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Old 03-22-2017, 10:14 AM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by J Dawg View Post
Atlanta might not be worried about losing Amazon volume, but they sure should be worried about losing non-Amazon volume.

Amazon might only be 4-10% of UPS's business, but area "B" alone in the photo below looks to be about the size of the SDF "Worldport". Anyone who thinks Amazon will not be going after other UPS/FedEx customers after building out all this infrastructure is in denial.

It's not denial. It's doubt in Amazon's realistic abilities to put the rest of the world out of business. As I've posted before, right now they have little competition. That is changing. Right now IIUC, Amazon isn't participating in logistics, supply chain solutions, or the whole list of other related industry segments which Purple and brown operate in. To steal that business isn't like selling shower curtain rings. The technical/ complex sales cycle is long, complicated, and expensive and they are going to have a very tough uphill battle against established and proven companies (who can also offer better pricing to keep competition at bay). As fellow airline pilots you should be looking at this with as much disdain as the ME3 / flag of convenience issues given Bezos' passion for automation and disinterest in employee welfare. But I guess a few of you opportunists stand to benefit so I can understand the excitement of it all.
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Old 03-22-2017, 10:26 AM
  #72  
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Originally Posted by FTFF View Post
It's not denial. It's doubt in Amazon's realistic abilities to put the rest of the world out of business. As I've posted before, right now they have little competition. That is changing. Right now IIUC, Amazon isn't participating in logistics, supply chain solutions, or the whole list of other related industry segments which Purple and brown operate in. To steal that business isn't like selling shower curtain rings. The technical/ complex sales cycle is long, complicated, and expensive and they are going to have a very tough uphill battle against established and proven companies (who can also offer better pricing to keep competition at bay). As fellow airline pilots you should be looking at this with as much disdain as the ME3 / flag of convenience issues given Bezos' passion for automation and disinterest in employee welfare. But I guess a few of you opportunists stand to benefit so I can understand the excitement of it all.
As a consumer, I see an opportunity for Amazon to offer shipping services that undercut both UPS and FedEx, maybe even USPS. On the consumer side of things, people will not only flock, but will demand to have the cheaper shipping choices. We've all seen what the LCC's have done to the passenger side of things. With a company the size of Amazon, you cannot ignore the gorilla in the room. At some point it will rip your face off, break your arm in half, and beat you with it.
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Old 03-22-2017, 10:54 AM
  #73  
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Even if Amazon succeeds, the questions are: will it benefit any of the ACMI pilots? Will it just be one big whipsaw? Will Amazon start their own airline and take back those planes from ATSG/Atlas leave the current ATSG/Atlas pilots at the altar?

I think the jury is still out on whether they will succeed. Just my uneducated opinion
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Old 03-22-2017, 11:53 AM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by sherpster View Post
Even if Amazon succeeds, the questions are: will it benefit any of the ACMI pilots? Will it just be one big whipsaw? Will Amazon start their own airline and take back those planes from ATSG/Atlas leave the current ATSG/Atlas pilots at the altar?

I think the jury is still out on whether they will succeed. Just my uneducated opinion
Amazon is leasing Atlas crews for 7 years (starting 2016).
Leases on B767 run 10 years.

From the proxy statement:

Overview

On May 4, 2016, our wholly owned subsidiary, Atlas Air, Inc. (“ Atlas Air ”), entered into an Air Transportation Services Agreement (the “ ATSA ”) with Amazon Fulfillment Services, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Amazon (“ AFS ”), pursuant to which AFS has committed to:

• lease 20 B767-300 converted freighter aircraft from our wholly owned subsidiary, Titan Aviation Leasing Limited—Americas, Inc. (“ Titan ”); and

• procure CMI (crew, maintenance and insurance) services from Atlas Air (or its designated affiliate air carriers) for each of the 20 B767-300 aircraft leased by Titan to AFS.

The term of the dry leases for each of the 20 B767-300s is 10 years, and the term of the CMI services arrangement for each of the 20 B767-300 series freighter aircraft is seven years (with an option to extend by AFS for a total term of 10 years) . The first aircraft is scheduled to be placed into service in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2016, with the lease and operation of the remaining 19 committed B767-300s expected to scale up to full service by the end of the fiscal year 2018.
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Old 03-22-2017, 12:06 PM
  #75  
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Originally Posted by zerozero View Post
Amazon is leasing Atlas crews for 7 years (starting 2016).
Leases on B767 run 10 years.

From the proxy statement:
The aircraft are owned by both AAWW and ATSG, not Amazon. Amazon has a deal structured to own 20% of ATSG and 30% of Atlas. The big question is whether Amazon buys the remaining portion of both companies or if they choose to dump them and start taking deliveries of new aircraft from Boeing while sunsetting the lease deals with ATSG and AAWW.

