The real money to be gained in an excess is pushing down Airbus FOs and ANC FOs to 727 SO.

In an excess the company is going to have to buy some houses in ANC. In a furlough they don't they have to buy the houses.

So, if the company commits to Asia SIBA and cutting 727 flying, a furlough of up to 300 could happen without an excess bid. No house buying. Lots of Airbus FO's still available for SIBA.

 

But in order to push those ANC FOs and Airbus FOs to 27 SO.. it is going to require house buying (For the ANC folks) and a very long training letter with lots of events. The cascade effect will be substantial. The incremental approach is definitely more cost effective. Just doing enough... it worked for the company on the LOA right?

 

You're right. It's easier to just furlough them in place instead of having an excess first.

 

OK...furlough up to 300 total to wipe out the ANC FOs in place.

So who operates the back of the 727?

 

There would still be about 80 SOs left. 20 more coming from the back of the -10.

Also, lots of Airbus and MD bubbas available. I think they could handle some extra flying.

When are the next few 757's getting into service?

 

Feb 727 SO bidpack #s

155 hard lines of flying
30 VTO lines
53 Reserve lines

Total = 238

I think the "Furlough 300 from the beginning" approach is "high risk" and would require major "system form" change (i.e. Bus and MD-11s now flying 727 city pairs)...and move packages to those headed north to replace the displaced ANC FOs.

There are 80 727s currently on property, with approximately 57 scheduled to fly each day.

Planned decrease is minus 10 jets down to 70 727s in 2010.

Given the 90 727 SO's receiving POP in the back MUST bid 727 FO on each and every bid to keep their POP, even a "-1" bid in the 727 FO seat would push approx 40 current SOs up to FO...and approximately 40 FOs back to SO.

...and all this training could be done "in house".

My guess is they will look to harvest the low hanging fruit, and thus train in increments and furlough (if any) in increments.

 

Would have to be a -1 in 757 too or no one would go to 727SO, 757FO is pretty junior now.

If the purple nuggets are furloughed then the MEM 11 and Airbus and 727 FO guys will excess to ANC and get their houses bought.

If the excess is big enough HKG FO will be filled and may even end up with the same passover situation as Capt.

I think if there is an excess bid it will be to furough or to be in a position to furlough

 

Yes, it would require a system form change.

I don't think pushing down the 40 FOs will result in ANY SOs moving up to replace them. 63 hr average in the FO seat indicates overmanned. -1 in the FO seat all by itself will not allow an SO to upgrade, even if they get POP. There will be no -1 in the SO seat. We had an excess in the SO seat before to get the geazers back up front. They are now gone and there is no more incentive to do it.

 

An ANC FO excess does not result in MEM domiciled FO's getting a chance to bid ANC or even having their houses bought. They would not be affected.

They could simply reduce ANC flying so the nuggets don't get replaced.

 

OK --- I guess in your scenario they could put a "-40" in the FO seat and no excess in the SO seat....since it's not a "vacancy bid" the junior FOs get flushed down and the senior SOs sit tight.

Net effect would be 40 less FOs overall.

Looking at Feb bidpack #s we have:

Capts 309 total - 46 Pay Only= 263 available to fly

FOs 264 total - 34 Pay Only = 230 available to fly

SOs 275 total - 37 Pay Only= 238 available to fly

Under the scenario above you'd lose 40 FOs (190 available to fly) and gain 40 more SOs (278 available to fly)....with a -1 in both seat, it's just a wash.