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AA Seniority Calculator

Old 06-20-2022 | 10:50 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by AAL24
do you believe that Al? 10 years to WB CA? A newhire would need appx 11,000 pilots to retire to hold a WB CA position. Do we have 11k retirements in 10 years? That also assumes we don’t park the 777 fleet over the next decade. I think 20-25 years is best case scenario.
You are correct based on a static model for sure. I was curious and ran some numbers based on a static model of ~3500 to hold WB CA.

For a 2014 hire 15 years
Oct 2021 hire 17 years
May 2022 hire 20 years (we hired a **** ton between the former and latter)

Maybe I’m wrong, I actually expected the number to drop for 2021 hires below that of 2014 hires. Obviously if we actually get more widebodies that would change all of this, also bidding behavior could change this as well as we have a ton of senior WB FO’s, not sure if the younger generation will bid like that or not.
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Old 06-20-2022 | 04:10 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by AAL24
do you believe that Al? 10 years to WB CA? A newhire would need appx 11,000 pilots to retire to hold a WB CA position. Do we have 11k retirements in 10 years? That also assumes we don’t park the 777 fleet over the next decade. I think 20-25 years is best case scenario.
I believe everything the company tells me.
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Old 06-20-2022 | 06:11 PM
  #33  
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From: Assistant (to the) Regional Captain
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Originally Posted by Margaritaville
Here's the problem with all these seniority calculators that people don't understand. They're dumb technology. They only account for age of pilots and current fleet number as of the day they are used. Sure at the standard lapse rate of pilots making it to 65 and the current fleet, someone in their 40s may only make it to 3500-4500 on a list of 14000-ish (top 25%), but what if I told you that by the time they get there there will be over 20,000 pilots on that list (top 15%) and hundreds more aircraft than today? Also many pilots aren't going to make it to mandatory retirement age whatever that ends up being, none of which is accounted for.
Yeah the calculator is way off. It's not usable. Don't waste your money like I did.
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Old 06-20-2022 | 07:49 PM
  #34  
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Why would anyone think a calculator would be able to hyper-accurately predict the future by accounting for unknown variables….?
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Old 06-21-2022 | 06:25 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by AllYourBaseAreB
Why would anyone think a calculator would be able to hyper-accurately predict the future by accounting for unknown variables….?
That's what I'd like to know. Because I keep reading "Don't go to ABC air line because you'll only retire at Y,YYY but at XYZ airline you'll retire at X,XXX. You may as well buy a lotto ticket. The legacies are basically the same once you get behind the door. Go to the one that has a base where you want to live and be done with it. Trying to game the system to get a few numbers ahead is a waste of time. Take it from someone who is nearing the end of his career and endured the brunt of the Lost Decade. Your career won't turn out as you expected. Take what you can get.
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Old 06-21-2022 | 07:01 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Margaritaville
That's what I'd like to know. Because I keep reading "Don't go to ABC air line because you'll only retire at Y,YYY but at XYZ airline you'll retire at X,XXX. You may as well buy a lotto ticket. The legacies are basically the same once you get behind the door. Go to the one that has a base where you want to live and be done with it. Trying to game the system to get a few numbers ahead is a waste of time. Take it from someone who is nearing the end of his career and endured the brunt of the Lost Decade. Your career won't turn out as you expected. Take what you can get.
How many people younger than you is the important part and really the only relevant metric. The part that is worthless is "I can hold CA on XXX aircraft in XXXX". Too many outside variables will change that. However one thing that will never change is the amount of people hired before you that are younger than you.
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Old 06-21-2022 | 07:03 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by ImSoSuss
How many people younger than you is the important part and really the only relevant metric. The part that is worthless is "I can hold CA on XXX aircraft in XXXX". Too many outside variables will change that. However one thing that will never change is the amount of people hired before you that are younger than you.
That's true. Which is why everyone hired in their 40s and later need to temper their expectations. It's unlikely they will ever see WB CA. Too many younger people ahead of them. But that's okay. They can still make NB CA in just a few years and make way more than wherever they came from (LCC/regional).
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Old 06-21-2022 | 07:08 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Margaritaville
That's true. Which is why everyone hired in their 40s and later need to temper their expectations. It's unlikely they will ever see WB CA. Too many younger people ahead of them. But that's okay. They can still make NB CA in just a few years and make way more than wherever they came from (LCC/regional).
If AA international ever expands over current levels, which after this recovery is certainly not out of the question, someone in their 40s right now can certainly hold WB CA before they retire.
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Old 06-21-2022 | 07:15 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Margaritaville
The legacies are basically the same once you get behind the door.

That might have been the case 30 years ago, definitely not today.
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Old 06-21-2022 | 07:26 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by AAL24
That might have been the case 30 years ago, definitely not today.
Expand on this thought? More than a sound bite?
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