Either ATSG and AAWW will be acquired by Amazon to start Prime Air or they will just be used as the dirt bag contract carriers that they are until Amazon learns enough about the air freight business to build their own airline.
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Old 03-22-2017, 01:33 PM
  #76  
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Originally Posted by No Land 3 View Post
As a consumer, I see an opportunity for Amazon to offer shipping services that undercut both UPS and FedEx, maybe even USPS. On the consumer side of things, people will not only flock, but will demand to have the cheaper shipping choices. We've all seen what the LCC's have done to the passenger side of things. With a company the size of Amazon, you cannot ignore the gorilla in the room. At some point it will rip your face off, break your arm in half, and beat you with it.
For online retail, sure, but Amazon's competitors cannot run to Amazon to utilize their cheap shipping can they? And many folk aren't too fond of the unmarked cars and scruffy looking independant contractors showing up at their residence to deliver their Amazon packages. I wouldn't use them to send out stuff myself. For non online retail b2b, the vast majority of FX/UPS's business, cost is only one of many factors and rarely the most important. As I said in my previous post, the complex multi million dollar sales cycles for products or services are long, expensive, and even with the best sales team and best product, the customers are simply often reluctant for change. Amazon isn't using a revolutionary technology to remake the wheel like they did with retail. This is good old fashioned ego thinking it can better the market (if they even do intend to compete in logistics). And besides using uber drivers for delivery, nothing they're doing in logistics or shipping seems even remotely innovative.
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Old 03-22-2017, 01:58 PM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by zerozero View Post
Amazon is leasing Atlas crews for 7 years (starting 2016).
Leases on B767 run 10 years.

From the proxy statement:
A very important component of that 7 year CMI agreement is that it can be cancelled with 180 days notice at any time with no penalty. So while they may look like they have signed a long term operation agreement, what they've actually done is signed a long term agreement that they can get out of at any time once they have positioned however it is they want to position.

Its unknown (at least by me... someone please tell me if they know) if ATSG's contract has the same clause, as they have kept their cards much closer to their chest than Atlas has.
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Old 03-22-2017, 02:05 PM
  #78  
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Originally Posted by FTFF View Post
It's not denial. It's doubt in Amazon's realistic abilities to put the rest of the world out of business. As I've posted before, right now they have little competition. That is changing. Right now IIUC, Amazon isn't participating in logistics, supply chain solutions, or the whole list of other related industry segments which Purple and brown operate in. To steal that business isn't like selling shower curtain rings. The technical/ complex sales cycle is long, complicated, and expensive and they are going to have a very tough uphill battle against established and proven companies (who can also offer better pricing to keep competition at bay). As fellow airline pilots you should be looking at this with as much disdain as the ME3 / flag of convenience issues given Bezos' passion for automation and disinterest in employee welfare. But I guess a few of you opportunists stand to benefit so I can understand the excitement of it all.
You are going to the other extreme by stating Amazon is trying to put UPS and FX out of business. No one ever said that. But just because Amazon might not be in the logistics and SCS business today does not mean that they are not rapidly moving in that direction. Just look who they are getting in bed with (DHL, ATSG, Atlas, etc). Getting whatever expertise they need won't be hard. I'm not sure why you mention sales cycles as if to suggest Amazon can't succeed there either. Unlike UPS which only provides a service, Amazon actually sells stuff. Soon they will provide a product and a service.

Trust me, as a UPS pilot this is very concerning to me (your "opportunist" remark is misdirected) and it should be to you as well. Again, all you gotta do is look at the size of their CVG plans and it's easy to see they want to get in the logistics and shipping business beyond their own stuff. I see no reason why they won't be successful especially considering their main competition is a trucking company using 1990's internet technology riding on 110 years of momentum, a company which has a proven track record of squandering growth opportunities and little desire to grow market share and reinvest profits in the company on the same level Amazon has been doing.
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Old 03-22-2017, 02:35 PM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by woog315 View Post
A very important component of that 7 year CMI agreement is that it can be cancelled with 180 days notice at any time with no penalty. So while they may look like they have signed a long term operation agreement, what they've actually done is signed a long term agreement that they can get out of at any time once they have positioned however it is they want to position.

Its unknown (at least by me... someone please tell me if they know) if ATSG's contract has the same clause, as they have kept their cards much closer to their chest than Atlas has.
I'm not sure that's correct.

There is a fee stipulated:

