I got it, he said the early bird gets the worm.

The first 15 months of pandemic were liquidity and daily cash burn. Month 16 1-3% cuts to schedules and AA should have immediately disregarded cash burn for 15 months to be in position for month 16 and captured 3% for 30-60 days until they can catch up.

Still no data to support 3% cancellations equals 3% lost revenue.

 

Plus the 16% 401K and profit sharing.

 

But how did you know? What information did you have that said Q3 and Q4 2021 will be better than Q3 Q4 2019. How are you navigating everyone else’s uncharted waters?

 

It doesn’t matter what he thinks, or you think, or what I think. The company thought that furloughs would hurt them. They were right. That’s it, no one said anything about a 1 to 1 ratio of revenue to flights cancelled or whatever. It’s bad business, even according to their own logic

 

If you stepped outside the bubble, you would not need this explained to you.

 

A little exercise for those running numbers.

The company cancels 1% of flying in July vs. offering premium.

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What an embarrassment of an operation. Eventually DUI Doug and the boys will get the ball rolling for BK, but until then the show down in Fort Worth has been everything I expected and more. This so called Airline is an action packed thriller.

 

I didn’t nor do I claim to have any info or insight then or now. However, did United with the largest exposure to international and wide body fleet furlough? Delta with their JV’s going bankrupt and losing big on them furlough?

Did they threaten furloughs, absolutely. Did they have management saying that furloughs was the absolute wrong decision and they wouldn’t do it so they could take market share and be prepared for a recovery? Not to my knowledge. If they did, well they didn’t furlough and get caught with their pants down much like AA.

If AA sends a message they better live by it. Right now WE’RE dying by it and expected to do more because of their ineptness. Asking work groups to volunteer to work for free because they screwed up, give me a break. They don’t care about us and have proven they can’t handle running a company. We made less money than competitors during the good times! It’s just embarrassing now.

 

I guess i'd be careful assuming the medical career is ultra stable even in a black swan type event. It is in some ways. But. In my wife's physician practice in a large metropolitan area, due to Covid and the subsequent huge patient volume drop (pediatric emergency hospital), they canned a whole lot of the PA's and NP's almost overnight. Not furloughed to come back later. Just gone. See ya. It was unfortunate. Thankfully she was relatively safe from getting axed due to her being very specialized, although her paychecks took a pretty huge hit until relatively recently.

And here I am almost at the bottom of a legacy seniority list and the paychecks still kept clearing every month. Go figure. Oh and on the schedule side, her and her co-workers all still have to share the load of working the occasional overnight shifts and weekends/holidays, getting off shift 4 hours late and being exhausted with the kids while im out on a 4-day, etc etc. No seniority system in place to ensure you might have increased QOL control as you get older. No easy path to no nights/weekends/holidays. I'm also only speaking for her particular practice, I suppose it could be different elsewhere. I guess just pluses and minuses to whatever career one chooses. She still loves it.

 

This is one of the few remaining industries where you're completely off on your off hours. My friends who are moving up the corporate ladder are answering emails at 11PM and as salaried employees get nothing for working extra hours.

Also, in many states you work at the pleasure of the company. They can decide to let you go for any reason with just two weeks severance and no recourse.