Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
04-13-2020, 09:21 AM
#221
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 84
Another way to look at COVID-19 mortality and risk is to compare it to other diseases. The current risk of COVID-19 being deadly is less than 1%, likely less than 0.5%.
As pilots, we are at very high risk of melanoma. A JAMA article from last year estimated flight crews have a 5% risk of melanoma in their lifetime. Melanoma is usually fatal if not diagnosed in the early stages. It is the deadliest form of skin cancer, by far.
In a lockdown you can not see a dermatologist and you can not get diagnosed with melanoma, most cancer treatment is on hold. After the lockdown it will most likely take months to get a dermatological appointment.
Melanoma is just one example. No disease stops for a lockdown, but the diagnosis and treatment of it does.
As pilots, we are at very high risk of melanoma. A JAMA article from last year estimated flight crews have a 5% risk of melanoma in their lifetime. Melanoma is usually fatal if not diagnosed in the early stages. It is the deadliest form of skin cancer, by far.
In a lockdown you can not see a dermatologist and you can not get diagnosed with melanoma, most cancer treatment is on hold. After the lockdown it will most likely take months to get a dermatological appointment.
Melanoma is just one example. No disease stops for a lockdown, but the diagnosis and treatment of it does.
04-13-2020, 09:51 AM
#222
P/T Gear Slinger
Joined APC: May 2017
Position: Airbus
Posts: 824
Originally Posted by RiddleEagle18
It’s data. Not hard to look at it and see they are over peak.
Can you explain how you know "they are over the peak" based upon a chart that clearly demonstrates your simplistic interpretation is nothing more than a guess that has a 50% chance of being correct.
I spent some time reading and trying to figure out what's going on in Sweden because at first glance it is interesting. It appears there's a couple interesting things going on...
1. Their data reporting is delayed over the weekends and tends to catch up midweek. When you look at the specific dates of the peaks and valleys in the charts, it appears to confirm this. (I would argue, at this point, a midweek data trend continues to show an increase. If you look at the weekend data, they are climbing as well but have slowed just a bit.)
2. They are starting to impose more restrictions currently. If they're "over the peak", why would they increase restrictions?
04-13-2020, 09:51 AM
#223
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 75
Originally Posted by majorpilot
I’ll buy your approach if, and only if, next time you’re shooting an approach down to minimums with an emergency, you fling the door open for discussion from the peanut gallery. After all, what’s your “license” and “expertise” worth? Someone back there read something online about EXACTLY this situation, and their opinion is as valid as yours.
Put up or shut up. If you do, we will know because we will read about it and toast your gallant, final act...and pity those entrusted to your “professionalism.”
Put up or shut up. If you do, we will know because we will read about it and toast your gallant, final act...and pity those entrusted to your “professionalism.”
Wow...
Dr. Fauci parrots China...then, when he learned that the virus transmits human to human and WHO / China lied, he says “shut it down” ...and that’s “expert” that you’re banking on?
your analogy is completely lame, too. My jet is never a democracy. The USA, in FACT, is a democracy. Many died to protect our flag and our right to vote...
What ballot did Dr. Fauci appear on??
your logic is that questioning the APPOINTED and elected persons in a democracy makes me part of the probkem
God help us all when your “logic” is the majority
04-13-2020, 09:55 AM
#224
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 178
Originally Posted by The stillest
Wow...
Dr. Fauci parrots China...then, when he learned that the virus transmits human to human and WHO / China lied, he says “shut it down” ...and that’s “expert” that you’re banking on?
your analogy is completely lame, too. My jet is never a democracy. The USA, in FACT, is a democracy. Many died to protect our flag and our right to vote...
What ballot did Dr. Fauci appear on??
your logic is that questioning the APPOINTED and elected persons in a democracy makes me part of the probkem
God help us all when your “logic” is the majority
Dr. Fauci parrots China...then, when he learned that the virus transmits human to human and WHO / China lied, he says “shut it down” ...and that’s “expert” that you’re banking on?
your analogy is completely lame, too. My jet is never a democracy. The USA, in FACT, is a democracy. Many died to protect our flag and our right to vote...
What ballot did Dr. Fauci appear on??
your logic is that questioning the APPOINTED and elected persons in a democracy makes me part of the probkem
God help us all when your “logic” is the majority
04-13-2020, 12:07 PM
#227
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Hay guys.. Interesting conversation!
Figured since I'm bored, I'd throw in a few items for thought.
