It's just the flu!
04-18-2020, 02:34 PM
#51
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Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,297
Originally Posted by OVC010CB
It is now scientifically within the realm of possibility to say COVID-19 is no deadlier than a typical flu. It is likely more deadly, but traditionally as pandemics evolve the CFR and iFR decrease.
It is currently inaccurate to say "it is way more deadly than the flu". This is not politics, this is international peer reviewed science. But of course this will become very political, and rightly so. Because the crap is about to hit the fan.
It is currently inaccurate to say "it is way more deadly than the flu". This is not politics, this is international peer reviewed science. But of course this will become very political, and rightly so. Because the crap is about to hit the fan.
This thing is shaping up to have an IFR similar to the flu, but is likely more infectious due at least in part to the flu's herd immunity/vaccinations.
04-18-2020, 02:35 PM
#52
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Joined APC: Mar 2014
Posts: 139
Latest antibody study in California showed that apparently there were 50 to 85 people that had had the virus for every 1 confirmed case. All of those people presumably had no symptoms (or at least not enough to ever bother getting tested). Meaning the fatality rate is 50 to 85 times lower than previously thought.
There had been 900 confirmed cases in this county. Now they estimate the actual number of cases in this county to have been between 48,000 and 81,000.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....14.20062463v1
There had been 900 confirmed cases in this county. Now they estimate the actual number of cases in this county to have been between 48,000 and 81,000.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....14.20062463v1
04-18-2020, 03:03 PM
#53
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 472
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
"An analysis of the blood of some 3,300 people living in Santa Clara county in early April found that one in every 66 people had been infected....... the researchers estimate that between 48,000 and 82,000 of the county’s roughly 2 million inhabitants were infected with the virus at that time — numbers that contrast sharply with the official case count of some 1,000 people reported in early April, not yet reveiwed"
This is a really inexpensive way to get an incredible amount of information,” says Jayanta Bhattacharya, a health economist at Stanford University in California and a co-author of the study.
The Santa Clara team estimated an IFR for the county of 0.1–0.2%, which would equate to about 100 deaths in 48,000-82,000 infections. As of 10 April, the county's official death count was 50 people. The study's IFR is lower than the IFR used in models by researchers at Imperial College London, which estimated an IFR for Great Britain on the basis of data from China to be 0.9%. In another study, the same group estimated an IFR for China of 0.66%, and a study of deaths on the Diamond Princess cruise ship estimated an IFR of 0.5%.
"An analysis of the blood of some 3,300 people living in Santa Clara county in early April found that one in every 66 people had been infected....... the researchers estimate that between 48,000 and 82,000 of the county’s roughly 2 million inhabitants were infected with the virus at that time — numbers that contrast sharply with the official case count of some 1,000 people reported in early April, not yet reveiwed"
This is a really inexpensive way to get an incredible amount of information,” says Jayanta Bhattacharya, a health economist at Stanford University in California and a co-author of the study.
The Santa Clara team estimated an IFR for the county of 0.1–0.2%, which would equate to about 100 deaths in 48,000-82,000 infections. As of 10 April, the county's official death count was 50 people. The study's IFR is lower than the IFR used in models by researchers at Imperial College London, which estimated an IFR for Great Britain on the basis of data from China to be 0.9%. In another study, the same group estimated an IFR for China of 0.66%, and a study of deaths on the Diamond Princess cruise ship estimated an IFR of 0.5%.
04-18-2020, 03:37 PM
#54
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,273
[QUOTE=barabek;3035342]
Sorry, but it's not a flu. It is easily contagious like a flu, butt's way more deadly. There's a reason the whole world is taking it seriously. This talking point that "it's just a flu and the media is blowing it up" becomes a dangerous political game that's gonna jeopardize the recovery, and even further delay the economical rebound.
In 2009 1 million people died from the flu with vaccinations. I would say the flu is worse especially considering the degree of immunity and vaccinations world wide.
Originally Posted by sailingfun
Sorry, but it's not a flu. It is easily contagious like a flu, butt's way more deadly. There's a reason the whole world is taking it seriously. This talking point that "it's just a flu and the media is blowing it up" becomes a dangerous political game that's gonna jeopardize the recovery, and even further delay the economical rebound.
04-18-2020, 03:48 PM
#55
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Joined APC: Oct 2018
Posts: 564
[QUOTE=sailingfun;3035468]
In 2009 1 million people died from the flu with vaccinations. I would say the flu is worse especially considering the degree of immunity and vaccinations world wide.
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
Originally Posted by barabek
In 2009 1 million people died from the flu with vaccinations. I would say the flu is worse especially considering the degree of immunity and vaccinations world wide.
04-18-2020, 04:15 PM
#56
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Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,273
[QUOTE=OpMidClimax;3035471]
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
World wide more than 1 million died.
