Pilot shortage: AA cancelled 100's of flights
06-23-2021 | 07:39 AM
#91
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
Why is this being billed as a negative. They parked 3 fleet types. Have the 737 sims just been sitting idle? They announced code shares with Alaska and Jet Blue and everyone was worried they were outsourcing AA jobs. Now AA has more demand than they can accommodate.
Are JetBlue and Alaska booking more emplanements causing supply shortages? Did AA revenue mgmt intentionally build a more robust schedule for June get scared and drop prices? Has AA market share against Delta and United gone up 3% before 1% cancelations?
Seems very reasonable they held off on training the junior pilots because it was unclear if they would be needed past Cares3 expiring.
Did Max coming back add to sim demand?
Seems like a misplaced frustration to say AA just sat on its rear end and is now kicking the cash out the door because it’s too difficult to pick it up.
Are JetBlue and Alaska booking more emplanements causing supply shortages? Did AA revenue mgmt intentionally build a more robust schedule for June get scared and drop prices? Has AA market share against Delta and United gone up 3% before 1% cancelations?
Seems very reasonable they held off on training the junior pilots because it was unclear if they would be needed past Cares3 expiring.
Did Max coming back add to sim demand?
Seems like a misplaced frustration to say AA just sat on its rear end and is now kicking the cash out the door because it’s too difficult to pick it up.
Excess bookings due to cheaper airfare than the market demands is a failure, considering there is an entire section of our company devoted to analyzing ticket prices. (but even for that point, you'd have to disregard that airfare was rising for the summer starting months ago). Why are we the only ones in the news for mass cancellations - could it be because we were the only ones who were not prepared? Could being the only major who furloughed play a part?
Just to be clear, you're saying that AA was right in holding off on training pilots so they wouldn't waste money... just in case they had to be the only major airline to furlough ~again~ during the recovery portion of the pandemic? Even in light of the fact that we are cancelling dozens of flights daily in excess of a month due to lack of pilots - even though we have hundreds of pilots who have been sitting home for 8 months on the government's dime?
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it seems like you're defending their actions even though they went the opposite direction of industry peers. We are now suffering due to those decisions, while our peers are now. I guess I'm just interested in how you can possibly see any positives here
06-23-2021 | 07:54 AM
#92
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 303
Likes: 1
Why is this being billed as a negative. They parked 3 fleet types. Have the 737 sims just been sitting idle? They announced code shares with Alaska and Jet Blue and everyone was worried they were outsourcing AA jobs. Now AA has more demand than they can accommodate.
Are JetBlue and Alaska booking more emplanements causing supply shortages? Did AA revenue mgmt intentionally build a more robust schedule for June get scared and drop prices? Has AA market share against Delta and United gone up 3% before 1% cancelations?
Seems very reasonable they held off on training the junior pilots because it was unclear if they would be needed past Cares3 expiring.
Did Max coming back add to sim demand?
Seems like a misplaced frustration to say AA just sat on its rear end and is now kicking the cash out the door because it’s too difficult to pick it up.
Are JetBlue and Alaska booking more emplanements causing supply shortages? Did AA revenue mgmt intentionally build a more robust schedule for June get scared and drop prices? Has AA market share against Delta and United gone up 3% before 1% cancelations?
Seems very reasonable they held off on training the junior pilots because it was unclear if they would be needed past Cares3 expiring.
Did Max coming back add to sim demand?
Seems like a misplaced frustration to say AA just sat on its rear end and is now kicking the cash out the door because it’s too difficult to pick it up.
AA and Doug Parker continue kicking cash out the door. The biggest kick of cash was when genius Parker was snapping up billions of stock at 45 bucks a share and publicly stating the airline would never be unprofitable again. Until he gets launched, it's just going to be a continued slide to ever new lows of revenue and performance metrics.
06-23-2021 | 08:08 AM
#93
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,825
Likes: 227
Anyway….
