It's just the flu!
04-20-2020 | 10:48 AM
#81
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Joined: Mar 2020
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You've been downplaying this from the start. Never underestimate one's ability to refuse to acknowledge they were wrong.
In 2 months, it's already killed over 41,000 Americans, more than the annual fatalities caused by flu. And that's AFTER locking down the whole country. It has a revised R₀ of greater than 5.7, which means it's about 6x more contagious than flu.
I've come to the conclusion that most thick headed individuals will continue to downplay this right up to the point that it hits home for them. A spouse. A parent. A friend. Or even themselves. Until then it's a hoax, or the flu, or a conspiracy to get us to brush our teeth.
Anything but a global killer.
In 2 months, it's already killed over 41,000 Americans, more than the annual fatalities caused by flu. And that's AFTER locking down the whole country. It has a revised R₀ of greater than 5.7, which means it's about 6x more contagious than flu.
I've come to the conclusion that most thick headed individuals will continue to downplay this right up to the point that it hits home for them. A spouse. A parent. A friend. Or even themselves. Until then it's a hoax, or the flu, or a conspiracy to get us to brush our teeth.
Anything but a global killer.
I haven’t read about the newest R0 estimates. Do you have a link? The number I see is 2.6.
As more people become infected and develop antibodies it’s reasonable to assume the R0 decreases as their are less hosts able to transmit the virus.
04-20-2020 | 10:57 AM
#82
Doing One Pilot's Job
Joined: Sep 2005
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https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
I believe the 5.7 R0 represents early in the epidemic in Wuhan, not necessarily what was seen in Europe or the US.
I believe the 5.7 R0 represents early in the epidemic in Wuhan, not necessarily what was seen in Europe or the US.
Originally Posted by FTFA
We found R0 is likely to be 5.7 given our current state of knowledge, with a broad 95% CI (3.8–8.9). Among many factors, the lack of awareness of this new pathogen and the Lunar New Year travel and gathering in early and mid-January 2020 might or might not play a role in the high R0.
04-20-2020 | 11:04 AM
#83
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Joined: Mar 2020
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https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
I believe the 5.7 R0 represents early in the epidemic in Wuhan, not necessarily what was seen in Europe or the US.
I believe the 5.7 R0 represents early in the epidemic in Wuhan, not necessarily what was seen in Europe or the US.
04-20-2020 | 12:12 PM
#84
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Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 293
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From: A320
https://youtu.be/__MYRVVWbyE
good numbers coming out of Florida
thank heavens they don’t have a meth head as governor. Florida would have wound up like Michigan, NY, Illinois and NJ
hmm I’m seeing a pattern
good numbers coming out of Florida
thank heavens they don’t have a meth head as governor. Florida would have wound up like Michigan, NY, Illinois and NJ
hmm I’m seeing a pattern
04-20-2020 | 12:57 PM
#85
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Joined: Apr 2017
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The initial fatality rate estimate for COVID-19 from the WHO was 3.8%. The newest estimate is 0.10-0.36%. 11 to 38 times less than initially feared.
I haven’t read about the newest R0 estimates. Do you have a link? The number I see is 2.6.
As more people become infected and develop antibodies it’s reasonable to assume the R0 decreases as their are less hosts able to transmit the virus.
I haven’t read about the newest R0 estimates. Do you have a link? The number I see is 2.6.
As more people become infected and develop antibodies it’s reasonable to assume the R0 decreases as their are less hosts able to transmit the virus.
Regarding the updated R₀, CDC updated it on April 7. Way more contagious than initially predicted.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
So even with a low CFR % of 0.4%, it's so contagious it could infect 200 million Americans. Do the math. That's 800,000 Americans dead.
04-20-2020 | 02:27 PM
#87
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Regarding the CFR it was never 3.8%, even from the beginning. It varies tremendously depending on age group, and normalized across the population it averages out to about 0.5% CFR. That's never changed.
Regarding the updated R₀, CDC updated it on April 7. Way more contagious than initially predicted.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
So even with a low CFR % of 0.4%, it's so contagious it could infect 200 million Americans. Do the math. That's 800,000 Americans dead.
Regarding the updated R₀, CDC updated it on April 7. Way more contagious than initially predicted.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
So even with a low CFR % of 0.4%, it's so contagious it could infect 200 million Americans. Do the math. That's 800,000 Americans dead.
04-20-2020 | 02:31 PM
#89
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The point is that it's killing people faster than the flu in part because there is no vaccine yet or extensive testing and medical knowledge for corona virus. We don't know how many people would actually be infected and die from the flu if it were to be a novel virus the way the corona virus currently is. But it would be more than 60k. It will be interesting to see covid death after a couple years and developments of therapies and vaccines.
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