Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
04-13-2020 | 05:02 PM
#241
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Joined: Nov 2017
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Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
Actually it’s not. It is a popular mis-conception. Read Article 4 of the Constitution.
The US is a Constitutional Republic, not a “democracy.” No American founding document, not the Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, or the Constitution mentions “democracy”. That’s because democracy was viewed as dangerous to the rights of minorities.
If you attended public school in the last 40 years, you are excused for not knowing.
Remember what Ben Franklin, one of the founders described when asked what kind of government the Continental Congress had been created. “A republic, if you can keep it”.
Thomas Jefferson thought democracies were dangerous because: “A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.”
The US is a Constitutional Republic, not a “democracy.” No American founding document, not the Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, or the Constitution mentions “democracy”. That’s because democracy was viewed as dangerous to the rights of minorities.
If you attended public school in the last 40 years, you are excused for not knowing.
Remember what Ben Franklin, one of the founders described when asked what kind of government the Continental Congress had been created. “A republic, if you can keep it”.
Thomas Jefferson thought democracies were dangerous because: “A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.”
I didn’t say we live in a democracy. Article I section 2 and the 17th amendment describes how the federal government (USA) is a democratic republic, not just a republic, like Rome was wherein senators were just appointed, not democratically voted in by the people. In other words, we vote for people to vote for us in congress.
If you want to say that we live in a constitutional democratic republic, I wouldn’t argue that. Our democratic republic is derived from our constitution.
Article 4 is partially dealing with federalism. The constitution doesn’t explain how to make the state governments a republic like it does with congress. The USA (federal government) guarantees to the states a republican form of government, like Rome (pre-empire) for example, not a monarchy like England. Originally, that’s how senators were chosen (Article 1 section 3). The senate was republican in that the senators were appointed by state legislators, yet not actually chosen by democratic vote of the people. Just one other note, republican form of government doesn’t just mean that people are chosen to represent us but it more strictly means that governance is a public interest, in that the people have a say in their own governance. This is achieved with democratic elections and appointments.
Maybe I’m pointing out a distinction without a difference? I hope that gets me a passing grade in civics?
Last edited by FXLAX; 04-13-2020 at 05:44 PM.
04-13-2020 | 05:08 PM
#242
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Joined: Nov 2017
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Likes: 1
I was looking into population density. I'm not sure there is a correlation. For example, New York is the most densely populated city in the country, and has 7,300 deaths as I write this. San Francisco, the second most densely populated city in the country has a total of 15 deaths. Los Angeles has 296 deaths, but it is less than 1/2 as dense as San Francisco.
San Francisco has (had) a huge amount of Asian flights, a large homeless, immunosuppresed population and a significant illicit drug problem. What the heck is going on?
By the way, the average age in New York is 2 years younger than that in San Francisco.
Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Belgium and Taiwan are some of the most densely populated places on the planet yet they don't have nearly the death of Italy and Spain (Italy and Spain are relatively rural nations).
We can then go back to the whole lock down, social distancing thing. Florida was one of the last states to social distance, yet to date they only have 470 deaths (and a heck of a lot of elderly people). Sweden has no lockdowns, yet a fatality rate that is a fraction of the United Kingdom (severe lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing).
So, is the data just garbage?
There is loosely a connection to overall health and age to the risk of death, but other than that it is really difficult to find a correlation. The more I dig into this I see there aren't many standards in medicine -- there are significant differences in how, what and why constitute a COVID death from nation to nation. I'm familiar with hard (real) sciences myself, reading through some of the studies I've seen on COVID remind me of physics studies from World War I. It's disconcerting that significant policy and social changes are made on pseudo-science that lacks consensus, to say the least.
The one thing that does stand out, thank goodness, is that children are almost never affected significantly. All the data shows that unless a child already has a severe underlying condition it is almost unheard of they will become significantly ill.
San Francisco has (had) a huge amount of Asian flights, a large homeless, immunosuppresed population and a significant illicit drug problem. What the heck is going on?
