Originally Posted by DC8DRIVER

Eighteen years is an impossible length of time to predict anything in the airline industry. While it is theoretically possible that what you say may come true (assuming the numbers are correct) huge changes are bound to happen to airlines that will totally change your statement.

The retirement age may change. The economy will get better/worse. Mergers will happen. Bankruptcies will happen. Upstarts will appear. The list goes on.

For the near future, retirements probably matter less than fleet growth at Atlas. Ten new planes at AA is 1% whereas the same ten planes at Atlas would be a 20% increase in our fleet. That kind of growth in the next year or two is fairly feasible here and not at the mega carriers.

That said, my crystal ball went inop years ago so what the heck do I know for sure? What the heck do any of us know for sure? In this industry "ya rolls the dice; ya takes your chances".

8

Originally Posted by 742Dash

My understanding may be wrong, but I was told by two people who were fairly close to the process that it was a much closer call than the public face that Erickson put on implied. In any case the need to resort to Fresh-Start Accounting speaks volumes about the situation that the company was in.

Originally Posted by WTFover

I agree with everything you've said here. I am simply pointing out one piece of the puzzle in that Atlas has a much lower percentage of retirements and that has a direct impact on where one stands in seniority.

FWIW, here are the numbers:

9-12/2013 18
2014 38
2015 31
2016 29
2017 37
2018 33
2019 38
2020 33
2021 22
2022 27
2023 26
2024 19
2025 28
2026 20
2027 36
2028 25
2029 28
2030 16

I got tired of counting after that, but there are some on the list with retirement dates of 2050!

Originally Posted by JonnyKnoxville

We lose 18 a year on average to disability and we will lose a lot more pilots as everyone starts hiring. Best of luck on the next job and please keep telling everyone you fly with the grass is greener elsewhere, especially if they are senior.

Originally Posted by Twin Wasp

They have 6 months before the planes show. Plenty of time to hire. And they have have a 777 training program in place. We'd have to get a training program approved (the FAA is closed this week), create an initial cadre of instructors and CA and then gen up 25 or 30 crews. I don't see it happening.

Originally Posted by 727gm

It might AFFECT Atlas.....

Originally Posted by WTFover

On the other hand, one could easily remain low on the list at Atlas with less than 500 retirements in the next 18 years! The legacies are each retiring more than that nearly EVERY YEAR during the same time frame!

Unless there is significant growth or a mass exodus, eight year upgrades are not on the horizon for the junior guys, more like 15+!!!

Originally Posted by sandstorm

Just curious .... the Atlas profile says contractual pay raises in Sept 2013-15. Do the payrates that are currently listed reflect the Sept 2013 pay raise?

Originally Posted by C5nwhaleguy

AAAHHhh....relative seniority...u have a pilot group of 1100....vs one of 10 12 or 15,000. "Are u sure you are not a pilot"

Drunk Airline Pilot - Dean Martin - Foster Brooks - YouTube