So no excess in the Mem-based widebodies? huh??

But OK, as long as you are once again willing to make significant change to system form and/or buy alot more DH tickets.

Any expense in all that?

How do those expenses compare to buying up lines or cost of furlough?

I don't think any of us have access to that type of data.

 

Some SO's are going to training soon to 757 and 727 FO.

In ignoring my darkest outcome, -300, there would still be room for a smaller furlough without much change to the 727 flying schedule. The biggest problem is it would result in too many 727 CAs.

So the "smaller" option of an excess, as I see it -

20-40 ANC FOs
20-40 727 CAs
20-40 Airbus FOs
-1 757 FO
-1 up to 40 727 FOs (I think the SO POP issue is tertiary)

Result - About 50-100 more 727 SOs

 

Bottom 40 727 FOs can be forced to back seat ---- are not senior enough to hold 757/FO.

757 is a "growth" airplane and the training letter expires this fall (...plus alot of NDs bid it last year and will leave the jet in 2-4 yrs)

It's OK to get fat in the 757, especially with previous WB guys. It accomplishes the company goal of carrying any excess in NB seats rather than WB seats. They need not force them to 727 seat to accomplish that goal.

727 is on a slow glidepath to retirement in 2015 and is currently evenly manned across crew positions.

Putting "some extra" in the back eliminates some POP and does put them in a position for a small furlough.

...and of course that's all they really need to justify the reduced BLGs for a long, long time.

 

The company doesn't want to excess MD11 and Airbus at the same time. Folks will just bid to relieve by moving over to the other. They learned that on 08-03. Besides, the MD11 is not as overmanned as people think. With DHs they can be used to cover LAX and ANC trips too. You think 727 training is expensive? MD11 training is a royal pain in the arse for the company.

DH tickets will be accepted for a time until things settle down

 

BTW, thanks for doing the number crunching. I don't get into the details like that. Just working with round figures.

The company has a habit of making a move and accepting short term costs so that the longer term looks the way they want it. That explains a lot. There is a lot of inefficiency because it is difficult to predict the future and airplanes/crews need to be ready when needed. Long lead times are often required. But some costs are borne due to simple error. Kinda hard to tell the difference sometimes.

 

I agree their current goal may be your last sentence, but since we're now going to make some initial guesses for each seat, I'll go with:

- 20-40 Airbus Capts and FOs (I really haven't studied this part at all)
-1 777 Capt and FO (..though only the FO portion will be effective)
-1 727 FO
-1 727 SO (not really sure this is needed for my logic)
Zero ANC
Zero 757
-+20 A300 HKG FO Vacancy

Net effects:
- 40 swap seats in 727 FO and SO
- some bump and flush in 777
- some increase in ANC (but not much as guys take 777 or 757 in Mem over moving/commuting to ANC)
-increase in 757 Capt and FO
-...and a few more folks bid HKG FO

Then run the #s on training costs, move packages, etc.

If they don't like the #s, cancel the whole bid (except the HKG vacancies of course) and start all over again.

I don't think they are in panic mode ---- they are going to forge ahead deliberately and incrementally.

 

You mean evenly "overmanned" right? 10 fewer airplanes in 2010 indicates it will get worse.

 

Latest statements I've heard from "mgmt" is 727 is "currently" "properly manned"....but yes it will be in a continual state of "overmanning" as that fleet draws down over the next 6-7 years, but then again there should be 757 vacancy bids over the same time period as that jet ramps up.

....or they fill the 757 with excessed WB Capts and FOs looking to stay in MEM.

 

-1 727 FO and SO and zero in ANC???

You are giving some of those that missed out on the MD11 bandwagon a chance to go....without much flush downward.

Very incremental. Radical even. You see no furlough then

 

I wonder why the 727 bid pack was recently broken into 3 separate sets of lines.

Based on that I think there will be a reduction in CA and/or FO or a plus up in SO.