By the way, the average age in New York is 2 years younger than that in San Francisco.
Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Belgium and Taiwan are some of the most densely populated places on the planet yet they don't have nearly the death of Italy and Spain (Italy and Spain are relatively rural nations).
We can then go back to the whole lock down, social distancing thing. Florida was one of the last states to social distance, yet to date they only have 470 deaths (and a heck of a lot of elderly people). Sweden has no lockdowns, yet a fatality rate that is a fraction of the United Kingdom (severe lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing).
So, is the data just garbage?
There is loosely a connection to overall health and age to the risk of death, but other than that it is really difficult to find a correlation. The more I dig into this I see there aren't many standards in medicine -- there are significant differences in how, what and why constitute a COVID death from nation to nation. I'm familiar with hard (real) sciences myself, reading through some of the studies I've seen on COVID remind me of physics studies from World War I. It's disconcerting that significant policy and social changes are made on pseudo-science that lacks consensus, to say the least.
The one thing that does stand out, thank goodness, is that children are almost never affected significantly. All the data shows that unless a child already has a severe underlying condition it is almost unheard of they will become significantly ill.
Maybe the disparity in reporting COVID deaths is making a difference in your analysis? Honestly, I haven’t looked it as close as you have. It was my observation from a lay person. Certainly, age, medical conditions, age, health care systems, homelessness, population density, etc all muddies the waters.
04-13-2020 | 07:39 PM
#244
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Joined: Dec 2012
Posts: 291
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I was looking into population density. I'm not sure there is a correlation. For example, New York is the most densely populated city in the country, and has 7,300 deaths as I write this. San Francisco, the second most densely populated city in the country has a total of 15 deaths. Los Angeles has 296 deaths, but it is less than 1/2 as dense as San Francisco.
San Francisco has (had) a huge amount of Asian flights, a large homeless, immunosuppresed population and a significant illicit drug problem. What the heck is going on?
By the way, the average age in New York is 2 years younger than that in San Francisco.
Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Belgium and Taiwan are some of the most densely populated places on the planet yet they don't have nearly the death of Italy and Spain (Italy and Spain are relatively rural nations).
We can then go back to the whole lock down, social distancing thing. Florida was one of the last states to social distance, yet to date they only have 470 deaths (and a heck of a lot of elderly people). Sweden has no lockdowns, yet a fatality rate that is a fraction of the United Kingdom (severe lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing).
So, is the data just garbage?
There is loosely a connection to overall health and age to the risk of death, but other than that it is really difficult to find a correlation. The more I dig into this I see there aren't many standards in medicine -- there are significant differences in how, what and why constitute a COVID death from nation to nation. I'm familiar with hard (real) sciences myself, reading through some of the studies I've seen on COVID remind me of physics studies from World War I. It's disconcerting that significant policy and social changes are made on pseudo-science that lacks consensus, to say the least.
The one thing that does stand out, thank goodness, is that children are almost never affected significantly. All the data shows that unless a child already has a severe underlying condition it is almost unheard of they will become significantly ill.
San Francisco has (had) a huge amount of Asian flights, a large homeless, immunosuppresed population and a significant illicit drug problem. What the heck is going on?
By the way, the average age in New York is 2 years younger than that in San Francisco.
Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Belgium and Taiwan are some of the most densely populated places on the planet yet they don't have nearly the death of Italy and Spain (Italy and Spain are relatively rural nations).
We can then go back to the whole lock down, social distancing thing. Florida was one of the last states to social distance, yet to date they only have 470 deaths (and a heck of a lot of elderly people). Sweden has no lockdowns, yet a fatality rate that is a fraction of the United Kingdom (severe lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing).
So, is the data just garbage?
