2025 Class Drops
04-22-2025 | 02:25 PM
#422
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 320
Likes: 8
04-22-2025 | 02:45 PM
#423
On Reserve
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 19
Likes: 0
04-23-2025 | 07:13 AM
#425
Banned
Joined: Mar 2021
Posts: 2,847
Likes: 212
This is the correct answer, anything else is just conjecture or hearsay. The company very rarely releases anything official on this. Hoping at least this means they still plan on running a few classes this summer, otherwise overall hiring numbers for this year will be way down then what was originally projected.
04-23-2025 | 07:55 AM
#426
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,028
Likes: 246
From: A320 FO
This is the correct answer, anything else is just conjecture or hearsay. The company very rarely releases anything official on this. Hoping at least this means they still plan on running a few classes this summer, otherwise overall hiring numbers for this year will be way down then what was originally projected.
The other wildcard is deliveries. I expect Max and 787 deliveries to accelerate and 321NEOs to decelerate, at least until some trade deals are reached. It would be nice to grab a few China rejected 777-300ERs but that's mostly wishful thinking on my part.
If they don't trim the schedule in the fall and especially if they keep taking delivery of airplanes without retiring older ones then they either hire or we can print money with premium.
04-23-2025 | 07:58 AM
#427
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2022
Posts: 572
Likes: 147
Hopefully we'll get a little color during SotA this week and during the earnings call. I imagine it will be near the end of summer though before they will decide on the fall schedule based on forward bookings. I can't see forward bookings but I can see load factors and so far there is no cause for alarm.
04-23-2025 | 09:41 AM
#428
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 4,065
Likes: 246
Hopefully we'll get a little color during SotA this week and during the earnings call. I imagine it will be near the end of summer though before they will decide on the fall schedule based on forward bookings. I can't see forward bookings but I can see load factors and so far there is no cause for alarm.
The other wildcard is deliveries. I expect Max and 787 deliveries to accelerate and 321NEOs to decelerate, at least until some trade deals are reached. It would be nice to grab a few China rejected 777-300ERs but that's mostly wishful thinking on my part.
If they don't trim the schedule in the fall and especially if they keep taking delivery of airplanes without retiring older ones then they either hire or we can print money with premium.
The other wildcard is deliveries. I expect Max and 787 deliveries to accelerate and 321NEOs to decelerate, at least until some trade deals are reached. It would be nice to grab a few China rejected 777-300ERs but that's mostly wishful thinking on my part.
If they don't trim the schedule in the fall and especially if they keep taking delivery of airplanes without retiring older ones then they either hire or we can print money with premium.
I think we'll be business as usual over the summer (hopefully!).
Once that happens the entire US population will be calling for the POTUS's head. The way to do this was a 10 year plan, not a two week thing everyone knows was 100% a bluff.
04-23-2025 | 11:44 AM
#429
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,028
Likes: 246
From: A320 FO
Break even load factors are a closely guarded secret. Having more big seats up front is helpful to margins if you can sell them. I like the plan of adding a row to the 319s and 320s. I don't know how many will be ready by the end of summer.
Too many factors out of our control and little visibility into what's happening behind the scenes. Try to top off the furlough fund if in the bottom 20% and make sure your monthly expenses can be adjusted down if line values drop.
04-23-2025 | 11:51 AM
#430
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 320
Likes: 8
I'm hoping our yield management team is smart enough not to let the fares go to $0 just to keep the seats full. Otherwise you are correct and the only tell that all is not well will be negative earnings and dramatic schedule reductions to try to balance supply. There's also 100+ RJs coming to down gauge softening markets.
Break even load factors are a closely guarded secret. Having more big seats up front is helpful to margins if you can sell them. I like the plan of adding a row to the 319s and 320s. I don't know how many will be ready by the end of summer.
Too many factors out of our control and little visibility into what's happening behind the scenes. Try to top off the furlough fund if in the bottom 20% and make sure your monthly expenses can be adjusted down if line values drop.
Break even load factors are a closely guarded secret. Having more big seats up front is helpful to margins if you can sell them. I like the plan of adding a row to the 319s and 320s. I don't know how many will be ready by the end of summer.
Too many factors out of our control and little visibility into what's happening behind the scenes. Try to top off the furlough fund if in the bottom 20% and make sure your monthly expenses can be adjusted down if line values drop.
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