Plan for the 11 787p's?
07-08-2025 | 10:54 AM
#71
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Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 587
Likes: 53
From: 757/767
Europe - UAL is operating 760 weekly flights to 40+ destinations
Europe - Delta is operating 700 weekly flights with 33 destinations.
Europe - AA is operating 490 weekly flights with 20 destinations.
Asia - UAL 238 weekly mainline flights....wow
Asia - Dal operates 70-80 weekly flights.
Asia - AA operates 42 weekly flights.
South America - Delta - 45 weekly flights
South America - AA - 55-70 weekly flights
Africa/Middle East - DAL 22 weekly flights
Africa/Middle East - AA 7 weekly flights
Last edited by AAL24; 07-08-2025 at 11:05 AM.
07-08-2025 | 10:59 AM
#72
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Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 587
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From: 757/767
This is the problem here and it gets me, the general apathy at this place. If I have to hear "good news those guys are retiring soon" one more time.. when it isn't just the 60+ crowd with that attitude. I believed that statement at first, but I'm seeing a fairly good number of folks, even some with 30+ years here to go adopting it.
I also get the "show up, do work, go home, collect paycheck" mentality, but these same guys that say that don't realize or care that we can actually somewhat influence how management runs the company by what we negotiate in our contract.
I also get the "show up, do work, go home, collect paycheck" mentality, but these same guys that say that don't realize or care that we can actually somewhat influence how management runs the company by what we negotiate in our contract.
Yeah it's frustrating. I don't know if it's just resignation or what. A concerted effort to demonstrate how far behind we are might help. Pilots tend to get fired up when they think they're getting screwed. I think there's a serious lack of awareness. Ask the next 10 pilots you fly with to explain our International scope clause. I would be surprised if more than 2 could even summarize it accurately.
07-08-2025 | 08:59 PM
#73
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Joined: Apr 2023
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There's probably no outrage because we've collectively given up on International scope. Most just show up for work, maximize their paycheck, and go home. I don't blame them. I think our last good chance at fixing INTL scope was the ALPA card drive. APA has demonstrated over the last 20 years that they're just not up to the task. There was an effective anti-ALPA campaign assisted by general apathy. Arguments ranging from "ALPA screwed me 30 years ago" to "it will just be the same guys."
Delta spent a lot of negotiating capital obtaining a "global scope" which forces international growth on the Delta side when their Joint Venture partners add new flying. I have no clue what UAL has in that department but I'm guessing it's something similar.
Here's the AA Joint Venture clause:
Joint Ventures
1. The parties agree to work toward a fair allocation of flying for the Company in Joint Business
Agreements ("JBAs"). The Association has the right to review JBAs and any material
changes going forward. During the parties' Quarterly Scope meetings, the Company will
discuss and receive input from the Association regarding current and anticipated JBAs.
Our international scope is just a formula which looks at international "baseline hours." Effectively AA is required to maintain 90% of the previous year's total International block hours. There are penalties and remedies if they fall below the 90% or 80% threshold. There is zero mechanism for capturing growth flying and no requirement (as far as I can tell) for certain aircraft to perform this flying. It could be done by 321XLRs and remain in compliance.
The scenario I would be worried about if I was planning on a Group 4 CA slot in the next 10 years is the parking of the 772s. I believe we have about 50 321XLRs on order and 47 772s that are supposed to be retired starting in the 2030-2035 timeframe. That's 1,400 Group IV jobs at risk as early as 2030. We have to consider the fact that Isom has delayed our existing order of 787s multiple times because AA struggles to make money internationally. I'm wondering how they will bring on 50 321XLRs plus roughly 26 more 787-9P orders plus a large 772 replacement order of 50 Group IV aircraft. They also have to square this with their number 1 priority, repairing the balance sheet. If I was going to bet money I would guess he will just go with our eventual fleet of +-90 787s and 50 321XLRs with our JV partners operating everything else. Our international flying hours will remain consistent but there's a good chance our total Group IV jobs could be lower in 10 years. The XLRs could service most of S. America, much of Western Europe and the 787s could cover LHR, HND, SYD, etc. Alaska could pick up the slack to the Pacific along with JAL and QA. BA could continue to do the heavy lifting from LHR. I tend to be glass half empty with AA so hopefully I'm dead wrong with this forecast. If we don't address INTL scope with our next contract then we deserve whatever we get.