”As a result, whenever there was a recovery, American could never participate in it. It structurally surrendered an advantaged position to its competitors. Because it was just so hell-bent on cost take-out.”
“The airline that figures out a way to not furlough people, particularly pilots, ....they are going to come out of this on top.”
All of this from our chief revenue officer Vasa Raja last year. So they predicted how to “win the recovery” (their words), yet did the exact opposite of what they said we needed to do. Flash forward to present day, where we are cancelling 50-80 of our flights daily through at least the middle of July. That’s roughly 1% of our operation.
Will this bring about any changes in the way this dumpster fire is run? We took government cash, paid pilots to sit home and didn’t train anyone until it was too late. Imagine doing your job as poorly as management does theirs. We’d be auguring planes in, and the training department would get flushed instantly.
”As a result, whenever there was a recovery, American could never participate in it. It structurally surrendered an advantaged position to its competitors. Because it was just so hell-bent on cost take-out.”
“The airline that figures out a way to not furlough people, particularly pilots, ....they are going to come out of this on top.”
All of this from our chief revenue officer Vasa Raja last year. So they predicted how to “win the recovery” (their words), yet did the exact opposite of what they said we needed to do. Flash forward to present day, where we are cancelling 50-80 of our flights daily through at least the middle of July. That’s roughly 1% of our operation.
Will this bring about any changes in the way this dumpster fire is run? We took government cash, paid pilots to sit home and didn’t train anyone until it was too late. Imagine doing your job as poorly as management does theirs. We’d be auguring planes in, and the training department would get flushed instantly.
Sounds like it's time for some executive bonuses to get paid out.
06-23-2021 | 09:29 AM
#95
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2016
Posts: 774
Likes: 0
Why is it being billed as negative? Because they said they saw the way to turn this black swan event into a win. They laid out how they planned to capitalize on opportunities on the back side of the pandemic. They then turned around and did the exact opposite of the plan they very publicly laid out. How can you bill that as anything but negative?
Excess bookings due to cheaper airfare than the market demands is a failure, considering there is an entire section of our company devoted to analyzing ticket prices. (but even for that point, you'd have to disregard that airfare was rising for the summer starting months ago). Why are we the only ones in the news for mass cancellations - could it be because we were the only ones who were not prepared? Could being the only major who furloughed play a part?
Just to be clear, you're saying that AA was right in holding off on training pilots so they wouldn't waste money... just in case they had to be the only major airline to furlough ~again~ during the recovery portion of the pandemic? Even in light of the fact that we are cancelling dozens of flights daily in excess of a month due to lack of pilots - even though we have hundreds of pilots who have been sitting home for 8 months on the government's dime?
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it seems like you're defending their actions even though they went the opposite direction of industry peers. We are now suffering due to those decisions, while our peers are now. I guess I'm just interested in how you can possibly see any positives here
Excess bookings due to cheaper airfare than the market demands is a failure, considering there is an entire section of our company devoted to analyzing ticket prices. (but even for that point, you'd have to disregard that airfare was rising for the summer starting months ago). Why are we the only ones in the news for mass cancellations - could it be because we were the only ones who were not prepared? Could being the only major who furloughed play a part?
Just to be clear, you're saying that AA was right in holding off on training pilots so they wouldn't waste money... just in case they had to be the only major airline to furlough ~again~ during the recovery portion of the pandemic? Even in light of the fact that we are cancelling dozens of flights daily in excess of a month due to lack of pilots - even though we have hundreds of pilots who have been sitting home for 8 months on the government's dime?
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it seems like you're defending their actions even though they went the opposite direction of industry peers. We are now suffering due to those decisions, while our peers are now. I guess I'm just interested in how you can possibly see any positives here
If you buy stock and it goes up, it’s a negative because you should have bought more?
They built June block hours in April, underestimated, and have upguaged and added segments until they discovered a supply chain bottle neck.
