issues to watch for the company’s rating. Example:

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS



The ratings could be downgraded if Moody's expects operating cash flow in 2022 to remain below $1.5 billion, if cash approaches $6 billion or cash plus revolver availability falls below $8 billion or EBIT margin or debt/EBITDA in 2023 remain below 7.5% and above 6.5x, respectively. The ratings could be upgraded if EBITDA margins exceed 15%, debt-to-EBITDA will be sustained below 5x and funds from operations plus interest-to-interest approaches 4x.



Any combination of future changes in the underlying credit quality or ratings of American, Moody's opinion of the importance of particular aircraft to American's network, or in Moody's estimates of aircraft market values which will affect estimates of loan-to-value, can result in changes to EETC ratings.
And to a limited extent these rating agency statements become a self fulfilling prophecy since lower ratings affect the market to cause higher debt service costs for the lower rated companies.

Last edited by Excargodog; 11-12-2021 at 05:36 AM.
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Old 11-12-2021 | 06:46 AM
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Just let me know when it's time for me to buy that van for down by the river!
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Old 11-12-2021 | 06:50 AM
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Originally Posted by biigD
Just let me know when it's time for me to buy that van for down by the river!
Don’t forget to get your financial house in order before things fall apart!
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Old 11-12-2021 | 07:23 AM
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Originally Posted by TorqueWrench
Don’t forget to get your financial house in order before things fall apart!
if your house isn’t in order now it’s too late, duh! Have you learned nothing from the doomsday-ers on here?!
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Old 11-17-2021 | 09:07 PM
  #748  
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Originally Posted by TallFlyer
Disagree. The key is one legacy putting 50-76 seats on a mainline list. As an aside, my guess is that will be DAL, whom I believe already have a CRJ900 rate in their contract (they still do pay rates per type).

Beyond that, I think you see the other two legacies (UAL, AA, and maybe Alaska) panic and then do the same thing.

Wild cards in that process would be a SKW OR RAH acquisition by any of the legacies and then detangling all the aircraft operated for other carriers. That could be a catalyst.

At the end of the day I think the goal is to get all those aircraft on one seniority list, then the competition for pilots via pay rates that we’ve seen over the last 5 years continues.

Don’t let perfect be the enemy of the good.


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here is a idea
what if everyone that is at Envoy, Piedmont, PSA that is with in one year of flowing to AA is given a AA seniority number, but they stay at the regional until flow date. You could throw in retaining pay seniority when you flow as well (better than retention bonus) You then would never have a problem staffing a wholly owned regional. It’s free for AA and they can merge each wholly owned by hire date and last four of social when they give out the seniority numbers. just a thought.
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Old 11-17-2021 | 09:22 PM
  #749  
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Originally Posted by Virga show
here is a idea
what if everyone that is at Envoy, Piedmont, PSA that is with in one year of flowing to AA is given a AA seniority number, but they stay at the regional until flow date. You could throw in retaining pay seniority when you flow as well (better than retention bonus) You then would never have a problem staffing a wholly owned regional. It’s free for AA and they can merge each wholly owned by hire date and last four of social when they give out the seniority numbers. just a thought.
So someone hired from say the military will watch Eagle pilots consistently move in ahead of them on the seniority list as new hires for the first year? Ya that’ll dry up the application pool in a hurry.
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Old 11-17-2021 | 09:36 PM
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Originally Posted by El Peso
So someone hired from say the military will watch Eagle pilots consistently move in ahead of them on the seniority list as new hires for the first year? Ya that’ll dry up the application pool in a hurry.

Well to be fair, Eagle pilot’s WERE on the AAG payroll FIRST. So….


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