As some (many?) of you know.. I had (have) it! One week in the hospital after I couldn't take care of myself at home (alone) anymore. Had blood in my tissues during my coughing fit. Best call I ever made, dialing 911!
But here are the new points of discussion.
My hospital, Local and State Governments have NO Policy to get me 'off' the list.. and more importantly, to get me on the recovered list. I kid you not.
United Corp Medical Dept has been on top of this (with me) since they learned about me being in the hospital. THEY have been great.. along with our CPO (EWR/Fabian & crew).
How do I come back to work? Most countries have some sort of 2 negative tests and you're good to go.
Not here... at least not in NJ. NO Guidance.
Am I still contagious? Can I give it to others?
(Anyone who has flown with me knows when I sneeze in the cockpit, I always say- hold on, another one coming! I sneeze twice due to dust! Always have, always will. I also cough occasionally due to dust)
I posted something on my local town FB Page. They listed the numbers of Positives. 41 as of last week. Told them I'm one of the 41..
How many have been tested and been shown to be negative (they have that info!)
Who knows how many are or were positive at home and never got tested?
And then.. the pot stirrer.. How do I get off the list and on to the recovered list.
They (give them credit) posted a reply both on their page.. and privately to me. Basically they have no guidance from the state!
Also, and this one concerns ALL of us pilots-
I was told (before my positive test results) that my lung X Ray showed CV19 type lungs. Ok.
That is what prompted them to start me on the malaria pills (which worked for me, thank God!)
But I need/want another X Ray to see that my lungs have healed.
As ex military, those of you who were aircrew know we did the Altitude Chamber every so often. We work in a different environment than most people. What will I be like at 6000-8000ft cabin altitude?!
As it happens, I have my rescheduled LOE on the 3rd! So I'll have 2 clues-
1) when I fly out there and the cabin altitude is higher than NY/NJ.
B) when I'm walking around TK with the higher altitude
I WANT to come back! Too bored at home.. lol. But also need to know I am healthy to come back.
Just wanted to throw that out there~
Today I found out that a buddy of mine who is younger and was definitely healthier than me was just removed from his ventilator after 6 days! How the hell does that happen to him and I have a totally different experience?!
Paul "Tucker".. great dude, Delta Pilot, NYANG Pilot.
#TuckerTribe
https://www.gofundme.com/f/paul-tuck...-covid-support
Guys and gals.. Stay Healthy (as best you can) Stay Strong and Stay Well.
WE WILL OVERCOME THIS! Better days are ahead.
Always
Motch
Figured since I'm bored, I'd throw in a few items for thought.
As some (many?) of you know.. I had (have) it! One week in the hospital after I couldn't take care of myself at home (alone) anymore. Had blood in my tissues during my coughing fit. Best call I ever made, dialing 911!
But here are the new points of discussion.
My hospital, Local and State Governments have NO Policy to get me 'off' the list.. and more importantly, to get me on the recovered list. I kid you not.
United Corp Medical Dept has been on top of this (with me) since they learned about me being in the hospital. THEY have been great.. along with our CPO (EWR/Fabian & crew).
How do I come back to work? Most countries have some sort of 2 negative tests and you're good to go.
Not here... at least not in NJ. NO Guidance.
Am I still contagious? Can I give it to others?
(Anyone who has flown with me knows when I sneeze in the cockpit, I always say- hold on, another one coming! I sneeze twice due to dust! Always have, always will. I also cough occasionally due to dust)
I posted something on my local town FB Page. They listed the numbers of Positives. 41 as of last week. Told them I'm one of the 41..
How many have been tested and been shown to be negative (they have that info!)
Who knows how many are or were positive at home and never got tested?
And then.. the pot stirrer.. How do I get off the list and on to the recovered list.
They (give them credit) posted a reply both on their page.. and privately to me. Basically they have no guidance from the state!
Also, and this one concerns ALL of us pilots-
I was told (before my positive test results) that my lung X Ray showed CV19 type lungs. Ok.
That is what prompted them to start me on the malaria pills (which worked for me, thank God!)
But I need/want another X Ray to see that my lungs have healed.
As ex military, those of you who were aircrew know we did the Altitude Chamber every so often. We work in a different environment than most people. What will I be like at 6000-8000ft cabin altitude?!
As it happens, I have my rescheduled LOE on the 3rd! So I'll have 2 clues-
1) when I fly out there and the cabin altitude is higher than NY/NJ.
B) when I'm walking around TK with the higher altitude
I WANT to come back! Too bored at home.. lol. But also need to know I am healthy to come back.
