I honestly think it's going to get harder and harder to find pilots for regionals...things will get crazy competitive and regionals will come up with crazy pitches in the future to get candidates to come there. There will never be a shortage at the Legacy/Major level but the regionals are going to struggle to survive.

 

Here's one thing that they probably aren't telling the new hires at PSA, Mesa, and Compass. It's not a quick upgrade anymore. The quick upgrade is for new hires close to or at the 1000 121 SIC, 1000 135 PIC requirement for upgrade to a 121 PIC.

I wouldn't be surprised to see new hires this fall at Compass holding CA while in training if they meet the minimums. Basically we'll be hiring street CA. PSA and Mesa may see similar results. This only lasts for a short while, until the rate the current pilots start meeting the minimums catches up to the upgrade requirements.

Because those pilots will leap frog seniority in a way, that means those coming to PSA, Mesa, and Compass needing 1000 121 SIC time, will be seeing longer upgrades than their seniority could hold, since a bunch of junior pilots will be upgrading before them. It will take at least 1.5 years or longer for a new hire without the 1000 hours to achieve it. Possibly 2 years. Maybe a pilot or two can pull of 1000 hours in 1 year and 3 months (expect 3 months in training before you have a chance to bid for a lot of flying), but that will be very tough to pull off.

Normally you can guarantee upgrade at 50-55%, but now you will have to move up to 35-45% before you can hold it. Those hired without the time are looking at a 2-4 year upgrade now. Subject to change, depending on attrition of those that upgrade.

 

A two year upgrade? How tragic for those guys.

Stats from our training department show that those trying to upgrade with only 1000 hrs have a much lower pass rate than pilots with many years of 121 flying.

 

They still have to flow 150 pilots and the pool is drying up.

 

I just think their mins. were way above the current standard and with the competition out there it made no sense to make it harder for people to apply.

 

Never said it was tragic. More realistically it will be a 3-4 year upgrade for those hired at PSA, Mesa and Compass right now with zero 121 SIC or 135 PIC time.

What's tragic is telling those new hires, without any of the 1000 hour requirement, is the upgrade time will be less than 1.5 years for them. It will take them at least 1.5 years to get the 1000 hours and if the upgrade drops to less than that, pilots junior to them will be taking an earlier upgrade because of it. This means less upgrade slots in the future, when they do get the time, and dropping their guaranteed upgrade time frame from the 50% threshold to 35%-45% because junior pilots to them will already be CA.

People should have a good understanding what they are walking into and we don't need PSA, Mesa, and Compass recruiters/pilots telling potential candidates, with zero time, that they will be able to take advantage of upgrades less than a year.

The minimums are dropping and new hires are getting hotels because they can no longer find candidates. The next step is coming to the union and asking to raise first year pay. Which means negotiating compensation raises for all pilots. Endeavor is a good example of this.

 

looks like things are moving at Endeavor now. Last realignment changed to a vacancy with 35 captain upgrades.

 

1st world problems

 

They are still filling classes (10 per week). I believe this is a preemptive change based on a drying up pool. The have to continue to hire 40/m through most of the year.

 

Do new hires still have the flow to Delta? That could be a big incentive for folks.