If they are building August block hours right now they are speculating demand. Will demand curve accelerate or shallow out. Do you have facts that show under estimating is more costly than overestimating.
Did they call and say they thought they were being aggressive building June block hours because everyone was saying in April the CDC jumped the gun and was irresponsible for saying you could ditch the mask indoors.
They had 45B is gross revenue in 2019, 17B in 2020. Its reasonably difficult to guess where 2021 revenue will be.
Last edited by Happyflyer; 06-23-2021 at 09:42 AM.
06-23-2021 | 10:10 AM
#96
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,285
Likes: 0
From: 175 CA
Exactly…or the guy here who apparently thought he was going to be idolized by everyone he met as he sauntered his way, draped in a bomber jacket and Aviators, to the Crown Plaza from his “cushy” wide body job. I have never run into any pilot who has worked outside of aviation and made the switch who has regretted it or thought it was a grueling job.
I left a mid low 6 figure position to do this at 47. Was it crazy? Maybe/probably…. But my wife and family supported it and I have never looked back. I made great money but the job stress was high and hours long. I see my family more now. I seem to have hit a sweet spot and have been lucky though. In three years never sat reserve involuntarily, never been JM’d or extended and I’m now headed to a major. So while I seem to have been quite lucky, I do enjoy most trips and the flying we do. YMMV.
Am I passionate about flying? Not really; but if I have to work and am not going to win the lottery, then I can’t imagine doing anything else.
I left a mid low 6 figure position to do this at 47. Was it crazy? Maybe/probably…. But my wife and family supported it and I have never looked back. I made great money but the job stress was high and hours long. I see my family more now. I seem to have hit a sweet spot and have been lucky though. In three years never sat reserve involuntarily, never been JM’d or extended and I’m now headed to a major. So while I seem to have been quite lucky, I do enjoy most trips and the flying we do. YMMV.
Am I passionate about flying? Not really; but if I have to work and am not going to win the lottery, then I can’t imagine doing anything else.
A lot of guys are on their 2nd or 3rd regional, making 80k in the left seat to have insane levels of responsibly, commuting to reserve, junior manned, apps out everywhere and no calls.
I want to puke every time I hear some bright eye'd RJ FO that says 'WHEN I'm at a major" as if it's a given.
Nothing is a given in this industry. Some people are lucky, a lot aren't.
06-23-2021 | 11:25 AM
#97
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,318
Likes: 0
Anyway….
”As a result, whenever there was a recovery, American could never participate in it. It structurally surrendered an advantaged position to its competitors. Because it was just so hell-bent on cost take-out.”
“The airline that figures out a way to not furlough people, particularly pilots, ....they are going to come out of this on top.”
All of this from our chief revenue officer Vasa Raja last year. So they predicted how to “win the recovery” (their words), yet did the exact opposite of what they said we needed to do. Flash forward to present day, where we are cancelling 50-80 of our flights daily through at least the middle of July. That’s roughly 1% of our operation.
Will this bring about any changes in the way this dumpster fire is run? We took government cash, paid pilots to sit home and didn’t train anyone until it was too late. Imagine doing your job as poorly as management does theirs. We’d be auguring planes in, and the training department would get flushed instantly.
”As a result, whenever there was a recovery, American could never participate in it. It structurally surrendered an advantaged position to its competitors. Because it was just so hell-bent on cost take-out.”
“The airline that figures out a way to not furlough people, particularly pilots, ....they are going to come out of this on top.”
All of this from our chief revenue officer Vasa Raja last year. So they predicted how to “win the recovery” (their words), yet did the exact opposite of what they said we needed to do. Flash forward to present day, where we are cancelling 50-80 of our flights daily through at least the middle of July. That’s roughly 1% of our operation.
Will this bring about any changes in the way this dumpster fire is run? We took government cash, paid pilots to sit home and didn’t train anyone until it was too late. Imagine doing your job as poorly as management does theirs. We’d be auguring planes in, and the training department would get flushed instantly.
