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Old 05-23-2008, 06:14 AM   #1  
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Default FDX - 727 Excess Bid Summary Data

Here's some rough 727 Excess Bid "summary data" from practice round #2 (...yeah, yeah, I had way too much time in the parking lot waiting for my son's soccer practice to end)

# 727 Capts "Bid to Relieve"

MEM - MD11 = 7
MEM - A300 = 19
MEM -757 = 2

Total 727 Capts "Bid to Relieve" = 28

# 727 FOs "Bid to Relieve"

MEM - MD11 - 15
MEM - A300 - 17
MEM - 727 - 15
ANC - MD11 - 2
LAX - MD11 - 2
MEM -757 - 21

Total 727 FOs "Bid to Relieve" = 72

# 727 SOs "Bid to Relieve"

MEM - MD11 = 6
MEM - A300 = 7
MEM - 727 = 32
ANC - MD11 = 3
LAX - MD11 =2
HKG - A300 = 3
MEM - 757 = 20

Total 727 SOs "Bid to Relieve" = 73

Combining these #s with the published "excess bid targets" (Capts = 30, FOs = 50, SOs =50) and the # of other pilots who bid "into" these seats on this practice bid (Capt's = 30, FOs = 25, SOs = 19) should yield the # of pilots in each seat who must be excessed.

# Excess Bid Targets + # Inbound Pilots - # Bid to Relieve = # Actually Excessed

Thus, for each seat....

727 Capts

30 (Target) + 30 (Inbound) - 28 (Bid to Relieve) = 32 (Excessed)

Note: Actual Round # 2 practice bid results show 34 Capt's were bumped down to the following seats...

MEM - MD11 = 18
MEM - A300 = 15
MEM - 727 = 1

Total Bumped = 34 (...I didn't have time yet to find why there is this discrepancy)

727 FOs

50 (Target) + 25 (Inbound) - 72 (Bid to Relieve) = 3 (Excessed)

Note: Actual Round #2 practice bid results show only 1 FO was bumped down, and that appeared to be voluntary....because his seniority didn't support him being bumped ()

727 SOs

50 (Target) + 19 (Inbound) - 73 (Bid to Relieve) = -4 (Excessed)

Note: Actual Round #2 shows Zero SOs being involuntarily excessed --- and 2 junior SOs bidding HKG, which partially explains the "negative" #.

It's clear there are a few "loose ends" here that I don't fully understand/haven't identified yet --- but that's my first pass analysis of the data as I try to understand how the 727 excess bid was/is processed.

Anyone who can see why the #s don't add up perfectly, please chime in.

Last edited by DLax85; 05-23-2008 at 06:17 AM. Reason: clarity
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Old 05-23-2008, 06:48 AM   #2  
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Part of the settlement states no 727 SOs will be involuntarily excessed. Which is easy to declare because they can't be involuntarily sent to an FDA anyway.

After the inbounds and the voluntary excesses were accounted for secondary awards came into play. That, I'm thinking, created the negative number. I don't think secondary awards without the reason "excessed" were excessed.

Last edited by Gunter; 05-23-2008 at 07:20 AM. Reason: clarify
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Old 05-23-2008, 06:59 AM   #3  
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I count at least 4 727 FOs with secondary awards, including the guy going to SO. He is too senior to be excessed down to SO anyway.


BTW, Thanks for doing the leg work. Good info.

Last edited by Gunter; 05-23-2008 at 07:08 AM. Reason: Praise for the stats
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Old 05-23-2008, 07:11 AM   #4  
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Hey Stickboy, you know if you moved to the planet, then your boy would be playing lacrosse instead of that sissy Futbol!!

Hey, is this guy a referee in your soccer league?

http://youtube.com/watch?v=86AJje3ElDc

Looks like you'll be pouring my coffee soon!!

TSD
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Old 05-23-2008, 09:14 AM   #5  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twiceskunkeddog View Post

Looks like you'll be pouring my coffee soon!!

TSD
TSD,

All kidding aside...You assume 727 SOs will actually get trained as 727 FOs.

I heard a rumor 727 FO training will get stalled. The company would like to have 727 SOs skip 727 FO and go right to wide FO when the pipeline gets going again with the introduction of the 777.

The path to 757 FO could be much quicker.

Food for thought.
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Old 05-23-2008, 09:39 AM   #6  
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Gunter,

Interesting rumor and it may be true. However, many of the names on the 727 FO Practice bid #2 list are former "awardees" from 07-03. Under the settlement agreement, those who had an award AND their training date has passed will go to training "immediately(ish)" assuming they are re-awarded the position on 08-02. I was around half way down the humpee list, so I imagine by the time that this training letter gets written most of the 07-03 FOs will have passed their training dates.

Not to say that I'm right and you're wrong, it's just that I and others fall into a slightly different category. That being said, NOTHING will surprise me going forward.


TSD

P.S. I would love to skip Boeing FO all together, but I may be double excessing if it works out right. (Relieve Excess SO to FO and then Relieve Excess NB FO to WB FO). Of course, I'm on Version 12.0 of my plan for world domination, so what the H E double Hockey Sticks do I know!
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Old 05-23-2008, 09:56 AM   #7  
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Narrowbody FO passover pay is small potatoes.

IMHO other priorities will take precedence.

Last edited by Gunter; 05-23-2008 at 10:14 AM. Reason: grammar
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Old 05-23-2008, 10:05 AM   #8  
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Um.... Ok?

I'm cornfused because I wasn't talking about passover pay. I was talking about going to training.

Not that it matters, yes, there are other priorities.

TSD
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Old 05-23-2008, 10:09 AM   #9  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twiceskunkeddog View Post
Gunter,

P.S. I would love to skip Boeing FO all together, but I may be double excessing if it works out right. (Relieve Excess SO to FO and then Relieve Excess NB FO to WB FO). Of course, I'm on Version 12.0 of my plan for world domination, so what the H E double Hockey Sticks do I know!

Sounds like a good plan.

Those of us who did not have an award canceled are in a slightly different boat.

I also wonder about the next excess bid after this one (I put the odds on that as greater than 50%). If widebody CAs filter down to widebody FO and widebody FOs filter down to 727 FO, it could result in quite a few 727 FOs (or awardees) displaced. That makes 757 FO more attractive to me.
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Old 05-23-2008, 10:19 AM   #10  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gunter View Post
Sounds like a good plan.

Those of us who did not have an award canceled are in a slightly different boat.

I also wonder about the next excess bid after this one (I put the odds on that as greater than 50%). If widebody CAs filter down to widebody FO and widebody FOs filter down to 727 FO, it could result in quite a few 727 FOs (or awardees) displaced. That makes 757 FO more attractive to me.
What if those widebody FOs went to the 75? Why do you think they would go to the 72? Just curious.

FJ
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