Amazon’s right to Terminate the ATSA
Amazon may terminate the ATSA under the following circumstances:
• If shareholder approval of the Restricted Share Issuance is not obtained at the Special Meeting, Amazon may terminate the ATSA within 90 days of
the Special Meeting or the latest postponement or adjournment thereof.
• If Amazon elects not to terminate the ATSA within 90 days following a failure to obtain shareholder approval at the Special Meeting, unless Amazon
terminates the Investment Agreement, the Company will be required to seek shareholder approval of the Restricted Share Issuance at up to two
subsequent shareholder meetings and Amazon will have equivalent termination rights with respect to each such shareholder meeting.
• Once shareholder approval for the Restricted Share Issuance has been obtained, Amazon may terminate the ATSA for convenience (with an effective
date of termination no earlier than January 1, 2018) by providing the Company with 180 days’ advance notice of termination. In such case, Amazon
will be required to pay the Company a termination fee if the ATSA is terminated prior to May 3, 2021. There will be no termination fee if the ATSA is
terminated from and after May 3, 2021.
• Amazon may terminate the ATSA upon the consummation of a Change of Control Transaction (or a similar transaction involving Atlas Air or any
other designated affiliate carriers of Atlas Air providing services to Amazon under the ATSA).
• Amazon may terminate the ATSA upon the occurrence of certain customary events of defaults involving the Company or certain of its affiliates.
If Amazon terminates the ATSA (i) as a result of the failure to obtain shareholder approval of the Restricted Share Issuance or (ii) for convenience, Amazon will
not be entitled to accelerated vesting of the Warrants upon the consummation of a Change of Control Transaction. In all other circumstances, Amazon will be
entitled to accelerated vesting of the Warrants upon the consummation of a Change of Control Transaction (in the case of Warrant-B, subject to the satisfaction of
the conditions described above under “Vesting of Warrant-B”).
As for ATSG, I found this language, page 22:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...tationserv.htm
4.
TERM AND TERMINATION
4.1 Term. The term of this Agreement will begin as of the Effective Date and, unless earlier terminated in accordance with this Section 4, will continue until March 31, 2021.
4.2 Amazon Termination for Convenience. AFS may terminate this Agreement for convenience at any time by providing Airborne Global with 180 days’ prior written notice, except that AFS may not provide notice of its intent to terminate this Agreement under this Section 4.2 during the first 180 days after the Effective Date, except as described in Section 4.5.
4.3 Amazon Termination Fee. In the event AFS terminates this Agreement for convenience in accordance with Section 4.2, AFS will pay to Airborne Global a termination fee

22
Those portions of this Agreement marked with an[*] have been omitted pursuant to a request for confidential treatment and have been filed separately with the SEC.


(the “Amazon Termination Fee”). If AFS terminates this Agreement for convenience between the Effective Date and the end of the second Contract Year, the Amazon Termination Fee will be $[*]. If AFS terminates this Agreement for convenience after the second Contract Year, the Amazon Termination Fee will be $[*].
4.4 Payment of Amazon Termination Fee. In the event of an AFS termination for convenience, AFS will pay to Airborne Global the Amazon Termination Fee on or before the date of termination of this Agreement, in addition to any other amounts due under this Agreement to Airborne Global as of the date of termination (whether or not such amounts are yet invoiced or payable), and Amazon will have no further obligations or liabilities to Airborne Global under this Agreement following such termination. The Amazon Termination Fee will be deemed liquidated damages and not a penalty. For clarity, any amounts due under this Agreement to Amazon as of the date of termination (whether or not such amounts are yet invoiced or payable) will remain due. The Amazon Termination Fee applies only in the case of the termination of this Agreement, and not the termination of one or more Work Orders, however, in the event that Amazon terminates enough Work Orders for convenience such that there are less than[*] active Work Orders (for clarity, not including any fuel or ground handling Work Orders as described in Sections 2.7 and 2.8.1, respectively), Airborne Global may deem this an AFS termination for convenience by providing written notice to AFS at any time when there are less than[*] active Work Orders. If Airborne Global provides such notice, this Agreement will terminate on the[*] after AFS' receipt of such notice and AFS will pay the applicable Amazon Termination Fee on or before such termination date. The Agreement and any active Work Orders will continue to remain in effect for: (a)[*]; or (b) until the corresponding Work Order Expiration Date(s); whichever is earlier, and at AFS' sole option and upon its prior written request, AFS and Airborne Global will make all commercially reasonable efforts to enter into an interim crew, maintenance and insurance agreement in anticipation of the termination of this Agreement. For clarity, the reduction in the number of any Work Orders due to Force Majeure or the total or constructive total loss of an Aircraft as described in Section 2.15 will not trigger Airborne Global's right to deem such reduction an AFS termination for convenience under this Section 4.4.
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Old 03-22-2017, 03:00 PM
  #80  
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This guy gets it.

Originally Posted by J Dawg View Post
You are going to the other extreme by stating Amazon is trying to put UPS and FX out of business. No one ever said that. But just because Amazon might not be in the logistics and SCS business today does not mean that they are not rapidly moving in that direction. Just look who they are getting in bed with (DHL, ATSG, Atlas, etc). Getting whatever expertise they need won't be hard. I'm not sure why you mention sales cycles as if to suggest Amazon can't succeed there either. Unlike UPS which only provides a service, Amazon actually sells stuff. Soon they will provide a product and a service.

Trust me, as a UPS pilot this is very concerning to me (your "opportunist" remark is misdirected) and it should be to you as well. Again, all you gotta do is look at the size of their CVG plans and it's easy to see they want to get in the logistics and shipping business beyond their own stuff. I see no reason why they won't be successful especially considering their main competition is a trucking company using 1990's internet technology riding on 110 years of momentum, a company which has a proven track record of squandering growth opportunities and little desire to grow market share and reinvest profits in the company on the same level Amazon has been doing.
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