06-23-2021 | 11:32 AM
#98
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 900
Likes: 0
My neighbor is a bond trader and makes 500k+ a year. Most finance and medical professionals make more than 200k. They also sleep in their own bed every night.
Once the novelty wears off, you’ll realize how much life leaves you behind while you hang out in the double tree with strangers you’ll never see ever again. Kids grow old, spouses leave, family members die.
All to aimlessly bounce around the country as a glorified truck driver.
Once the novelty wears off, you’ll realize how much life leaves you behind while you hang out in the double tree with strangers you’ll never see ever again. Kids grow old, spouses leave, family members die.
All to aimlessly bounce around the country as a glorified truck driver.
Last edited by TankerDriver; 06-23-2021 at 11:44 AM.
06-23-2021 | 12:02 PM
#99
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 116
Likes: 0
I don’t think its a positive, but I think the only real way to criticize is sim utilization if the choke point is pilots. Speculating demand and missing by 1-3% is not a failure in my opinion.
If you buy stock and it goes up, it’s a negative because you should have bought more?
They built June block hours in April, underestimated, and have upguaged and added segments until they discovered a supply chain bottle neck.
If they are building August block hours right now they are speculating demand. Will demand curve accelerate or shallow out. Do you have facts that show under estimating is more costly than overestimating.
Did they call and say they thought they were being aggressive building June block hours because everyone was saying in April the CDC jumped the gun and was irresponsible for saying you could ditch the mask indoors.
They had 45B is gross revenue in 2019, 17B in 2020. Its reasonably difficult to guess where 2021 revenue will be.
If you buy stock and it goes up, it’s a negative because you should have bought more?
They built June block hours in April, underestimated, and have upguaged and added segments until they discovered a supply chain bottle neck.
If they are building August block hours right now they are speculating demand. Will demand curve accelerate or shallow out. Do you have facts that show under estimating is more costly than overestimating.
Did they call and say they thought they were being aggressive building June block hours because everyone was saying in April the CDC jumped the gun and was irresponsible for saying you could ditch the mask indoors.
They had 45B is gross revenue in 2019, 17B in 2020. Its reasonably difficult to guess where 2021 revenue will be.
06-23-2021 | 12:05 PM
#100
Eating A Gruben
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
I don’t think its a positive, but I think the only real way to criticize is sim utilization if the choke point is pilots. Speculating demand and missing by 1-3% is not a failure in my opinion.
If you buy stock and it goes up, it’s a negative because you should have bought more?
They built June block hours in April, underestimated, and have upguaged and added segments until they discovered a supply chain bottle neck.
If they are building August block hours right now they are speculating demand. Will demand curve accelerate or shallow out. Do you have facts that show under estimating is more costly than overestimating.
Did they call and say they thought they were being aggressive building June block hours because everyone was saying in April the CDC jumped the gun and was irresponsible for saying you could ditch the mask indoors.
They had 45B is gross revenue in 2019, 17B in 2020. Its reasonably difficult to guess where 2021 revenue will be.
If you buy stock and it goes up, it’s a negative because you should have bought more?
They built June block hours in April, underestimated, and have upguaged and added segments until they discovered a supply chain bottle neck.
If they are building August block hours right now they are speculating demand. Will demand curve accelerate or shallow out. Do you have facts that show under estimating is more costly than overestimating.
Did they call and say they thought they were being aggressive building June block hours because everyone was saying in April the CDC jumped the gun and was irresponsible for saying you could ditch the mask indoors.
They had 45B is gross revenue in 2019, 17B in 2020. Its reasonably difficult to guess where 2021 revenue will be.
A direct quote from one of the people leading the company. They furloughed anyway because, right wrong or indifferent, APA wouldn't take their bait. In other words, they knew that furloughing pilots was going to bad for the company in the long run. They did it anyway. You can justify pilots being kicked to the street all you want, it was a bad idea and they knew it. The chickens have come home to roost.
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