Just wanted to throw that out there~
Today I found out that a buddy of mine who is younger and was definitely healthier than me was just removed from his ventilator after 6 days! How the hell does that happen to him and I have a totally different experience?!
Paul "Tucker".. great dude, Delta Pilot, NYANG Pilot.
#TuckerTribe
https://www.gofundme.com/f/paul-tuck...-covid-support
Guys and gals.. Stay Healthy (as best you can) Stay Strong and Stay Well.
WE WILL OVERCOME THIS! Better days are ahead.
Always
Motch
04-13-2020, 12:08 PM
#228
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Originally Posted by emersonbiguns
Just like they were over it on 3/15 and 4/4?
Can you explain how you know "they are over the peak" based upon a chart that clearly demonstrates your simplistic interpretation is nothing more than a guess that has a 50% chance of being correct.
I spent some time reading and trying to figure out what's going on in Sweden because at first glance it is interesting. It appears there's a couple interesting things going on...
1. Their data reporting is delayed over the weekends and tends to catch up midweek. When you look at the specific dates of the peaks and valleys in the charts, it appears to confirm this. (I would argue, at this point, a midweek data trend continues to show an increase. If you look at the weekend data, they are climbing as well but have slowed just a bit.)
2. They are starting to impose more restrictions currently. If they're "over the peak", why would they increase restrictions?
Can you explain how you know "they are over the peak" based upon a chart that clearly demonstrates your simplistic interpretation is nothing more than a guess that has a 50% chance of being correct.
I spent some time reading and trying to figure out what's going on in Sweden because at first glance it is interesting. It appears there's a couple interesting things going on...
1. Their data reporting is delayed over the weekends and tends to catch up midweek. When you look at the specific dates of the peaks and valleys in the charts, it appears to confirm this. (I would argue, at this point, a midweek data trend continues to show an increase. If you look at the weekend data, they are climbing as well but have slowed just a bit.)
2. They are starting to impose more restrictions currently. If they're "over the peak", why would they increase restrictions?
Farr, William, English medical statistician, 1807-1883.
Farr law - the curve of cases of an epidemic rises rapidly at first, then climbs slowly to a peak from which the fall is steeper than the previous rise.
It is also a pattern that has repeated itself quite nicely in many instances providing considerable evidence that COVID-19 does in fact follow the Farr law.
And, I would add relative to this thread the latest research is hinting that COVID-19 mortality rate may be very similar to that of the flu . . .
Preliminary German Study Shows a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate of about 0.4 Percent
Ronald Bailey 4.9.2020 -
Preliminary results are out from a COVID-19 case cluster study in one of the regions worst hit by Germany's coronavirus epidemic. They are somewhat reassuring.
One often-heard statistic is the "case fatality rate"—that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with a disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 3.5 percent for COVID-19 in the U.S., but this rate is significantly inflated because it does not count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who recover at home. What we really need to know is the infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.
Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while
-
-
Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates
The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*
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COVID-19 Navigating the Uncharted
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.
The New England Journal of Medicine - March 26, 2020
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968). . .
04-13-2020, 12:27 PM
#230
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Originally Posted by horrido27
Hay guys.. Interesting conversation!
Figured since I'm bored, I'd throw in a few items for thought.
As some (many?) of you know.. I had (have) it! One week in the hospital after I couldn't take care of myself at home (alone) anymore. Had blood in my tissues during my coughing fit. Best call I ever made, dialing 911!
. . .
Guys and gals.. Stay Healthy (as best you can) Stay Strong and Stay Well.
WE WILL OVERCOME THIS! Better days are ahead.
Always
Motch
Figured since I'm bored, I'd throw in a few items for thought.
As some (many?) of you know.. I had (have) it! One week in the hospital after I couldn't take care of myself at home (alone) anymore. Had blood in my tissues during my coughing fit. Best call I ever made, dialing 911!
. . .
Guys and gals.. Stay Healthy (as best you can) Stay Strong and Stay Well.
WE WILL OVERCOME THIS! Better days are ahead.
Always
Motch
I'm glad to hear you are doing ok, and thanks for sharing the info on a lack of "return to work" data.
Couple questions for you if you don't mind:
1) Have you tried ALPA medical?
2) When you went in to the hospital did they offer Zithromax along with Chloroquine?
3) Was there ever a discussion of the other option, Remdesivir?
4) Do you know if anyone you flew with ended up getting it as well?
5) Do you have any guesses where you got it?
Thanks again for sharing and hope you get back to the line soon!
Joe
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