On the other hand, one could easily remain low on the list at Atlas with less than 500 retirements in the next 18 years! The legacies are each retiring more than that nearly EVERY YEAR during the same time frame!

Unless there is significant growth or a mass exodus, eight year upgrades are not on the horizon for the junior guys, more like 15+!!!

 

As they are passenger planes, I would be suprised if this has anything to do with Atlas. Why wouldn't Etihad pilots fly these?

 

Well, they need to hire for 5 more 777s with this announcement. And they also operate 3 777Fs...and are already a customer of ours. You've heard the rumors of the new fleet type, right? How do you quickly solve a pilot manning shortfall with the stroke of a pen? What company seems to like CMI agreements? Yeah, maybe you're right. This can't possibly have anything to do with Atlas. Disregard.

 

They have 6 months before the planes show. Plenty of time to hire. And they have have a 777 training program in place. We'd have to get a training program approved (the FAA is closed this week), create an initial cadre of instructors and CA and then gen up 25 or 30 crews. I don't see it happening.

 

500 pilots is something above 40% of the pilot group...a VERY high percentage.

Atlas has 7? planes flying passengers, and has been flying passengers for over 3 years, so flying -777 pax makes sense. My next rotation is all pax flying.

 

A VERY high percentage? In that same time, DAL and UAL are retiring 75% and AA 90%!

Let's see, one could be at 60% of 1,000 or so or...10-25% of ten times that. Which one would be a Captain's seat?

Not saying that is the end all, be all, but many on here have discussed the upgrade time vs. the majors. For new hires, upgrades, and the pay, just isn't going to happen for a very long time.

 

You and I both know there's no way you could know that. A few years ago I got hired on with a carrier boasting 24 month upgrades. A year later I was on the street.

If your company has quick upgrades when you're hired, there's a strong chance you already missed the boat. I see longer upgrades at a company with strong growth potential as a good thing. Buy low, sell high, etc.

 

Eighteen years is an impossible length of time to predict anything in the airline industry. While it is theoretically possible that what you say may come true (assuming the numbers are correct) huge changes are bound to happen to airlines that will totally change your statement.

The retirement age may change. The economy will get better/worse. Mergers will happen. Bankruptcies will happen. Upstarts will appear. The list goes on.

For the near future, retirements probably matter less than fleet growth at Atlas. Ten new planes at AA is 1% whereas the same ten planes at Atlas would be a 20% increase in our fleet. That kind of growth in the next year or two is fairly feasible here and not at the mega carriers.

That said, my crystal ball went inop years ago so what the heck do I know for sure? What the heck do any of us know for sure? In this industry "ya rolls the dice; ya takes your chances".

8

 

Disregard my previous post.
WTFover is absolutely correct.
Everyone at Atlas seniority #800 and up should apply to AA, UA, DAL, and SWA immediately.

Thank you for your cooperation.

8

 

It might AFFECT Atlas.....