Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
04-18-2020, 08:36 AM
#281
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,083
Originally Posted by OVC010CB
Preliminary/non peer review findings from New York indicate obesity is the #1 risk factor (after age) for COVID cases requiring hospitalization. It seems like the same data is being replicated in Europe as well (second link)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/h...gher-risk.html
https://www.europeanscientist.com/en...t-in-the-room/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/h...gher-risk.html
https://www.europeanscientist.com/en...t-in-the-room/
Yep. It’s one thing to have health problems that come out of left field. Quite another when you knowingly do it to yourself and then demand expensive medical care to “fix it” without ever changing the underlying problem.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/americ...o-coronavirus/
04-18-2020, 11:34 AM
#282
You look like a nail
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 451
Originally Posted by The stillest
600,000 + die every year from cancer In the USA - there’s still no vaccine or cure ...and yet I’m still allowed to eat Twinkies, drink bourbon, and smoke cigarettes as I please.
the absolute hysteria over coronavirus is amazing.
PS: both my kids likely had it.. multiple flu tests negative and we were refused covid-19 testing back in December.
the absolute hysteria over coronavirus is amazing.
PS: both my kids likely had it.. multiple flu tests negative and we were refused covid-19 testing back in December.
COVID is highly virulent, maybe you’ve heard that? Supporting reopening the economy without testing, monitoring, or effective treatment based on a straw man just makes you an a-hole.
04-18-2020, 11:48 AM
#283
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 84
Originally Posted by Thor
Cancer, twinkies, bourbon, and smoking is YOUR choice and to my knowledge none of those are contagious.
COVID is highly virulent, maybe you’ve heard that? Supporting reopening the economy without testing, monitoring, or effective treatment based on a straw man just makes you an a-hole.
COVID is highly virulent, maybe you’ve heard that? Supporting reopening the economy without testing, monitoring, or effective treatment based on a straw man just makes you an a-hole.
https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus...s-shelter.html
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...e-coronavirus/
If it isn't yet endemic, with numbers shown in the above two studies it will likely become endemic in a matter of days or weeks. Social distancing, isolation and lockdowns become less effective as the disease spreads, at a point herd immunity begins to become effective -- the best estimates with COVID-19 are 50-70% per the latest science.
By the time comprehensive testing can be established, my guess is that it will effectively be useless. This virus has spread much faster than man can study or react to it.
04-18-2020, 12:32 PM
#284
You look like a nail
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 451
Originally Posted by OVC010CB
It is quite possible COVID-19 is already endemic, especially in metropolitan areas in the Northeast United States.
https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus...s-shelter.html
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...e-coronavirus/
If it isn't yet endemic, with numbers shown in the above two studies it will likely become endemic in a matter of days or weeks. Social distancing, isolation and lockdowns become less effective as the disease spreads, at a point herd immunity begins to become effective -- the best estimates with COVID-19 are 50-70% per the latest science.
By the time comprehensive testing can be established, my guess is that it will effectively be useless. This virus has spread much faster than man can study or react to it.
https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus...s-shelter.html
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...e-coronavirus/
If it isn't yet endemic, with numbers shown in the above two studies it will likely become endemic in a matter of days or weeks. Social distancing, isolation and lockdowns become less effective as the disease spreads, at a point herd immunity begins to become effective -- the best estimates with COVID-19 are 50-70% per the latest science.
By the time comprehensive testing can be established, my guess is that it will effectively be useless. This virus has spread much faster than man can study or react to it.
Where does "quite possible" fit into the scientific method that IMO should be used as the basis for public health policy?
04-18-2020, 12:53 PM
#285
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 84
Originally Posted by Thor
Where does "quite possible" fit into the scientific method that IMO should be used as the basis for public health policy?
Step 3 of the scientific method is a hypothesis.
Step 5 are observations and data.
Step 6 is conclusion.
Save this thread and let's see how these posts age. Let those of us interested come back and draw conclusions of public policy effectiveness in a couple months time.
I would argue the current public policy regarding COVID-19 was made destructively obsolete by the last 3 weeks of data (Step 5) and at no time has public policy regarding COVID-19 been formulated using the scientific method.
04-18-2020, 01:56 PM
#286
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 84
This research is updated as new data comes in:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
It was last updated on April 17th. While COVID-19 is likely more deadly than a typical influenza IFR, it is now scientifically possible it is no deadlier. Let that sink in for a moment.
The lower estimate of the most up to date research shows COVID-19 is no deadlier than a typical influenza.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
It was last updated on April 17th. While COVID-19 is likely more deadly than a typical influenza IFR, it is now scientifically possible it is no deadlier. Let that sink in for a moment.
The lower estimate of the most up to date research shows COVID-19 is no deadlier than a typical influenza.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*
04-18-2020, 02:51 PM
#287
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 491
Originally Posted by OVC010CB
This research is updated as new data comes in:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
It was last updated on April 17th. While COVID-19 is likely more deadly than a typical influenza IFR, it is now scientifically possible it is no deadlier. Let that sink in for a moment.
The lower estimate of the most up to date research shows COVID-19 is no deadlier than a typical influenza.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
It was last updated on April 17th. While COVID-19 is likely more deadly than a typical influenza IFR, it is now scientifically possible it is no deadlier. Let that sink in for a moment.
The lower estimate of the most up to date research shows COVID-19 is no deadlier than a typical influenza.
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*
04-18-2020, 03:57 PM
#289
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2013
Position: B737 CA
Posts: 226
Originally Posted by Thor
Cancer, twinkies, bourbon, and smoking is YOUR choice and to my knowledge none of those are contagious.
COVID is highly virulent, maybe you’ve heard that? Supporting reopening the economy without testing, monitoring, or effective treatment based on a straw man just makes you an a-hole.
COVID is highly virulent, maybe you’ve heard that? Supporting reopening the economy without testing, monitoring, or effective treatment based on a straw man just makes you an a-hole.
Your're an a-hole.
04-18-2020, 04:12 PM
#290
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Position: It's a plane and it's a seat
Posts: 951
Originally Posted by Thor
Cancer, twinkies, bourbon, and smoking is YOUR choice and to my knowledge none of those are contagious.
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