Delta spent a lot of negotiating capital obtaining a "global scope" which forces international growth on the Delta side when their Joint Venture partners add new flying. I have no clue what UAL has in that department but I'm guessing it's something similar.
Here's the AA Joint Venture clause:
Joint Ventures
1. The parties agree to work toward a fair allocation of flying for the Company in Joint Business
Agreements ("JBAs"). The Association has the right to review JBAs and any material
changes going forward. During the parties' Quarterly Scope meetings, the Company will
discuss and receive input from the Association regarding current and anticipated JBAs.
Our international scope is just a formula which looks at international "baseline hours." Effectively AA is required to maintain 90% of the previous year's total International block hours. There are penalties and remedies if they fall below the 90% or 80% threshold. There is zero mechanism for capturing growth flying and no requirement (as far as I can tell) for certain aircraft to perform this flying. It could be done by 321XLRs and remain in compliance.
The scenario I would be worried about if I was planning on a Group 4 CA slot in the next 10 years is the parking of the 772s. I believe we have about 50 321XLRs on order and 47 772s that are supposed to be retired starting in the 2030-2035 timeframe. That's 1,400 Group IV jobs at risk as early as 2030. We have to consider the fact that Isom has delayed our existing order of 787s multiple times because AA struggles to make money internationally. I'm wondering how they will bring on 50 321XLRs plus roughly 26 more 787-9P orders plus a large 772 replacement order of 50 Group IV aircraft. They also have to square this with their number 1 priority, repairing the balance sheet. If I was going to bet money I would guess he will just go with our eventual fleet of +-90 787s and 50 321XLRs with our JV partners operating everything else. Our international flying hours will remain consistent but there's a good chance our total Group IV jobs could be lower in 10 years. The XLRs could service most of S. America, much of Western Europe and the 787s could cover LHR, HND, SYD, etc. Alaska could pick up the slack to the Pacific along with JAL and QA. BA could continue to do the heavy lifting from LHR. I tend to be glass half empty with AA so hopefully I'm dead wrong with this forecast. If we don't address INTL scope with our next contract then we deserve whatever we get.
https://d2r1lrrqctgamh.cloudfront.ne...A/NN-23-03.pdf
07-09-2025 | 08:16 AM
#75
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Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 587
Likes: 53
From: 757/767
South America
AA: 55-70 flights per week
UAL : 56 flights per week
DAL: 45 flights per week
Europe
UAL: 760 flights per week
DAL: 700 flights per week
AA: 490 flights per week
Asia
UAL: 238 flights per week
DAL: 70-80 flights per week
AA: 42 flights per week
Africa/Middle East
UAL: 27 flights per week
DAL: 22 flights per week
AA: 7 flights per week
Total international flights per week to the above arenas for July 2025.
UAL: 1081
DAL: 837-847
AA: 594-609
07-09-2025 | 08:33 AM
#76
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Much of that is due to AA's rapid aircraft parking. The figures would likely be different if the 330s and the 757/767 fleet hadn't been parked, and the 787 deliveries hadn't been delayed. Those numbers will look much different in 10 years when AA will have more widebodies than DAL and the 50 xlrs.
07-09-2025 | 08:48 AM
#78
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07-09-2025 | 08:56 AM
#79
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Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 587
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From: 757/767
07-09-2025 | 09:17 AM
#80
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Yes or at the very least a 1 for 1 replacement.
They are investing money in the 777s to keep them going longer and the rest of the 787s will all be here in within the next 5 years. You think they will shrink the fleet in 10 years when between now and then they will have to find flying for the planes we have, the ones they are getting and the 777s they are keeping? That would be growth and then contraction if they shrunk the large WB fleet in 10 years.
They are investing money in the 777s to keep them going longer and the rest of the 787s will all be here in within the next 5 years. You think they will shrink the fleet in 10 years when between now and then they will have to find flying for the planes we have, the ones they are getting and the 777s they are keeping? That would be growth and then contraction if they shrunk the large WB fleet in 10 years.
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