American interviews and class dates

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02-06-2014 | 10:30 AM

#741

eaglefly

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Sliceback

LAX or ORD? Hard to predict. Current bottom guy is approx. 10000. Bottom ORD is 9600. LAX is 9000.

So you could think "I'm getting ORD quickly". But ORD has been stagnant and when the door shuts at stagnant bases the list can freeze for years. The huge unknown is will additional flying come into the base? That's always an opportunity to get into a base. Example - years ago BOS was super senior. Then it expanded and became junior during the expansion phase. The door shut and it became more senior as flying was reduced.

LAX? Senior. 777 is now the most senior bid status in the company. Starting AB flying in LAX opened the door for junior guys to bid in. Will it stay open? Or will 767D displacements to the AB prevent junior guys from bidding in?

And everyone sent to MIA/LGA doesn't want to stay there. Probably 2/3's want out. So they've got their bids in for ORD/DFW/LAX/DCA/BOS. Percentages would indicate that the majority are trying to get to LAX/ORD/DFW.

IMO? Without expansion every slot taken reduces the odds of the next guy to get the base. Where that line is, IMO, is almost impossible to predict. Six months ago no one expected DFW to be open to new hires. Last class had everyone sent to DFW. Probably a one time event due to Supp CC and STL reduction. We were surprised how quickly junior recallees got ORD.

LAX may see expansion if the rumblings prove to be true, so that may become a better likelihood for those with surfing aspirations. ORD on the other hand is slated to see the loss of the S80 to DFW and the drastic trimming of 75/76 to MIA with a lot of those pilots displacing into the 737 there especially. A lot of that flying each will be replaced with more 737 and 777/787 and retirements should ensure some movement, but it has more likelihood of stagnation or at least constipation. I think Parker will target his competitive efforts more at LAX then ORD. Likewise LGA will soon have no S80 767 flying and many of those pilots will likely displace locally vs. going elsewhere.

02-06-2014 | 10:51 AM

#742

workingforfree

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From: Cap'n

#2 is correct.

02-06-2014 | 11:05 AM

#743

aa73

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 70Espada

Lucky bugger. I'm going to take a wild guess and say he knew someone. The only case i've ever known of no PIC getting hired was pre 9/11 AWA and check airman's son post 9/11.

It happens occasionally... All about who ya know. I snuck in with no turbine PIC and no ATP due to a chance phone conversation with Cecil. But then again, back then you didn't need turbine PIC or ATP. Yeah I was dang lucky and not a day goes by that I don't count my blessings!

02-06-2014 | 11:19 AM

#744

mrvmo

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Things do not sound so good for ORD....is there a chance of the domicile closing down, or just infinite stagnation there?

02-06-2014 | 11:41 AM

#745

Sliceback

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From: Window seat

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrvmo

Things do not sound so good for ORD....is there a chance of the domicile closing down, or just infinite stagnation there?

ORD plans are unknown. But AAL(AA+US) is a significant player in ORD. It just depends on what the long term plans are.

Infinite stagnation? Again, unknown. Recent recallees got ORD fairly quickly which was, IMO, unexpected. Shuffling of flying at the top (DFW/LAX 777 increases) trickles down to other bases(MIA/JFK 777 guys go to DFW, some MIA/DFW 777 guys go to LAX, etc. Those vacancies trigger 767 movement) How that trickles down to the bottom of the list is impossible to predict.

Funny stuff going on. Last job run(April) had the junior most CA upgrades in LAX. Anyone predict that? No. ORD and LAX CA upgrades junior to LGA? And MIA having none? No one predicted any of it. Will next month be the same or back to more typical job runs? No one knows.

My $.02 - bases with positive expectations - MIA, LAX, DFW.
Unknowns but generally positive expectations - CLT, PHL, DCA(?).
Unknown expectations - PHX, ORD, DCA(slot loss impact?), BOS, JFK.

02-06-2014 | 12:05 PM

#746

eaglefly

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mrvmo

Things do not sound so good for ORD....is there a chance of the domicile closing down, or just infinite stagnation there?

I think the best bet is it will be about what it is now, just morphing to E-175 (Eagle) and 737 for domestic (especially West coast and some S80 routes) and 777/787 (and a little 737) for international. The E-175's will most likely capture some of the S80 flying too and more of the CRJ/EMB RJ markets. The recent S80 junior guys were former flows who were based there with Eagle and slipped in during frozen bid windows (new hires get crack at certain bid positions because class award process started and completed before present system equipment bid run closed for regular pilots) or were recent displacees from LGA S80. As the S80 shrinks there, unless stand-in-steads more senior displace to ORD 737, 767 OR 777 or elsewhere in the system, then these pilots will be displaced without the seniority to hold ORD. ORD will probably be the hardest to predict about getting to for new hires in the future.

Just my .02..........

02-06-2014 | 12:21 PM

#747

Sliceback

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From: Window seat

You're assuming S80 shrinkage isn't replaced by other n/b flying. If it is replaced the displacing S80 pilots will bid the replacement n/b(guessing it will be 737).

02-06-2014 | 01:13 PM

#748

eaglefly

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Sliceback

You're assuming S80 shrinkage isn't replaced by other n/b flying. If it is replaced the displacing S80 pilots will bid the replacement n/b(guessing it will be 737).

I included that in the first "morph" sentence, but perhaps it wasn't clear enough. I think some of the S80 flying will go to E-175's and more of it will go to the 737, but since some of that will go to E-175's there will be less overall narrow body slots in ORD. That will take time and there will be more retirements mitigating a lot of that displacement. Then again, 767 (757) flying drawing down toward MIA could then mitigate the retirements though. I think it all depends on timing with likely an ebb and flow over the next several years.