Is COVID-19 really that deadly.
04-19-2020, 11:33 PM
#311
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Position: Line holder
Posts: 513
Originally Posted by BMEP100
Remember what Ben Franklin, one of the founders described when asked what kind of government the Continental Congress had been created. “A republic, if you can keep it”.[/color]
04-19-2020, 11:39 PM
#312
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Position: Line holder
Posts: 513
Originally Posted by OVC010CB
So, is the data just garbage?
There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
I’m sure anyone who really wants will find challenges with the information, and even now there is still so much that seems to be unknown.
I read somewhere that when Ebola hit, the US sent 14,000 medical staff to Africa where they were able to gather data and get a little ahead. Do we have that kind of presence in NY or other hot spots collecting, refining and testing the information?
04-19-2020, 11:44 PM
#313
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2018
Position: Line holder
Posts: 513
Originally Posted by OVC010CB
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Per Johns Hopkins as of this morning, the death rate for the US is 7.19 per 100,000 citizens.
Denmark's death rate is 5.08 per 100,000 citizens
Sweden's death rate is 8.98 per 100,000 citizens
Assuming the data is correct (perhaps that isn't a good assumption) Sweden seems to be doing fine. We are dealing with very small numbers for each country.
Compare those death rates to the nations with the most strict lockdowns:
Spain 38.0
Belgium 34.2
Italy 33.9
France 22.4
UK 17.1
Just going by the data the nations with the most severe lockdowns have the highest death rates. I don't pretend to know what the heck is going on here, but as of now there is no scientific evidence lockdowns and stay at home orders through public policy have done much good.
Separating people to avoid viral disease has it's benefits, but on a societal scale until we know the data we are using is valid...well, I think there is a lot to be learned here.
Per Johns Hopkins as of this morning, the death rate for the US is 7.19 per 100,000 citizens.
Denmark's death rate is 5.08 per 100,000 citizens
Sweden's death rate is 8.98 per 100,000 citizens
Assuming the data is correct (perhaps that isn't a good assumption) Sweden seems to be doing fine. We are dealing with very small numbers for each country.
Compare those death rates to the nations with the most strict lockdowns:
Spain 38.0
Belgium 34.2
Italy 33.9
France 22.4
UK 17.1
Just going by the data the nations with the most severe lockdowns have the highest death rates. I don't pretend to know what the heck is going on here, but as of now there is no scientific evidence lockdowns and stay at home orders through public policy have done much good.
Separating people to avoid viral disease has it's benefits, but on a societal scale until we know the data we are using is valid...well, I think there is a lot to be learned here.
04-20-2020, 06:18 AM
#314
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Narrow/Left Wide/Right
Posts: 3,655
Originally Posted by majorpilot
Remember what Mark Twain said. Something like (too lazy to look up direct quote)
There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
I’m sure anyone who really wants will find challenges with the information, and even now there is still so much that seems to be unknown.
I read somewhere that when Ebola hit, the US sent 14,000 medical staff to Africa where they were able to gather data and get a little ahead. Do we have that kind of presence in NY or other hot spots collecting, refining and testing the information?
There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
I’m sure anyone who really wants will find challenges with the information, and even now there is still so much that seems to be unknown.
I read somewhere that when Ebola hit, the US sent 14,000 medical staff to Africa where they were able to gather data and get a little ahead. Do we have that kind of presence in NY or other hot spots collecting, refining and testing the information?
Actually at it's worst, thousands of medical personnel were volunteering to go to NYC (the only place that has been overwhelmed so far in the US).
It is a testament to our system that everyone who needed help/treatment/ventilator (even in NYC) has had access to one which cannot be said of Italy and Spain which likely led to most of their poorer outcomes in this crisis.
04-20-2020, 07:29 AM
#315
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Originally Posted by majorpilot
Congratulations, glad you’re through it! Thank you for sharing your experience. It’s important if fear is to be overcome that people begin to know first-hand survivors, who can relate their own experience, which may help others.
I just read an account by a physician who tested positive who was offered and took the same drugs, but afterwards was upset with himself because he wasn’t aware of the potential side effects depending on one’s other conditions and medications, which have caused fatalities. But it had no adverse affect for him and it’s great it worked out for you.
I hope the experts are able to collect all of this data and keep sharing it so we can do everything possible to bring medical mitigation and prevention into play as soon as possible. I wonder how we can distinguish those of us who’ve recovered from those of us who are still vulnerable, no one seems to have a good plan for that yet. It would reassure people (assuming they can even lock down whether someone recovered is truly immune, which we sure hope is the case)!
Thank you also for your positive attitude. It’s important to remember we humans are all on the same page and in this together, it would be great if everyone remembered that.
I just read an account by a physician who tested positive who was offered and took the same drugs, but afterwards was upset with himself because he wasn’t aware of the potential side effects depending on one’s other conditions and medications, which have caused fatalities. But it had no adverse affect for him and it’s great it worked out for you.