There is loosely a connection to overall health and age to the risk of death, but other than that it is really difficult to find a correlation. The more I dig into this I see there aren't many standards in medicine -- there are significant differences in how, what and why constitute a COVID death from nation to nation. I'm familiar with hard (real) sciences myself, reading through some of the studies I've seen on COVID remind me of physics studies from World War I. It's disconcerting that significant policy and social changes are made on pseudo-science that lacks consensus, to say the least.
The one thing that does stand out, thank goodness, is that children are almost never affected significantly. All the data shows that unless a child already has a severe underlying condition it is almost unheard of they will become significantly ill.
04-13-2020 | 07:57 PM
#245
P/T Gear Slinger
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 886
Likes: 40
From: Airbus
Sweden’s data for Monday is in....
Do you want to reconsider your claim?
Exactly, and we’ll see another peak later this week even higher than last week’s as Sweden’s herd immunity approach bites them in the arse.
Do you want to reconsider your claim?
Exactly, and we’ll see another peak later this week even higher than last week’s as Sweden’s herd immunity approach bites them in the arse.
Last edited by emersonbiguns; 04-05-2021 at 06:40 PM.
04-13-2020 | 11:02 PM
#246
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,215
Likes: 0
From: Capt
A bit under half of the economy and people involved in it are booming. I bet medical folks are dreaming about some pretty epic vacations right now with the overtime they are getting. But the other half will be flat broke.
I wouldn't guess what travel volume will look like in 6, 12, or 18 months. But I will guess it is going to be pretty grim in 6 months. Recessions take a couple of years to climb out of .
I wouldn't guess what travel volume will look like in 6, 12, or 18 months. But I will guess it is going to be pretty grim in 6 months. Recessions take a couple of years to climb out of .
04-13-2020 | 11:09 PM
#247
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Joined: Mar 2007
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From: Capt
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
04-13-2020 | 11:30 PM
#248
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Joined: Mar 2007
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From: Capt
Sweden:
"“I’m deeply concerned,” (Swedish) virology professor Fredrik Elgh told state broadcaster SVT. Epidemiologist Joacim Rocklov told the FT it was “a huge experiment” that could go “crazily” wrong. Mathematician Marcus Carlsson, less politely, said it amounted to “Russian roulette.”"
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...own-try-sweden
14Apr2020 Death Rates:
Sweden: 0.71
US: 0.39
US flu: 0.10
Avg annual US flu deaths (last nine years): 37,400
With our death rate of 0.39, we are on track for about 150,000 deaths.
If we had the Swedish death rate, we would be on track for about 265,000 deaths. Sweden is not looking good right now, that's for sure. And, that's not counting the additional deaths due to medical care overload. For example, Scotland right now has about a 60% year-over-year increase in the death rate right now, because of "normal" medical problems that people aren't getting treated for, because of the Cvirus.
"“I’m deeply concerned,” (Swedish) virology professor Fredrik Elgh told state broadcaster SVT. Epidemiologist Joacim Rocklov told the FT it was “a huge experiment” that could go “crazily” wrong. Mathematician Marcus Carlsson, less politely, said it amounted to “Russian roulette.”"
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...own-try-sweden
14Apr2020 Death Rates:
Sweden: 0.71
US: 0.39
US flu: 0.10
Avg annual US flu deaths (last nine years): 37,400
With our death rate of 0.39, we are on track for about 150,000 deaths.
If we had the Swedish death rate, we would be on track for about 265,000 deaths. Sweden is not looking good right now, that's for sure. And, that's not counting the additional deaths due to medical care overload. For example, Scotland right now has about a 60% year-over-year increase in the death rate right now, because of "normal" medical problems that people aren't getting treated for, because of the Cvirus.
04-14-2020 | 01:02 AM
#249
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Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 700
Likes: 0
Actually it’s not. It is a popular mis-conception. Read Article 4 of the Constitution.
The US is a Constitutional Republic, not a “democracy.” No American founding document, not the Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, or the Constitution mentions “democracy”. That’s because democracy was viewed as dangerous to the rights of minorities.