Originally Posted by sailingfun
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
04-18-2020, 05:04 PM
#58
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Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: A320
Posts: 293
[QUOTE=sailingfun;3035486]
World wide more than 1 million died.
An estimated 1.4 billion infected.
Children also died at alarming rates yet schools remained open. Over 1800 children.
We've been duped folks
Originally Posted by OpMidClimax
World wide more than 1 million died.
Children also died at alarming rates yet schools remained open. Over 1800 children.
We've been duped folks
04-18-2020, 05:14 PM
#59
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Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 514
Originally Posted by Nvrgofullretard
How many influenza cases go unreported? Doesn’t the same metric apply too? I’m not very smart. I can fly planes ok, but beyond that I know that I don’t know if you know what I’m sayin, you know?
04-18-2020, 05:32 PM
#60
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Posts: 1,629
https://news.yahoo.com/york-city-rev...205328540.html
So.. lets ask ourselves this-
Why would a city do this.. it literally increased they death total by over 30% in a day?!
I have read/heard that cities are getting $15K per CV19 death. Can't find the source and honestly don't believe it.. but then this kind of stupidity happens. Yesterday I heard that they are 'finding' more elderly folks dead in certain mortuaries here in NJ. Seems that someone else if actually trying to run the exact opposite plan of NYC?
Comes down to you don't know what to believe anymore.
I do know this much- There are 78,467 confirmed cases of CV19 in NJ currently (as of 18 Apr)
State has a population of slightly over 9 million (per 2017 data.. 9.006 miliion)
Lets say there are 3 times the amount of those how have or had it already.. but never/haven't been tested.
it means that NJ has/had 2.6% of the population infected.
If you look at current death stats- NJ has had 3840. Lets double it for the 'unknowns' over the last 2 months..
it means that NJ has/had 3.2% death rate.
But.. if you look at the death rate per the population-
.085%
This thing is a *****, don't get me wrong. Had it and mostly recovered. I say mostly because there is no official way to get me onto the recovered list! I kid you not.
NJ currently shows 802 recovered. A pathetic 1.022% recovery rate.
WTF is going on?!
Again, this thing is bad but we have destroyed our economy and God knows how many people/families/businesses are ruined financial over this.. over very small percentages.
We need to get WAY more tests! We need more masks and sanitizers. We need new social distance guidelines. We need to figure out ways for people to open their businesses back up.
Restaurant use to seat 100.. well, maybe for now it seats 40.
Movie theaters only allowed to seat 25% of their capacity. Everyone must wear a mask.
But somebody better come up with some sort of plan. The average American citizen won't put up with this for more than another 2 weeks.. let alone 2 months!
Just my opinion but the numbers came from-
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?...xbOg5oOA%2c%2c
Stay Strong, Stay Healthy & Be Well
Motch
So.. lets ask ourselves this-
Why would a city do this.. it literally increased they death total by over 30% in a day?!
I have read/heard that cities are getting $15K per CV19 death. Can't find the source and honestly don't believe it.. but then this kind of stupidity happens. Yesterday I heard that they are 'finding' more elderly folks dead in certain mortuaries here in NJ. Seems that someone else if actually trying to run the exact opposite plan of NYC?
Comes down to you don't know what to believe anymore.
I do know this much- There are 78,467 confirmed cases of CV19 in NJ currently (as of 18 Apr)
State has a population of slightly over 9 million (per 2017 data.. 9.006 miliion)
Lets say there are 3 times the amount of those how have or had it already.. but never/haven't been tested.
it means that NJ has/had 2.6% of the population infected.
If you look at current death stats- NJ has had 3840. Lets double it for the 'unknowns' over the last 2 months..
it means that NJ has/had 3.2% death rate.
But.. if you look at the death rate per the population-
.085%
This thing is a *****, don't get me wrong. Had it and mostly recovered. I say mostly because there is no official way to get me onto the recovered list! I kid you not.
NJ currently shows 802 recovered. A pathetic 1.022% recovery rate.
WTF is going on?!
Again, this thing is bad but we have destroyed our economy and God knows how many people/families/businesses are ruined financial over this.. over very small percentages.
We need to get WAY more tests! We need more masks and sanitizers. We need new social distance guidelines. We need to figure out ways for people to open their businesses back up.
Restaurant use to seat 100.. well, maybe for now it seats 40.
Movie theaters only allowed to seat 25% of their capacity. Everyone must wear a mask.
But somebody better come up with some sort of plan. The average American citizen won't put up with this for more than another 2 weeks.. let alone 2 months!
Just my opinion but the numbers came from-
https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?...xbOg5oOA%2c%2c
Stay Strong, Stay Healthy & Be Well
Motch
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