I hope the experts are able to collect all of this data and keep sharing it so we can do everything possible to bring medical mitigation and prevention into play as soon as possible. I wonder how we can distinguish those of us who’ve recovered from those of us who are still vulnerable, no one seems to have a good plan for that yet. It would reassure people (assuming they can even lock down whether someone recovered is truly immune, which we sure hope is the case)!
Thank you also for your positive attitude. It’s important to remember we humans are all on the same page and in this together, it would be great if everyone remembered that.
I had 4 EKG's done in the hospital. Thought it was strange but now I understand.. they were looking for side effects from the meds they were using on me! My symptoms, experiences and now recovery is VERY different than the 4 people I personally know that have also have/had it. I'm using the word "have" because the worse case guy is still the hospital after being on a ventilator for almost a week! Finally out of ICU too.. he was healthier than me going in! Younger, in better shape.
The other couple have battled it at home and are finally on the road to recovery. But they also have had a few different symptoms. There are still some unknowns.
The reason I mentioned 'facts' is this. Guess it was the NYT's (forgive me!) that found a correlation between obesity and Corona Death. Someone figured out early on that this thing is a respiratory bastards. If you have ANY Lung issues, and you get this.. not good.
Lets be brutally honest here for a second. Us pilots (for the most part) are probably healthier than a large portion of our population. That IS a positive.
It takes a while to come up with a treatment since every treatment might have some unexpected negative reaction. The drugs they gave me (I Believe) worked. And (hopefully) I'm over the hump. But Pulmonary Doc I teleconferenced the other day mentioned that- It's a Virus. Might take 2 weeks to clear, could take 6 weeks to clear!
But for a large part of our population (Those with underlying healthy issues, smokers, obese, and the elderly) this thing still hasn't hit them. Social distancing and the shutdowns have only helped to slow it down. LOTS of people are probably still going to be exposed and/or catch it.
Today I'm finally going for my first retest. Expect another tomorrow or Wed. Next week I'm going in for Chest XRay and see how my lungs are doing. Still coughing a little bit but now its allergy season so I don't know if the cough is still post Corona or now dust/pollen! LOL
However, until last week I was told (and I read) that once you had it and were negative.. you were in the clear. Now I'm hearing that MIGHT NOT be the case! So many unknowns still.
Guys & Gals, hang in there. It's not over by any means and it's gonna be a LONG Year.
But this too shall pass, and a New Normal will take over.
WE WILL OVERCOME THIS! Better days are ahead.
Always
Motch
PS) and of course... please, you and your family- Stay Healthy, Safe & Well
PPS) As I'm writing this I hear it > Go outside and see it >. CV22 Osprey flying by!
THAT means it's gonna be a great day! Stay Positive~
04-20-2020, 07:35 AM
#316
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 75
Originally Posted by majorpilot
Dude, no one is attacking YOU...what you wrote is enough of an admission, no one needs to do anything but acknowledge it. That’s what you’re seeing...
You keep doing you, and we won’t try to reason with you. Fair enough?
You keep doing you, and we won’t try to reason with you. Fair enough?
my jet was equated with a democracy and it was suggested that I solicit input from the passengers on how to handle an emergency
when you read an accident report, it, more often than not, says, “the PIC took his/her plane...”
it being the Captain’s plane clearly has your panties in a ruffle and I mean nothing more by saying it than that... there’s only one PIC and the analogy comparing my jet to a democracy isn’t sound.
next, i was attacked. That’s the typical route taken by those who can’t argue the facts.. I get it
my reasonableness isn’t in question... and I’m glad there are good people like you on here to show that through your posts
04-20-2020, 08:07 AM
#317
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Originally Posted by OVC010CB
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Per Johns Hopkins as of this morning, the death rate for the US is 7.19 per 100,000 citizens.
Denmark's death rate is 5.08 per 100,000 citizens
Sweden's death rate is 8.98 per 100,000 citizens
Assuming the data is correct (perhaps that isn't a good assumption) Sweden seems to be doing fine. We are dealing with very small numbers for each country.
Compare those death rates to the nations with the most strict lockdowns:
Spain 38.0
Belgium 34.2
Italy 33.9
France 22.4
UK 17.1
Just going by the data the nations with the most severe lockdowns have the highest death rates. I don't pretend to know what the heck is going on here, but as of now there is no scientific evidence lockdowns and stay at home orders through public policy have done much good.
Separating people to avoid viral disease has it's benefits, but on a societal scale until we know the data we are using is valid...well, I think there is a lot to be learned here.
Per Johns Hopkins as of this morning, the death rate for the US is 7.19 per 100,000 citizens.
Denmark's death rate is 5.08 per 100,000 citizens
Sweden's death rate is 8.98 per 100,000 citizens
Assuming the data is correct (perhaps that isn't a good assumption) Sweden seems to be doing fine. We are dealing with very small numbers for each country.
Compare those death rates to the nations with the most strict lockdowns:
Spain 38.0
Belgium 34.2
Italy 33.9
France 22.4
UK 17.1
Just going by the data the nations with the most severe lockdowns have the highest death rates. I don't pretend to know what the heck is going on here, but as of now there is no scientific evidence lockdowns and stay at home orders through public policy have done much good.
