View Poll Results: Will AA declare bankruptcy?
Yes
219
70.65%
No
91
29.35%
Voters: 310. You may not vote on this poll
Bankruptcy
02-09-2022 | 10:50 AM
#881
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2021
Posts: 622
Likes: 49
You are conveniently avoiding answering the question or dealing with the real issue, which was fleet efficiency. The posting touted narrowbody fleet efficiency, and while I will concede you aren’t in any way responsible for Boeings 737 and 787 problems, that is currently a side issue.
Right now F9 has over 70% NEOs:
htt
Spirit had these numbers as of Sep 2021 and has added NEOs since and will add 24 more this year.
As NK retires 319s and adds 320/321 NEOs their percentage of newer and more fuel efficient aircraft will continue to rise.
The original assertion was that AA had a newer and more fuel efficient NB fleet than anybody else. That statement is demonstrably not true. I NEVER MADE the straw man argument that AA “doesn’t or won’t have a fuel efficient fleet,” merely that their were others with newer and more fuel efficient fleets. AA holds no real advantage over others in this regard.
Right now F9 has over 70% NEOs:
httSpirit had these numbers as of Sep 2021 and has added NEOs since and will add 24 more this year.
As NK retires 319s and adds 320/321 NEOs their percentage of newer and more fuel efficient aircraft will continue to rise.
The original assertion was that AA had a newer and more fuel efficient NB fleet than anybody else. That statement is demonstrably not true. I NEVER MADE the straw man argument that AA “doesn’t or won’t have a fuel efficient fleet,” merely that their were others with newer and more fuel efficient fleets. AA holds no real advantage over others in this regard.
A real comparison is not the percentage of the fleet that is MAX or NEO, but total monthly block hours operated with them.
If Frontier is putting up 100,000 block hours a month with fuel efficient aircraft, and AA is also putting up 100,000 block hours with the same planes then they are not at any competitive disadvantage.
02-09-2022 | 10:57 AM
#883
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 699
Likes: 0
There is zero chance that in this hiring environment Frontier is going to be able to grow. Right now, Delta/American/United/UPS/FedEx do not have 100% full classes. It would only take a couple months of targeted hiring by the big airlines and Frontier would lose hundreds and hundreds of pilots. Maintaining the same size would be a huge accomplishment, but one that is not likely.
Every month, American/United/Delta will combine to hire over 500 pilots. That is all year long. Every single month. It won't take long to decimate the regionals and ULCCs.
Once all of the regional pilots are cherry picked, the big boys will move on and terrorize the ULCC's by hiring all of their pilots.
Until the ULCC's can compete with the pay, benefits, opportunities, and long term stability that is offered by the legacy airlines, they don't stand a chance to keep their good pilots.
Every month, American/United/Delta will combine to hire over 500 pilots. That is all year long. Every single month. It won't take long to decimate the regionals and ULCCs.
Once all of the regional pilots are cherry picked, the big boys will move on and terrorize the ULCC's by hiring all of their pilots.
Until the ULCC's can compete with the pay, benefits, opportunities, and long term stability that is offered by the legacy airlines, they don't stand a chance to keep their good pilots.
02-09-2022 | 11:40 AM
#884
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2021
Posts: 412
Likes: 69
There is zero chance that in this hiring environment Frontier is going to be able to grow. Right now, Delta/American/United/UPS/FedEx do not have 100% full classes. It would only take a couple months of targeted hiring by the big airlines and Frontier would lose hundreds and hundreds of pilots. Maintaining the same size would be a huge accomplishment, but one that is not likely.
Every month, American/United/Delta will combine to hire over 500 pilots. That is all year long. Every single month. It won't take long to decimate the regionals and ULCCs.
Once all of the regional pilots are cherry picked, the big boys will move on and terrorize the ULCC's by hiring all of their pilots.
Until the ULCC's can compete with the pay, benefits, opportunities, and long term stability that is offered by the legacy airlines, they don't stand a chance to keep their good pilots.
Every month, American/United/Delta will combine to hire over 500 pilots. That is all year long. Every single month. It won't take long to decimate the regionals and ULCCs.
Once all of the regional pilots are cherry picked, the big boys will move on and terrorize the ULCC's by hiring all of their pilots.
Until the ULCC's can compete with the pay, benefits, opportunities, and long term stability that is offered by the legacy airlines, they don't stand a chance to keep their good pilots.
02-09-2022 | 11:40 AM
#885
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,166
Likes: 62
From: 737 CA
There is zero chance that in this hiring environment Frontier is going to be able to grow. Right now, Delta/American/United/UPS/FedEx do not have 100% full classes. It would only take a couple months of targeted hiring by the big airlines and Frontier would lose hundreds and hundreds of pilots. Maintaining the same size would be a huge accomplishment, but one that is not likely.
Every month, American/United/Delta will combine to hire over 500 pilots. That is all year long. Every single month. It won't take long to decimate the regionals and ULCCs.
Once all of the regional pilots are cherry picked, the big boys will move on and terrorize the ULCC's by hiring all of their pilots.
Until the ULCC's can compete with the pay, benefits, opportunities, and long term stability that is offered by the legacy airlines, they don't stand a chance to keep their good pilots.
Every month, American/United/Delta will combine to hire over 500 pilots. That is all year long. Every single month. It won't take long to decimate the regionals and ULCCs.
Once all of the regional pilots are cherry picked, the big boys will move on and terrorize the ULCC's by hiring all of their pilots.
Until the ULCC's can compete with the pay, benefits, opportunities, and long term stability that is offered by the legacy airlines, they don't stand a chance to keep their good pilots.
02-09-2022 | 11:52 AM
#886
Atmospheric Penetrator
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 248
Likes: 1
02-09-2022 | 12:04 PM
#887
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
He and I are just observing trends and commenting on them.
I've told regional pilots a few years ago that the regional model would be dead in the not too distant future. Assuming no major economic changes or another flareup of Covid, 12 months from now, regionals will be near extinct and ULCCs will be shrinking.
While it took some time for regionals to shrink, I would expect the ULCC shrinkage to be accelerated.
But I'm only looking at the trends and forecasting based on current trends. It's possible things could change, but I don't see anything on the horizon that will change the trajectory.
Revisit this subject at the end of the summer. I'll be curious to see how worn out you are - it'll be profitable for you, but it'll be a brutal summer.
I've told regional pilots a few years ago that the regional model would be dead in the not too distant future. Assuming no major economic changes or another flareup of Covid, 12 months from now, regionals will be near extinct and ULCCs will be shrinking.
While it took some time for regionals to shrink, I would expect the ULCC shrinkage to be accelerated.
But I'm only looking at the trends and forecasting based on current trends. It's possible things could change, but I don't see anything on the horizon that will change the trajectory.
Revisit this subject at the end of the summer. I'll be curious to see how worn out you are - it'll be profitable for you, but it'll be a brutal summer.
02-09-2022 | 12:07 PM
#888
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 5,213
Likes: 14
From: guppy CA
They could do a secondary stock offering to gain more working capital. There are other games that can be played to avoid Ch 11.
Due to changes in BK laws with respect to maintaining/losing control of the company, they'll likely do anything they can to avoid Ch 11.
Due to changes in BK laws with respect to maintaining/losing control of the company, they'll likely do anything they can to avoid Ch 11.
02-09-2022 | 12:16 PM
#889
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
still be chair of the board after he steps down as CEO??
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