Toast1927

I keep on hearing rumblings that come Peak this year the system is going to crumble.

I know after only 5 years I don't know anything, but I was wondering why? I am guessing that UPS can get 1 plane or 100 planes for Peak. To me it seems like Peak will actually be easier then in the past due to the fact that they will have more planes and crews that could take a flight.

Ok, I know what you are thinking, no carrier is sitting around with extra planes and crews just waiting for UPS to call, and they are certainly not going to higher and train crews for 5 weeks of flying. I agree. However, I would think the UPS will pay top dollar for extra lift if needed. I would think that top dollar from UPS will get a plane that might be normally flying autoparts in from Mexico.

Toast

Naven

You are right, they will have a bunch more subcontractors flying this peak then they did last year. However they are going to underestimate how many of us they need to operate this year and as long as we continue to hold the line peak will be a disaster.

They are still planning to add 25 crews (50 pilots) to ANC and they say they are going to furlough 50 more pilots. That will be a net reduction of 100 pilots in SDF, ONT and MIA. That would be 10 pilots out of every fleet and seat. Good luck with that.

ThreeSides

Is this coming from the same people who in the MOU days said "there's no way UPS will furlough!"?
Is this from the same people who in the post MOU days said "there's no way they'll furlough even 100!"?
Is this from the same people who when called to be accountable for their statements said "well it was only an opinion".

Maybe it's only an opinion, and we need to consider how much credibility it deserves.

All of that being said, I hope UPS finds it so difficult to find subcontractors for peak that it actually costs them more money than if they had floated the extra pilots. It would serve Davis and Kuehn right!

Toast1927

I thought that the addition of 25 crews to ANC was already staffed for in the last RIF bid?

There is still the additional 50 which will add to the pressure. However, added pressure doesn't mean a damn thing if the boxes move. Personally I think that Peak will be a relative vacation for UPS. Then after peak dump the "extra" 50.

Sideshow Bob

The latest fantasy/rumor is that the next bid will be a vacancy only (no RIF) to staff the coming museum exhibits (Cargolux -400's) FWIW.

aseweepay

I have heard that too, 40 new positions in ANC...not sure where they are going to get the bodies...Miami is begging for more lift and crews, there are JA calls in SDF and ONT...to cut any more lower 48 crews would really be stupid...oh...wait....I think I just realized what they will do....because they planned this a year ago and they can't take the blinders off...hypothetically, if things boomed for another 3 years and then slowed, at that time the powers that be would then justify what they are doing now by saying, "see...we predicted this slowdown 3 years ago".....folks, this is why you never let the bean counters run the company.....let the visionary business men/women (if there are any left) run the business, and they will call the bean counters when they want to expand or contract the business and need input as to the most efficient way to get the job done...

Sideshow Bob

I think that at least some of the impetus behind their "strategy" (beyond that they have always-not just recently assumed the world is ending next quarter) is that they look at $1.3 billion NET operating profit in one quarter and say "...that's good enough, why waste money on capital expenditures and perhaps reduce our sizable dividend payments that pay for my house in the Hamptons..." Just my theory that the gang at the top who really makes the calls are largely shorter timers who largely think about THEIR shorter term gains instead of positioning the company for after they've left. The UPS stock price (since going public) has been lackluster to say the least, and hence no huge gains there (unless they've been holders before it went public/split). The holders of huge blocks (managers/board members) make their money from dividends and as I recall are prohibited from selling off more than 10% of their stock in any given year (this may have changed) of their holdings even after they leave. So they don't really care if they dazzle Wall Street as much as say, Fed Ex, which has always been a sexier boutique stock with far more of the company trading on the street. The mid-level guys MAY want to grow the business, but they have no power. Then when they get the power, THEY become the short sighted short timers that only care about their dividend...sad vicious cycle.

Plus, they are almost Asian-like with the concept of face. They, apparently will cut their noses off to spite their face while stepping over dollars to pick up dimes. Lick Ball's latest video explaining the paltry reduction in furloughs is pretty humorous. When starting his sentence saying the IPA had nothing to do the reduction, his brow furrows and his whole face goes taught...pretty funny. Don't listen to the tripe being spewed by FQS' that we don't have an effect...we are making a dent.

JustUnderPar

UPS Airline Management has built a house of cards for peak 2010. ANY glitch in the system will not go well. We have always had plenty of "reserve/rescue" aircraft, crews standing by. Not this year.

I don't want the company to fail and lose money, as this may lengthen my furlough, but that is the ONLY thing that matters at this place. Service Failures. So with that being said I hope this year is less than stellar. I cannot believe I just said that!!

"Management Pilots (yeah right)" hang on. This is only the beginning. Lube up boys. You will need it.

Sideshow Bob

I think you're right to a hopefully large extent. As always, trying to predict what UPS will do is like pushing a blob of mercury around the floor...it goes everywhere and can be dangerous.

As for contract lift, bear in mind the Asian "peak" is around October, when inventories are built up state side. Once that passes, the Kalittas' and other non-scheds will have more free lift to offer to UPS at a premium. I would suspect that they will over contract on "hot" spares all over the place to cover where THEY think the weak points will be. It would be a good idea to closely monitor where they put them so we can plan.

That being said, "business" aside, they do have an almost surreal emotional attachment to "peak", although with the Davis regime in charge now they MAY not regard it quite so religiously and will be willing to take less revenue as they already have so much. I maintain that they are more than willing to lose revenue and market share to break/straight-jacket IPA and Teamsters. I think their plan MAY be to either accomplish that, or if unable play catch up if the economy doesn't double dip, in either of those cases they'll look brilliant. OTOH, if they can't break us and the economy accelerates they will play catch up as usual...in their myopic eyes they can't lose. Many in the X-Files crowd around here speculated that they actually wanted the Teamsters strike in '97, as they thought they had too much capacity/lower yield market share, and that profit margin was more important...kind of like Davis' apparent mentality. Others speculate that they never want more than 2,800 pilots regardless of the economy or system demand...hence the SCS conspiracy theories.

As I said, like mercury.

JustUnderPar

That is funny and brilliant!! I am gonna use that one if you don't mind!!