Separating people to avoid viral disease has it's benefits, but on a societal scale until we know the data we are using is valid...well, I think there is a lot to be learned here.
They have had a pretty severe lockdown too. And just like the US, there are areas that got hit hard, and other areas (like the former East Germany) that have been mild.
I like numbers. Find them interesting. But a number only tells you a little bit of the answer without more info.
What is the average age of those countries population?
What does their health care system look like?
Those who died in those countries.. what was their age? Health status? Weight? Smokers or non smokers?
As I posted in another thread- At some point, someone will make the decision to re-open the economy.. Slowly and with limitations, but it will and must happen. It's simply a matter of numbers!
Keep it closed, x amount die.
Open it, and x + y amount die.
Keep in closed, z amount of small business file bankruptcy and unemployment goes to w
Start to re-open and z - u of small business survive and unemployment goes to w - u
The only unknowns are what is the value of x,y, z, w, and u.
And are we willing to accept those values.
What is the value of a human life? It always comes down to money and lets also be brutally honest, every human life has a different value.
I know, cold.. but true.
Hang in There
Motch
04-20-2020, 09:33 AM
#318
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: 737/FO
Posts: 195
Originally Posted by horrido27
I noticed you didn't add Germany in you list..
They have had a pretty severe lockdown too. And just like the US, there are areas that got hit hard, and other areas (like the former East Germany) that have been mild.
I like numbers. Find them interesting. But a number only tells you a little bit of the answer without more info.
What is the average age of those countries population?
What does their health care system look like?
Those who died in those countries.. what was their age? Health status? Weight? Smokers or non smokers?
As I posted in another thread- At some point, someone will make the decision to re-open the economy.. Slowly and with limitations, but it will and must happen. It's simply a matter of numbers!
Keep it closed, x amount die.
Open it, and x + y amount die.
Keep in closed, z amount of small business file bankruptcy and unemployment goes to w
Start to re-open and z - u of small business survive and unemployment goes to w - u
The only unknowns are what is the value of x,y, z, w, and u.
And are we willing to accept those values.
What is the value of a human life? It always comes down to money and lets also be brutally honest, every human life has a different value.
I know, cold.. but true.
Hang in There
Motch
They have had a pretty severe lockdown too. And just like the US, there are areas that got hit hard, and other areas (like the former East Germany) that have been mild.
I like numbers. Find them interesting. But a number only tells you a little bit of the answer without more info.
What is the average age of those countries population?
What does their health care system look like?
Those who died in those countries.. what was their age? Health status? Weight? Smokers or non smokers?
As I posted in another thread- At some point, someone will make the decision to re-open the economy.. Slowly and with limitations, but it will and must happen. It's simply a matter of numbers!
Keep it closed, x amount die.
Open it, and x + y amount die.
Keep in closed, z amount of small business file bankruptcy and unemployment goes to w
Start to re-open and z - u of small business survive and unemployment goes to w - u
The only unknowns are what is the value of x,y, z, w, and u.
And are we willing to accept those values.
What is the value of a human life? It always comes down to money and lets also be brutally honest, every human life has a different value.
I know, cold.. but true.
Hang in There
Motch
PS all your calculations are true and I don’t envy those who have to sift through and analyze incomplete data sets to make the best possible choice. I’ll offer up prayers to what ever God(s) there are for guidance, wisdom, intuition, insight, etc... be given to any and all people in positions of authority to make those awful decisions. None of them are what I would call good.
04-20-2020, 09:37 AM
#319
Seat 0B
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: 777 FO
Posts: 791
Don't know if this has been posted here yet but if these numbers hold true well, you can draw your own conclusions. Many, many more infected than previously thought with the mortality rate much lower than what is being reported, somewhere around .12-.2%. Stanford is a pretty good school BTW.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/...ord-estimates/
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...a-clara-county
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/...ord-estimates/
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...a-clara-county
04-20-2020, 11:32 AM
#320
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Originally Posted by Sixty N Two
Ive been coming back to this thread mostly for your updates (don’t know you personally) and what you’re hearing from others as you had the front line experience. Please let us know how the X-ray looks and what you learn about future side effects and subsequent immunity. Thanks for the information and I understand yours is a small sample but it one piece of data I take for truth. Please take care of yourself, glad you’re on the mend.
PS all your calculations are true and I don’t envy those who have to sift through and analyze incomplete data sets to make the best possible choice. I’ll offer up prayers to what ever God(s) there are for guidance, wisdom, intuition, insight, etc... be given to any and all people in positions of authority to make those awful decisions. None of them are what I would call good.
PS all your calculations are true and I don’t envy those who have to sift through and analyze incomplete data sets to make the best possible choice. I’ll offer up prayers to what ever God(s) there are for guidance, wisdom, intuition, insight, etc... be given to any and all people in positions of authority to make those awful decisions. None of them are what I would call good.
Gonna post something on the thread I started.
Be Well.. Stay Strong
Motch
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