If you attended public school in the last 40 years, you are excused for not knowing.
Remember what Ben Franklin, one of the founders described when asked what kind of government the Continental Congress had been created. “A republic, if you can keep it”.
Thomas Jefferson thought democracies were dangerous because: “A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.”
The US is a Constitutional Republic, not a “democracy.” No American founding document, not the Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, or the Constitution mentions “democracy”. That’s because democracy was viewed as dangerous to the rights of minorities.
If you attended public school in the last 40 years, you are excused for not knowing.
Remember what Ben Franklin, one of the founders described when asked what kind of government the Continental Congress had been created. “A republic, if you can keep it”.
Thomas Jefferson thought democracies were dangerous because: “A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.”
It seems like everybody might be able to save some face, as based on the link I've posted below, it turns out that our system is an alphabet soup of all the disputed terminologies.
Apparently, The United States is both a democracy and a republic.
The stricter classification would be Federal Constitutional Representative Democracy (whew!), which can also be termed as a Federal Constitutional Republic.
The article is clearly written, and states why all the terms in the strict classification applies/is appropriate to the naming of our system of government.
https://act.represent.us/sign/democracy-republic/
Last edited by All Bizniz; 04-14-2020 at 01:32 AM.
04-14-2020 | 02:49 AM
#250
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Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 84
Likes: 0
Sweden:
"“I’m deeply concerned,” (Swedish) virology professor Fredrik Elgh told state broadcaster SVT. Epidemiologist Joacim Rocklov told the FT it was “a huge experiment” that could go “crazily” wrong. Mathematician Marcus Carlsson, less politely, said it amounted to “Russian roulette.”"
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...own-try-sweden
14Apr2020 Death Rates:
Sweden: 0.71
US: 0.39
US flu: 0.10
Avg annual US flu deaths (last nine years): 37,400
With our death rate of 0.39, we are on track for about 150,000 deaths.
If we had the Swedish death rate, we would be on track for about 265,000 deaths. Sweden is not looking good right now, that's for sure. And, that's not counting the additional deaths due to medical care overload. For example, Scotland right now has about a 60% year-over-year increase in the death rate right now, because of "normal" medical problems that people aren't getting treated for, because of the Cvirus.
"“I’m deeply concerned,” (Swedish) virology professor Fredrik Elgh told state broadcaster SVT. Epidemiologist Joacim Rocklov told the FT it was “a huge experiment” that could go “crazily” wrong. Mathematician Marcus Carlsson, less politely, said it amounted to “Russian roulette.”"
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...own-try-sweden
14Apr2020 Death Rates:
Sweden: 0.71
US: 0.39
US flu: 0.10
Avg annual US flu deaths (last nine years): 37,400
With our death rate of 0.39, we are on track for about 150,000 deaths.
If we had the Swedish death rate, we would be on track for about 265,000 deaths. Sweden is not looking good right now, that's for sure. And, that's not counting the additional deaths due to medical care overload. For example, Scotland right now has about a 60% year-over-year increase in the death rate right now, because of "normal" medical problems that people aren't getting treated for, because of the Cvirus.
Per Johns Hopkins as of this morning, the death rate for the US is 7.19 per 100,000 citizens.
Denmark's death rate is 5.08 per 100,000 citizens
Sweden's death rate is 8.98 per 100,000 citizens
Assuming the data is correct (perhaps that isn't a good assumption) Sweden seems to be doing fine. We are dealing with very small numbers for each country.
Compare those death rates to the nations with the most strict lockdowns:
Spain 38.0
Belgium 34.2
Italy 33.9
France 22.4
UK 17.1
Just going by the data the nations with the most severe lockdowns have the highest death rates. I don't pretend to know what the heck is going on here, but as of now there is no scientific evidence lockdowns and stay at home orders through public policy have done much good.
Separating people to avoid viral disease has it's benefits, but on a societal scale until we know the data we are using is valid...well, I think there is a lot to be learned here.
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