View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
Yes



219
70.65%
No



91
29.35%
Voters: 310. You may not vote on this poll
Bankruptcy
#741
Correct. The pass through certificates were collateralized by new A321 and E-175 aircraft that were worth more than the certificates were sold for, allowing them to be rated BB+ which on the Fitch and S+P scales is investment grade, albeit at the low end.
#743
Banned
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Likes: 0
“Transaction Summary: The class B certificates are an add-on to the class A certificates announced on Oct. 25. Fitch rated the class A certificates 'A'. The class A certificate ratings are unaffected by the issuance of the class B certificates.”
#744
There is a whole financial industry that works these issues and the only guaranteed winners appear to be the underwriters and the rating agencies themselves, who take their cut of the action off the top.
The write up by the ratings agencies are particularly interesting because they give what the ratings agencies believe to be critical issues to watch for the company’s rating. Example:
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be downgraded if Moody's expects operating cash flow in 2022 to remain below $1.5 billion, if cash approaches $6 billion or cash plus revolver availability falls below $8 billion or EBIT margin or debt/EBITDA in 2023 remain below 7.5% and above 6.5x, respectively. The ratings could be upgraded if EBITDA margins exceed 15%, debt-to-EBITDA will be sustained below 5x and funds from operations plus interest-to-interest approaches 4x.
Any combination of future changes in the underlying credit quality or ratings of American, Moody's opinion of the importance of particular aircraft to American's network, or in Moody's estimates of aircraft market values which will affect estimates of loan-to-value, can result in changes to EETC ratings.
The ratings could be downgraded if Moody's expects operating cash flow in 2022 to remain below $1.5 billion, if cash approaches $6 billion or cash plus revolver availability falls below $8 billion or EBIT margin or debt/EBITDA in 2023 remain below 7.5% and above 6.5x, respectively. The ratings could be upgraded if EBITDA margins exceed 15%, debt-to-EBITDA will be sustained below 5x and funds from operations plus interest-to-interest approaches 4x.
Any combination of future changes in the underlying credit quality or ratings of American, Moody's opinion of the importance of particular aircraft to American's network, or in Moody's estimates of aircraft market values which will affect estimates of loan-to-value, can result in changes to EETC ratings.
Last edited by Excargodog; 11-12-2021 at 05:36 AM.
#747
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 592
Likes: 1
#748
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 147
Likes: 0
Disagree. The key is one legacy putting 50-76 seats on a mainline list. As an aside, my guess is that will be DAL, whom I believe already have a CRJ900 rate in their contract (they still do pay rates per type).
Beyond that, I think you see the other two legacies (UAL, AA, and maybe Alaska) panic and then do the same thing.
Wild cards in that process would be a SKW OR RAH acquisition by any of the legacies and then detangling all the aircraft operated for other carriers. That could be a catalyst.
At the end of the day I think the goal is to get all those aircraft on one seniority list, then the competition for pilots via pay rates that we’ve seen over the last 5 years continues.
Don’t let perfect be the enemy of the good.
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Beyond that, I think you see the other two legacies (UAL, AA, and maybe Alaska) panic and then do the same thing.
Wild cards in that process would be a SKW OR RAH acquisition by any of the legacies and then detangling all the aircraft operated for other carriers. That could be a catalyst.
At the end of the day I think the goal is to get all those aircraft on one seniority list, then the competition for pilots via pay rates that we’ve seen over the last 5 years continues.
Don’t let perfect be the enemy of the good.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
what if everyone that is at Envoy, Piedmont, PSA that is with in one year of flowing to AA is given a AA seniority number, but they stay at the regional until flow date. You could throw in retaining pay seniority when you flow as well (better than retention bonus) You then would never have a problem staffing a wholly owned regional. It’s free for AA and they can merge each wholly owned by hire date and last four of social when they give out the seniority numbers. just a thought.
#749
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 0
here is a idea
what if everyone that is at Envoy, Piedmont, PSA that is with in one year of flowing to AA is given a AA seniority number, but they stay at the regional until flow date. You could throw in retaining pay seniority when you flow as well (better than retention bonus) You then would never have a problem staffing a wholly owned regional. It’s free for AA and they can merge each wholly owned by hire date and last four of social when they give out the seniority numbers. just a thought.
what if everyone that is at Envoy, Piedmont, PSA that is with in one year of flowing to AA is given a AA seniority number, but they stay at the regional until flow date. You could throw in retaining pay seniority when you flow as well (better than retention bonus) You then would never have a problem staffing a wholly owned regional. It’s free for AA and they can merge each wholly owned by hire date and last four of social when they give out the seniority numbers. just a thought.
#750
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 311
Likes: 0
Well to be fair, Eagle pilot’s WERE on the AAG payroll FIRST. So….
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